When are you going fully electric?

[Jonnycoupe]

It was more a case of legacy automakers, hate that phrase, cancel the orders on the basis of reduced production for Covid if you remember Elon musk had a little tantrum strop and carried on production regardless. Worked out being Disruptive

Posted all this data further up but it got drowned out buy all the daft talk of climate controls..

nah diluted by the frequent narrative of yours. Fresh voice was recognised.

Shock horror discussion forums has discussion at same time some posters regurgitate data from google

 

[Journey]

manufacturers prioritised EV cars for any available chips.

And they'll be prioritizing them even more this year as the shortage continues and EU super credits reduces down to 1.33 from 1.67 per EV sold, or they'll just end up paying bigger fines.

 

[Simon]

And they'll be prioritizing them even more this year as the shortage continues and EU super credits reduces down to 1.33 from 1.67 per EV sold, or they'll just end up paying bigger fines.

If only it was that simplistic.

 

[SKILL]

That really is quite something

Despite the problems affecting the market as a whole, registrations of electric cars rose more than 75%, from 108,000 in 2020 to 191,000 last year.
In December, they accounted for one in every four cars sold, while the second-best selling car in the country during the year was Tesla's electric Model 3.

It is indeed impressive sales numbers but a few other stats for the funs...

The best selling vehicle was the Ford Transit Custom, some ~13k more sold than the Corsa top of the car list and ~20k more than the Model 3.

The Model 3 was easily the most expensive car in the top 10 with a base price of ~£40k, second most expensive car in the top 10 was ~£27k. Well, I say most expensive... At the risk of sounding like Fox here the arguably the biggest reason it's on the list at all is the Tax/BIK incentives.

It'd be great if a pure electric model could make the top 10 'on merit'...

 

[Kenai]

These figures are all registered rather than 'sold' specifically aren't they?

Whilst i've no doubt the Model 3 has been selling well, nearly 30% of the year's total registrations have landed in December (9,612 of 34,783). That leaves the other 11 months at 2,288 cars per month average.

Seems more likely they've just registered a crap load of vehicles end of year and they'll be actually selling them (or fleeting them) over the coming months, rather than selling near enough a 4 month allocation in December?

 

[Journey]

These figures are all registered rather than 'sold' specifically aren't they?

Whilst i've no doubt the Model 3 has been selling well, nearly 30% of the year's total registrations have landed in December (9,612 of 34,783). That leaves the other 11 months at 2,288 cars per month average.

Seems more likely they've just registered a crap load of vehicles end of year and they'll be actually selling them (or fleeting them) over the coming months, rather than selling near enough a 4 month allocation in December?

They get a ship load in every 3 months, and the month following the ship arrival has the most registrations. Very few cars available for pick up if you order one today.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Tesla don’t register vehicles until they are sold. They sell direct to customers, there are no dealers holding stock, there might be a handful of cars in the U.K. in transit still and the odd one not sold due to a cancelled order.

They landed a handful car transporter ships between the end of November and the beginning of December. Pretty much every car was already pre-sold.

It’s really not that unreasonable given it’s their MO to build cars for export at the start of a quarter, stick them on ships that take a month to get here and deliver them all at the end of the quarter. Rinse and repeat.


If you look back September was also another huge month but next to nothing in October.

 

[Kenai]

They get a ship load in every 3 months, and the month following the ship arrival has the most registrations. Very few cars available for pick up if you order one today.

Tesla don’t register vehicles until they are sold. They sell direct to customers, there are no dealers holding stock, there might be a handful of cars in the U.K. in transit still and the odd one not sold due to a cancelled order.

They landed a handful car transporter ships between the end of November and the beginning of December. Pretty much every car was already pre-sold.

It’s really not that unreasonable given it’s their MO to build cars for export at the start of a quarter, stick them on ships that take a month to get here and deliver them all at the end of the quarter. Rinse and repeat.


If you look back September was also another huge month but next to nothing in October.

Makes sense for their numbers peak like that then, i'd assumed a more steady stream of cars was being delivered month on month.

 

[Journey]

Makes sense for their numbers peak like that then, i'd assumed a more steady stream of cars was being delivered month on month.

That might happen if they start making RHD cars in Giga Berlin this year.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

It’s due to the dealership model and the short term focus of Wall Street and the stock markets in general.

Normal car makers who sell via dealers only have to sell it to the dealer to count as a sale. Tesla need to deliver it to the end customer to count as a sale.

It’s all about short term figures to appease the stock market. They don’t want any cars left in stock at the end of the quarter when they have to report to Wall Street. That’s why all the exports are optimised to be built and delivered in the same quarter.

In reality it makes no difference over the long term and likely has a detrimental impact on the business focusing on short term goals but Wall Street didn’t care about that and never has. Nuts if you ask me.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

It’s comedy cos just makes the next quarter even harder and really the stock is based closer to tweets than sales.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

Yes to a certain extent.

I think it all stems from when they were the most shorted company on Wall Street and all the nonsense from both sides that surrounded that.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

And they'll be prioritizing them even more this year as the shortage continues and EU super credits reduces down to 1.33 from 1.67 per EV sold, or they'll just end up paying bigger fines.

not true.

a) business model would have already planned a mix

B) the revenue from a feature rich ice can be enough to pay the fine and still net more profit per vehicle.

 

[Greebo]

not true.

a) business model would have already planned a mix

B) the revenue from a feature rich ice can be enough to pay the fine and still net more profit per vehicle.

Looking at the base price and options list cost on some of the mainstream old guard EVs, you would imagine the profit margin is even healthier than the ICE cars.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

I think it’s fair to say that those ICE cars that were not delivered this year are just lost production rather than delayed production.

To put it simply, the cars that were planned will never be delivered. We are not suddenly going to get a glut of cars coming to market in 2022 or 2023 to make up for 2021. If anything 2022 production has also been scaled back as well.

As the we closer to 2030 the proportion of ICE powered vehicles will naturally tail off to the point that I don’t think they’ll be many made in 2029 at all.

The manufacturers and dealers will not want to have any left going into 2030 that are not PHEVs that are still selling well. Even then then the selection will be very small.

 

[jpaul]

It’s really not that unreasonable given it’s their MO to build cars for export at the start of a quarter, stick them on ships that take a month to get here and deliver them all at the end of the quarter. Rinse and repeat.

right hand drive production on production line might limit teslas uk delivery options, and, just, economy of scale benefit of shipping them in one go - does europe have similar delivery schedules.

If only it was that simplistic.

looking at the ev credit criteria changes this stands out ... so heavier cars are advantaged ?

Specific emission targets are set annually for each manufacturer. Those targets are based on the EU fleet-wide targets and take into account the average mass of the manufacturer’s new vehicles registered in a given year, using a limit value curve. This means that manufacturers of heavier cars are allowed higher average emissions than manufacturers of lighter cars. The curve is set in such a way that the targets for the EU fleet-wide average emissions are achieved.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

right hand drive production on production line might limit teslas uk delivery options, and, just, economy of scale benefit of shipping them in one go - does europe have similar delivery schedules.

Yes, it’s all cars for export in the initial part of the quarter and then more local orders in the latter. EU cars come over on the same ships as U.K. ones.

That said expect that to change when Berlin opens up for the rest of the EU but I expect we will still get made in China cars as other RHD mart let’s are made there.

EU gets some US produced cars as well but the same principle applies.

 

[Journey]

Yes, it’s all cars for export in the initial part of the quarter and then more local orders in the latter. EU cars come over on the same ships as U.K. ones.

That said expect that to change when Berlin opens up for the rest of the EU but I expect we will still get made in China cars as other RHD mart let’s are made there.

EU gets some US produced cars as well but the same principle applies.

I wonder if Tesla will want to take advantage of the lower tariffs from the EU factory though, especially with more and more BEV's coming at them. Assuming the tariffs remain lower that is.

 

[b0rn2sk8]

I wonder if Tesla will want to take advantage of the lower tariffs from the EU factory though, especially with more and more BEV's coming at them. Assuming the tariffs remain lower that is.

Entirely possible and its a 10% tariff so the saving is not to be sniffed at, likewise there should be lower transport costs to the UK. On the flip side I'd expect the costs of production are lower in China for almost everything but in particular, wages.

 

[Jonnycoupe]

I wonder if Tesla will want to take advantage of the lower tariffs from the EU factory though, especially with more and more BEV's coming at them. Assuming the tariffs remain lower that is.

I think they are going to need EU sources cells as we progress into the mid 20s as i understand.