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When the Gpu's prices will go down ?
- Thread starter sys6em
- Start date
What we do know though is that Sony are now making a profit on the PS5 disc version so consumers are being totally ripped off on Gpus where a 237mm2 die 8gb GPU sells for the same £450 price tag.Thing is how ever much we can speculate, we are never going to get the true BoM and margins which AMD make on those consoles.
To say nothing of the opportunity costs as AMD could use those scares TSMC 7nm wafers for just about any other product and make far better margins.
What we do know is the die size which is 308mm² (so about 17.5mm by 17.6mm) for the PS5.
And we have the last public density defect rate which TSMC made public for 7nm (a good few years ago now) which was 0.09 per cm² (yes, I'd think defects would be in a SI unit but cm is what the wafer calculator uses too).
https://www.anandtech.com/show/16028/better-yield-on-5nm-than-7nm-tsmc-update-on-defect-rates-for-n5
We can take those figures into a die size calculator:
https://caly-technologies.com/die-yield-calculator/
which gives us something like this:
So 133 good dies. There should be some redundancy in the design, but on the other hand Sony were meant to have yield issues possibly because they pushed the clocks to the max just before launch once they realised that Microsoft had gone for a bigger SOC with more CUs.
It is possible that usable dies are far lower than that.
Then the next question is how much does a TSMC 7nm wafer cost?
With the crazy demand, I would expect to still be around $10k even for agreed orders, more for additional last minute (how quickly can we get more) orders.
The raw TSMC cost @ $10k is only about $75; at $15k it would be more like $113.
Then it needs to tested, packed etc. say $15.And we would think that AMD would make a minimum margin on that of 40% (which is extremely low for silicon).
All the other parts cost too. And even if Sony had obtained the best deals ever, 16GB of GDDR6 and fast PCIe 4.0 NVMe drives don't come cheap.
After all that: we still don't know the full story.
What we do know is that a similar sized GPU Navi 22 (RX 6700 XT), should cost a lot less to make than a PS5. No case, no power supply, no NVMe drive, only 12GB of GDDR6, etc.
And it could be sold for less than the PS5. But currently everything AMD can get from TSMC sells out, and while they may be obliged to make console chips (would love to read the details of the deal Sony and MS have with AMD, but we'll never find out), given the choice AMD will make far more profit selling Zen3 with those wafers they have left.
Pitchforks:
Don't just reserve them for miners;
give a though to console buyers too!
there will be no invasion, china aint stupid, would bring the usa into play, it would be suicide.and they know it, would likely lead to the end of the world as in would come russia as well as nato, a full on world war, so just wont happen, china and russia always sabre rattle, they both like a pit bull but with no teeth
Same here. Will try for a PS5 or dig out the Atari 2600.
Did wonder about what exactly Sony said there.
What I mean is that isn't it possible for very weaselly wording to have been very economically with the truth and actually meant that the PS5 disc version with its current attachment rate is no longer making a loss, rather than the device itself is no longer making a loss? Even if attachment rate in this case merely means those who also buy a PS5 subscription (which I think is about £50 pa so not too much). I'm saying not that is what they meant, but being economical with the truth is not uncommon for corporate speak.
Another thing is of course that Sony's profit and loss figures totally ignored R&D costs for which presumably they paid upfront (or we'd expect they did, otherwise the too good to be true deal the console manufacturers are getting from AMD is even better for them).
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i bought an xbox series s, is doing me fine not bothered with 1440p @60hz rather run it at 1080 @120hz. my vega is ergo mining till some sense comes to market middle of next yr hopefully
Sorry mate but the majority of Xbox series S games at 60fps run at 1080p or lower. 120fps is simply a pipe dream. You can do better with your current vega 64.
That said Biden is a pussy if China wanted to push their luck i would not be surprised if Taiwan went the same way has Hong kong did.
he is a pussy, but they have too many interests in taiwan, it will never happen well not in our lifetime, china would need to become more powerful than nato to stand a chane to get away with that, seeing as they only have a few hundred nukes it be a very long time indeed if ever
Man of Honour
The USA doesn't even officially acknowledge that Taiwan exists. China is more important to them. Even if it wasn't, what would they do? NATO declaring war on China seems a bit unlikely to me, let alone going the whole nine yards and nuking China.
Examples that come to my mind are:
i) Russia openly conquering Crimea and openly (if unofficially) attacking Ukraine.
ii) Taliban winning the war against the coalition forces in Afghanistan, which was mostly the USA.
China is a lot more powerful than Russia, which is a lot more powerful than the Taliban.
i never said nato would get involved only if russian joined in that would happen, very few countries recognize taiwan offically, the us still **** off china playing around in the south china sea area, they still have a fair presense there too, tailabn are totally different, cant compare them to russia and china, totally differnt type of warfare its more a religious thing, the tailban kicked russias butt as well. though crimea was annexed before they joined nato, since the russians have gone no further, plus heavy sactions have pretty much killed their economy, though rise in oil and gas prices as well as eu wanting their supply from russia things have vastly improved
Man of Honour
With "that" being Taiwan going the same way Hong Kong has, i.e. absorbed into China.
Maybe NATO would nuke China if China invaded Taiwan, but I think it's far from certain. I think it's very unlikely.
funnily enough just been watching a news piece with an expert and says only way war will happen if there is a accident, as china buzzing their airspace a lot of late, or taiwan could vote to rejoin china which is extremely unlikely, what i didnt know was we have a build up in there region as well as other allies. so its possible if china go too far and cause an accident and we aciddently stumble into world war 3,which effectively is end of the world
Let's keep this thread on topic please.
Caporegime
- Joined
- 18 Oct 2002
- Posts
- 29,804
Nice sample size you have there
I checked german prices and they are similar.
Man of Honour
Nothing will change unless the market disappears. If businesses can sell X product for Y price, they will do so. Prices will only drop if the product is not selling at that price. Since companies are making record profits with the products at the current vastly inflated prices, the products will continue to sell at the current vastly inflated prices. It's possible that the entire PC gaming market will disappear as a result, but why would AMD or nvidia care about that? Firstly, short termism is king. Secondly, why would either company care who is buying their product? It makes no difference to AMD or nvidia. Money is money.