Soldato
- Joined
- 27 Mar 2013
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- 9,319
At least a model 3 would be a performance upgrade
.When are you going fully electric?
- Thread starter Ricochet J
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Soldato
yeah but at 50-70k there would be better petrol alternatives to compare performance withAt least a model 3 would be a performance upgrade
a fun affordable electric car doesnt yet exist, at least at my budget level
Soldato
Should be interesting to see what VW come out with next year then as they've been quietly pumping billions in EV tech and possibly buying up battery production. Golf ID or whatever they are going to call it supposedly at prices similar to a well spec'd Golf Diesel so probably still really expensive then
Soldato
- Joined
- 27 Mar 2013
- Posts
- 9,319
Tbh I was expecting the model 3 to be mid to high 30s to really steal a chunk of the market.
Soldato
That's not going to happen this year sadly, Tesla are going to have a really hard time this year as they need to drive volume of the Model 3 across all of Europe and China, but the versions with high margins take that priority. If things go well they will produce and ship 350K+ cars this year, but that is relying on them keeping up with new Giga factory being built and coming on line before the end of the year as well.
Obviously the longer they delay in shipping a car at the £30-40k price, the more they are going to suffer at the lower end of the market, especially when predictions are that to get ICE equivalent costs including running of the vehicle will be achieved by 2022. VAG are going to be flooding the market in 2020/21 with cars in the £18-30k range so Tesla are really going to have to go into over drive.
I will believe it when I see it, if anything EV's have got more expensive over the last 18 months not cheaper with demand far outstripping supply, there are very few 'deals' to be had. Used Leaf's lost next to nothing over the last year in depreciation. There is clearly room on the market for a lot more players.
An £18k EV that someone wants to buy? Not a chance. An e-Up! starts at £25k, you can't really make it any lower spec.
I can see them launching a Polo sized car with a 40kwh battery and 140-160 mile real world range for under £30k but that's not exactly a Model 3 competitor and more like an upmarket Zoe. A battery owned Zoe is still £28k before incentives.
A well equipped Golf/Jetta sized car that has 220+ miles range will be well over £30k, probably closer to £35k for the base spec and £2k-£3k more for the one you actually want. The Leaf is already in volume production and has been for some time and they can't get the price down on it, the new long range Leaf over £40k before incentives.
All of the new cars that have launched so far this year have pretty much slotted in their respective price points between the Zoe and the Model X. Nothing is undercutting what else is on the market.
Soldato
MEB is gonna deploy a toolkit of parts specific for EV like we haven’t seen before, huge investment but should pay dividend in supplier leverage. £18k sounds bonkers, half the cost will be something like a 80kWh battery so I can see it being ~ 40kWh like a ZOE to go for 300km range. Seems VW are suggesting 20K Euro so who knows what’s that worth soon and then VAT on top.
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/volkswagens-sub-£18000-electric-car-confirmed-bosses
https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/volkswagens-sub-£18000-electric-car-confirmed-bosses
Soldato
Guess people aren't buying Zoe's etc. Or did you mean something you would want to buy?
If VW can't produce that car at that price by 2023/2024 then either they've majorly screwed up, or EVs have failed.
Can't? Or won't? There's not really much incentive to bring prices down when there's a perpetual waiting list for EVs.
Can't? Or won't? There's not really much incentive to bring prices down when there's a perpetual waiting list for EVs.
No Zoe's are selling very well and there is a wait list even at £28k.
They have said it will be the size of a T-Roc for £18k, that's less than the base ICE T-Roc now (£19k), I just don't see how that will be possible without making it a Dacia Duster EV. Just to cover 5 years worth of inflation between now and 2024 they will need to get another £1,800 off the cost in today's money to keep it at £18k.
Nissan make a profit on the Leaf yes, but its not the £10k+ per car needed to drop the price to the levels VW are suggesting. The new prices of the cars do not need to get down to ICE levels for them to be successful when the cost of the fuel is 70-80% less.
The price of Li-Ion isnt going to continue to decease at its current rate, if anything it will stabilise and then start increasing. The costs of materials are already rising and economics of scale only go so far.
Soldato
No one is actually paying £28k for a Zoe though
I agree no one is paying RRP but that's mainly because of government incentives not 'discounts' and it still doesn't change the RRP of the car which is what we are discussing.
The government is paying £3,500 towards it, you might get a bit off from the dealer but it wont be much seeing as there is a 6 month wait list as reported a few weeks ago in this thread. You might get more off if you take a finance deal but the majority the rest will be PCP or leased and those deals are expensive compared to a Clio.
As is said demand has gone up which has made EV's more expensive and 2nd hand EV's are loosing no money at the moment. Look at the Leaf for example:
In 2015 they were practically giving away the 24kw Leaf (Teckna) on a 42 month PCP. You could get them for £1k upfront and £220 a month (10k annual miles) with a final payment of £10k.
Today the new 40kw Leaf (N-connecta) you are looking at on a 37 month PCP you are looking at £6k upfront, £379 a month and a final payment of £11k
Yes the battery is much bigger but they have supposedly dropped in price since then by almost half.
The government is paying £3,500 towards it, you might get a bit off from the dealer but it wont be much seeing as there is a 6 month wait list as reported a few weeks ago in this thread. You might get more off if you take a finance deal but the majority the rest will be PCP or leased and those deals are expensive compared to a Clio.
As is said demand has gone up which has made EV's more expensive and 2nd hand EV's are loosing no money at the moment. Look at the Leaf for example:
In 2015 they were practically giving away the 24kw Leaf (Teckna) on a 42 month PCP. You could get them for £1k upfront and £220 a month (10k annual miles) with a final payment of £10k.
Today the new 40kw Leaf (N-connecta) you are looking at on a 37 month PCP you are looking at £6k upfront, £379 a month and a final payment of £11k
Yes the battery is much bigger but they have supposedly dropped in price since then by almost half.
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Soldato
A dynamique nav with a couple of options was ~£20k when I ordered mine last August, so with the reduction of the grant, realistically £21-£22k atm, that's still a significant discount even with the long wait!
I thought we were discussing how much people were willing to pay, not the RRP? I bet they wouldn't be selling so well at RRP, as then financially they simply wouldn't make sense
I thought we were discussing how much people were willing to pay, not the RRP? I bet they wouldn't be selling so well at RRP, as then financially they simply wouldn't make sense
Soldato
#justsayin
That's a quote from today, in stock.
Soldato
£59 a month, if you keep it for 5 years thats £3540, so still a lot less than £18k
Permabanned
That screenshot should be illegal because it doesn't tell you the full cost.
Soldato
Yeah, it's pretty rubbish if you don't live in a house with a drive or some kind of off road parking. Still with the amount of investment being put into charging by private companies, including some of the largest oil producers on the planet, it won't be too long before it's easy for most.