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When are you going fully electric?

Discussion in 'Motors' started by Ricochet J, Aug 23, 2018.

  1. satchef1

    Mobster

    Joined: Apr 17, 2009

    Posts: 3,822

    Odd. The market leaders in AV technology all use cameras to read road signs...

    The problem with a database is it's useless unless it is updated in real-time, with no errors. With static signs, this is maybe a believable possibility, but with a significant chance of bad data caused by human error. With temporary signs, there is no chance of good data. Too many individuals and organisations use them, sometimes for very short periods of time. There is no way every one could be relied upon to supply data that is accurate and up-to-date, every time.

    If AVs need to use a camera to read temporary signs, the system is still open to abuse.

    If both a database and a camera are used, what happens when they disagree? Do you assume the database is accurate, ignoring the possibility of bad, out-dated, or missing data? Or do you assume the road sign is correct?

    This isn't something I made up for a forum post. It's a well-known and we'll documented challenge in the development of AVs. They can (and do) misread road signs due to vandalism, damage, overgrown foliage, and a whole host of other hazards. There is every chance that this could be exploited for malicious purposes.
     
    Last edited: Dec 30, 2018
  2. Amp34

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jul 25, 2005

    Posts: 28,518

    Location: Canada

    Tesla don’t have level 3 automation, let alone level 4/5. The autonomous technology in the Semis will be a glorified autopilot seen in the Model S/3, a driver assist technology, not an autonomous technology. That’s not to say autonomous lorries are not in the future. I’m guessing by 2025 there will be numerous automated lorries being tested and working small scale on public roads on certain routes. Whether it’s Tesla is another matter. Their level 2 technology is pretty good, but it’s just that. There are lots of companies playing with level 4 systems however (including companies like Volvo).

    As for autonomous lorries/trucks/machines off public roads. Many quarries have been using automated dump trucks and other vehicles for the best part of a decade. Many of them without anyone in a cab at all.

    There are several things to consider when talking about autonomous systems and the future of car ownership:

    The technology and systems - things like the use of cameras and lidar, but also where companies are working. Companies like Tesla are starting from the “highway” side - driving on simple, defined roads at high speeds, companies like Wayno are starting from the “town” side of things, where systems have to be far more complex to deal with all the variables. So far there’s no evidence that those systems that work well in simple “highway” environments (like Autopilot) will translate to working well in town situations.

    Public requirements also factor in. As significant proportion of the population need/want more than a ridesharing system will provide. Having to remove all your belongings every trip (and store them), find specialist vehicles (for example if you want to carry bikes or other equipment) and people that just require a lot of “stuff” in their vehicles. Hailing a vehicle works fine if you’re just commuting to work, but for a family or more specialist vehicle it’s going to be such a pain to use (where do you store your child seats when you go to the shops for example), or do you hire the vehicle for the entire time you are there (extra expense). Now think about doing that every day? Why not just lease/buy?

    And remember, while automation is going to come to taxi fleets first, it’ll become available in public vehicles pretty quickly after. Why not buy/lease an automated, electric vehicle and have all the benefits of the future ride hailing vehicle? You end up with the same situation as we have now, which leads to the question - why do people still own cars now, when Uber is so cheap?

    The people that believe AV is going to wholesale change the car ownership model always like to compare AV ride hailing vehicle against current ICE vehicle. Sure, it looks great, but once you compare EV AV personal vehicle against EV AV ride hailing vehicle the benefits are just not as strong, especially when you start considering practicality. If money wa small that matters then more people would take public transport and drive around in superminis. They don’t though, in part because of the practicality reasons mentioned above.
     
  3. bimbleuk

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Sep 10, 2009

    Posts: 1,454

    Location: Gloucestershire

    We have plenty of wind power potential so that will steadily increase and Chargers have to be smarter from July next year so they can receive signals from the grid.

    "All newly installed home EV charge points that have received government funding must feature ‘smart’ technology from July 2019, it has been announced today (Friday 14th December).
    The move is part of the UK Government’s Road to Zero strategy, and will see home units able to be remotely accessed, and capable of receiving, interpreting, and reacting to a signal. Smart charging capabilities have the potential to dramatically reduce the load on the National Grind during peak times, minimising the cost of charging for users, and the price of infrastructure upgrades for network operators."
     
  4. Psycho Sonny

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jun 21, 2006

    Posts: 29,659

    you do realise the biggest windfarm in europe was recently launched in the UK. they are also constantly building more and more? you are talking probably £50 billion spent by just 1 company on them.

    there are other companies out there too.
     
  5. Simon

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 21, 2002

    Posts: 22,403

    Location: Berks / Moscow

    Every petrol station in the U.K. is effectively a power station with the amount of energy they can output.

    Imagine 8 pumps with 35 litres a minute. This is around 3.5kg/sec @ 44MJ / litre.

    =154MW.

    Whitelee wind farm. The second biggest in Europe is 540MW
     
  6. Psycho Sonny

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jun 21, 2006

    Posts: 29,659

    when is a petrol station with 8 pumps running 24/7?

    it takes drivers 2 minutes to park up, get out their car and put their card in, etc. then you have also have all the time nobody is at the pumps.

    so you would be lucky for a pump to be doing 1/10th of what you are suggesting.

    so 15MW compared to 540MW
     
  7. Simon

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 21, 2002

    Posts: 22,403

    Location: Berks / Moscow

    maybe in Glasgow. Try a 16 or 24 pump station on the motorway.

    Anyway it’s not about average. It’s about peak demand which is where limitations come in.

    My point was merely to highly the massive entergy density of fuel versus a single windfarm being able to be significant source of energy.

    Also what happens when there is no wind ?
     
  8. Skidder

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Nov 28, 2007

    Posts: 11,704

    Anyone driven or have a view on I-pace. My contract hire is coming to an end on my X5 later this year and seriously considering one as an option. I love the X5 but have had two in a row and fancy a change. Other options are a last hurrah with fuel and a used range rover or may be a macan. Appreciate they are all quite different.
     
  9. Psycho Sonny

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jun 21, 2006

    Posts: 29,659

    i've driven to england including london several times.

    on the 24 pump motorway you were lucky to find 2 other cars filling up.

    because most cars can do 400-500 miles to a tank.
     
  10. Simon

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 21, 2002

    Posts: 22,403

    Location: Berks / Moscow

    Ok mate. Petrol stations are always empty. Got it
     
  11. Haggisman

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 6, 2004

    Posts: 12,653

    Location: Birmingham

    I wonder how this will work in practical terms, if say you urgently need a charge at peak times?

    Is it going to block you completely from charging, or reduce your charge speed, or just use surge pricing to disincentivise people from charging at certain times? If the former, its not exactly ideal if you have a couple of long trips in a day and are relying on a quick charge at home in between...

    Anyway, to answer the OP, my Zoe should be here in about 2 weeks now :D (finally!)
     
  12. Mercenary Keyboard Warrior

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Aug 4, 2007

    Posts: 8,222

    Location: Wilds of suffolk

    Its my only minor gripe having moved back to petrol that I have to fill up weekly now.
    I can remember the last time I filled up without having to que, it was xmas eve. The time before that, I don't know, maybe 2016 or something.

    Honestly prior to xmas eve I cannot remember the last time I just drove up to a petrol station and didn't have to wait for a pump.
     
  13. Fusion

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 9,856

    Location: Notts

    More like 35MJ/litre. Don’t forget a rough efficiency figure for a combustion engine of about 25%, so your 154MW drops to about 31MW.
     
  14. Jonnycoupe

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 19, 2002

    Posts: 11,545

    Location: N.Warks

    Great cars. Especially if you prefer naturally aspirated type of driving experience rather than this wafty surgy make it’s mind up nature of modern boosted engines.
     
  15. Jonnycoupe

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 19, 2002

    Posts: 11,545

    Location: N.Warks

    He was comparing energy sources not energy utilisation...
     
  16. Psycho Sonny

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jun 21, 2006

    Posts: 29,659

    there used to be 3 in lenzie now there is only 1 everyone is swaying towards supermarkets on the outskirts. one is now a co-op and the forecourt is parking. the other is now part of an arnold clark showroom.

    so not all of them are full 24/7
     
  17. b0rn2sk8

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 9, 2003

    Posts: 4,056

    Every single review of the iPace I have seen has been overwhelmingly positive. Great drive, fit and finish. The only negatives I have seen are about the in car software being slow.

    But there are one issuewhen it comes to owning one in the real world that you will not see in reviews compared to say a Tesla. They are really thirsty when it comes to electrons, the car has a 200miles real world range which is great but charging it away from home is slow due to a lack of high power (100kw+, 50kws are almost everywhere now) chargers currently in the UK.

    Because the car is so thirsty those times when you do need to use a public charger the ‘miles per hour’ charging you gain are much lower than the competition, this really important for a long journey and being stuck on a 50kw charger.

    Over a 900km road trip across Norway the iPace was no quicker than an old Kia Soul with a battery 1/3 of the size. While this is a huge journey, it demonstrates how ‘miles per hour’ off a fast charger is far more important than its KW rating once you get outside the initial range of the car.

    This will be resolved in the next few years but you might also be nearly finished your lease by then. This also may not be a problem for you if you don’t regularly do really long trips, I certainly wouldn’t worry for a Few times a year thing but it if was every week then I would really think twice about it.
     
  18. Skidder

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Nov 28, 2007

    Posts: 11,704

    Interesting thanks. I tend to drive down to alps once a year. Rest is largely within the range. My parents are 157 miles and that is most frequent long journey. Mostly m4 which i guess would be reasonably efficient.
     
  19. Simon

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 21, 2002

    Posts: 22,403

    Location: Berks / Moscow

    I said litre rather than kg by mistake. Oops.

    The petrol station is outputting 154W when all are being filled (or charged to stay consistent with the theme here)

    I have not mentioned 24/7. Just the fact the max capacity of a fuel station is huge and very difficult to replicate that output on a EV landscape. A petrol car is charging at 22MW and people are getting excited about 350kW ‘fast’ chargers (ignoring battery limitations)

    And if charging times are slower. Guess what. You need more chargers. More chargers then = more power.

    Fair point in the efficiency meaning every demand will be lower at the filling/charge point. But it is still orders of magnitude away and goes to show that a EV future will rely on more power on the grid and a need for home charging as the ‘norm’.
     
  20. b0rn2sk8

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 9, 2003

    Posts: 4,056

    Trying to compare the energy density of fuel being delivered by a petrol pump to rapid chargers as an argument against EV's is just an exercise of mental gymnastics and has next to zero base in reality. It completely ignores how the energy is used which is hugely relevant to the differences between the two. It also ignores way that the energy can be added to an EV anywhere at any time VS having a dedicated filling station and the huge amount of energy needed to get petrol/diesel to the forecourt, the forecourt its self and the huge amount of energy needed to refine said petrol or diesel.

    Also more chargers don't equal more energy, the total amount of energy that is needed is the same but its being split across more pipes. National Grid have reiterated multiple times that the UK has sufficient capacity to deal with EV's and its because most EV's can be charged overnight on a standard 3 pin plug will be more than enough to cover most peoples daily mileage and 90% of cars spend 90% of their time parked. EV charging will simply be discouraged between 4-9pm via demand based pricing via smart meters, outside of those and particularly overnight the UK has huge amounts of capacity.

    It's not orders of magnitude away, far from it.