Why the Virtual-Reality Hype is About to Come Crashing Down

[andybird123]

VR is too inconvenient to use now yes. But over the next 10 years they will get smaller and lighter which will in turn allow the ergonomics to improve, and they'll be wireless.

 

[Rroff]

VR is too inconvenient to use now yes. But over the next 10 years they will get smaller and lighter which will in turn allow the ergonomics to improve, and they'll be wireless.

There is a lot of potential in the business world if they become lighter/more compact and fully wireless at high res.

 

[andybird123]

A slightly different opinion to the one in the OP

http://fudzilla.com/news/games/40993-sony-will-sell-six-million-playstation-vr-this-year

 

[Pottsey]

A slightly different opinion to the one in the OP

http://fudzilla.com/news/games/40993-sony-will-sell-six-million-playstation-vr-this-year

Fudzilla is hardly a reputable site. The very opposite in fact, anything from that site has to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Personally I thinks saying what was it 1 in 3 PS4 owners will have VR is unrealistic.

 

[D3K]

It's been a month and a half since I last put on the Vive. The content is sorely lacking.

 

[danoliver1]

It's been a month and a half since I last put on the Vive. The content is sorely lacking.

This is why I haven't bought one yet, £700 for a demo playing headset is too big a pill to swallow.

 

[andybird123]

Fudzilla is hardly a reputable site. The very opposite in fact, anything from that site has to be taken with a large pinch of salt. Personally I thinks saying what was it 1 in 3 PS4 owners will have VR is unrealistic.

It's not written by fudzilla, they are reporting on a report written by a research firm. And 6 million is no where near a 3rd of PS4 owners, it's less than a 6th. If sony's projection of selling another 20 million over the next year is accurate then it becomes less than 1 in 10, which seems more than reasonable.

 

[Pottsey]

It's not written by fudzilla, they are reporting on a report written by a research firm. And 6 million is no where near a 3rd of PS4 owners, it's less than a 6th. If sony's projection of selling another 20 million over the next year is accurate then it becomes less than 1 in 10, which seems more than reasonable.

From the link Moor Insights & Strategy Associate Analyst, Anshel Sag said 3-4million in a 3 month time period this year which seemed rather high to me and a further 8 million the following year. At an estimated 20 million new PlayStation 4 owners that’s saying around about 1 in 3 new PS4 will be sold with VR next year or 1 in 5 of all PS4 owners will have VR by end of next year. Which seems on the high side to me.

 

[andybird123]

I agree that the prediction of 13-14million units just on PS4 over the remainder of 2016-2017 seems too high, but that is the single last paragraph of that article, when you look over the full article you get a balanced picture that its more likely to be closer to 6million - which is roughly 1 in 10 PS4 owners by the end of next year

but you are cherry picking the highest number you can find for a projection and applying it to the lowest figure you can find for PS4 ownership

its a strawman argument, you are deliberately trying to create a distorted view of what the article says overall in order to discredit the entire article

major research firms are predicting 6million units as a minimum just across PSVR and Vive/Rift and thats before you even add on the 1 million+ GearVR units already sold, or any of the other headsets being released over the next year or so
its pretty easy to argue we should be on over 2 million units by the end of this year, easily, maybe even 3

but someone thinks they might reach low single digit millions in 10 years time

Anyway I am still not convinced even by generation 4 VR in around 10 years will be mainstream, perhaps in the low millions of units a year

VR for most people will probably start with mobile phones becoming adapted more for VR use, again with companies like Samsung, google, and reportedly Apple etc. all joining the fray... the research and advancements that they help drive will benefit standalone headsets as well, with samsung really pushing for inside out tracking (so no more need for base stations or external cameras) as well as obviously samsung working on the screens as well as providing volume to get the prices down on the screens and optics

 

[Huambo81a]

I haven't read a word of this but my opinion is . . . . . . I like VR, and shall continues to finance it's inception.

 

[Pottsey]

but you are cherry picking the highest number you can find for a projection and applying it to the lowest figure you can find for PS4 ownership
its a strawman argument, you are deliberately trying to create a distorted view of what the article says overall in order to discredit the entire article

Why do you keep taking reasonable comments any twist them into extreme negatives? You have been doing that thought out this thread and have just done it again. I used the numbers you gave me of 20 million new PlayStation 4 owners. How do you turn using your numbers into cherry picking the lowest figure I could find for PS4 ownership? If the numbers are wrong then ask yourself why you cherry picked those numbers. I didn’t pick them, you did.

I never tried to discredit the article as there is no need to. Anything from Fuszilla is automatically discredited unless there is secondary evidence proving otherwise. Anyone sensible doesn’t believe what they read on Fuszilla without a secondary source. Fuszilla has a reputation of posting fake and wrong news as well as using made up new sources. Just because Fuszilla say it’s from an Analyst doesn’t mean it really is or that it’s from a analysis with a good reputation. As for the Analysts saying millions of unit’s based on research those are numbers are from ages ago before the Analyst massively downgrade estimated VR shipment numbers after seeing how prohibitory expensive the VR units are.

“major research firms are predicting 6million units as a minimum just across PSVR and Vive/Rift and thats before you even add on the 1 million+ GearVR units already sold, or any of the other headsets being released over the next year or so
its pretty easy to argue we should be on over 2 million units by the end of this year, easily, maybe even 3

but someone thinks they might reach low single digit millions in 10 years time”

Well I said low millions as in up to 10 million. I was very clear in saying my estimation was for the full VR headsets not the cheaper phone cases. When you look at the real research firms and the real analysis they say things like HTC Vive install base as of May is an estimated 50,000 units of which 35,000 are pre orders. There was an initial high volume in the first month then a large drop off. At current shipping rates that’s well under 80,000 units by the end of the year. The Rift is a little better but still well under 100,000 units by the end of the year, a very long way from 1 million combined.

Those are the type of realistic numbers I am basing my long term estimate on. The initial first month VR rush is over, orders and shipments have steadily dropped and we have barely got past 120,000 units. With the latest numbers I have seen we will be lucky with Rift + Vive reaching 200k by the end of the year. That’s a long way from 2 million units by the end. To hit 2 million by the end of the year will require PSVR to ship 1.9million within a 3 month time frame. If PSVR goes like the Rift+Vive we well be on a little over 200k Full VR units by end of year.

Again this is talking about the full VR helms not the cheap phone cases which I made very clear I wasn’t including in my older post.

 

[andybird123]

You think Vive will ship less than 80k by end of year?
The 3 games they have been giving away with the vive have over 88k owners already.

And not everyone who ordered a vive got those included depending on ho/when they ordered.

I know you are trying to refuse to recognise phone based VR, however with samsung being majorly involved in VR screens, its obvious that they will need each other to drive advancements in panel tech, and its obvious that that is the basis on which these multi billion dollar companies are all throwing billions of dollars at this. As well as inside out tracking. It all feeds in to the bigger picture and allows the advancements that are already being demoed.

I didnt pick 20 million, i said 20 million when added to the existing. You took the 20 million in isolation just so that you could say "1 in 3" to make it look like an unreasonable number.

 

[Pottsey]

“You think Vive will ship less than 80k by end of year?”

Based on May numbers yes. I might be a little off but right now the tracking data for May suggests 120k for end of year for Rift+Vive. Call it 200k if you like to cover margin of error and changing shipments. Perhaps the Vive will break 100k by end of year. I will keep revising as new data comes.

The problem with the games is people are buying them without the VR headsets. I brought a few this week even though I don’t plan on owning a headset until next gen. Steam is also recommending VR games to people without headsets.

Anyway the initial high volume of VR sales is over for now. VR is no longer shipping 35k+ per month but much less. There will be another boost with PSVR comes out and that too is expected to drop after the initial high volume. If sales stop dropping and stabilize at 20k to 30k per month we won’t be reaching 1 million sales per year any time soon. In fact that means we expect 360,000k for 2017.

“I know you are trying to refuse to recognise phone based VR, “

Well yet again you are wrong. VR phones are real just they are in a different category to what I am talking about. I don’t compare low end phone VR to high end full VR headsets just like I don’t compare low end Phone gaming to high end PC gaming. Different categories.

“I didnt pick 20 million, i said 20 million when added to the existing. You took the 20 million in isolation.”

No I didn’t, I took the official total sold shipping units direct from Sony of 40million as of May then added on your 20million for 60million. See what I mean, you keep taking reasonable comments and turning them into extreme negatives when they are not. 1 in 3 as in for ever 3 units of PS4's sold there would be 1 PS4 VR sold next year based on your numbers of 20million PS4 expected sales. Which seemed way to high to me.

 

[andybird123]

So you didnt take it in isolation except you did then use it to derive your 1 in 3 figure. Erm, umkay.
Your saying "1 in 3" is a reasonable thing to say, except it ignores the fact that what I was actually referring to was selling 6 million units over the next 18 months of an accessory for a product that would then have an install base of 60 million, so thats a 1 in 10 attach rate. 1 in 10 doesnt sound unreasonable, 1 in 3 does. They are two ways of saying a similar thing but giving a drastically different impression of what "reasonable" is.

As far as phone VR goes and how volume and R&D benefits all VR, i can only summise that you are being deliberately obtuse. So thats me out.

 

[Pottsey]

“So you didnt take it in isolation except you did then use it to derive your 1 in 3 figure. Erm, umkay.”

Go back and read it. I didn’t just give one isolated number. I said 1 in 3 of sold units or 1 in 5 of all PS4 owners. Anyway you accused me yet again of something I didn’t do. I never cherry pick any numbers. You said I am deliberately trying to create a distorted view and clearly I am not. I used up-to-date numbers on current owners, your numbers on next year’s owners and the analyst numbers in the link you gave. It is you who misread the numbers not me. See below.

“I was actually referring to was selling 6 million units over the next 18 months”

You need to re-read it. The article didn’t say 6 million over 18 months, it said 6 million over 2016. 6 million units over a 6 month time frame with only a 3 month shipping window. Given the limited shipping window and limited stock levels I don’t see how they will hit 6 million by the end of 2016. This is the from the same people that forecast 2.3 million Oculus Rifts and 700,000 HTC Vives for 2016 which is starting to look massively overinflated based on current data tracking.

You accuse me of cherry picking numbers but you are using the highest wildest numbers you can find all from an Analyst that has so far been massively out on their predictions for 2016.

“so thats a 1 in 10 attach rate. 1 in 10 doesnt sound unreasonable, 1 in 3 does. They are two ways of saying a similar thing but giving a drastically different impression of what "reasonable" is.”

The link said 6 million for 2016 and you said an increase in growth which means more than 6 million extra for 2017. That means at a minimum 12 million PS4VR over the next 18 months which is 1 in 5 of all PS4 owners based on your numbers of 20million extra PS4 owners for next year.

Anyway I am glad you are out. You lied and accused me of many things I never did or said.

 

[andybird123]

From the article;

Daiwa Securities which claimed that Sony is likely to ship 1-3 million PS VR headsets in fiscal 2016 (April 2016-March 2017)

Anshel Sag believes the number will be as high as 8 million by the end of next year

There are several different projections in the article which are based on time.periods extending in to or to the end of next year. Not just using the biggest one is called taking a balanced view. 1 in 5 on an install base of 60 million would be 12 million, no where in the article does anyone claim they will sell 12 million headsets. I never said they will sell 6 million by christmas this year, i never said they'll sell 12 by end of next year. You are the one making stuff up to suit your narrative.

20 million isnt my number, its Sony's number.

But yeah, I'm the liar.

The only mention of growth i made from 2016 to 2017 was where I said it could be as many as 2m in 2016 and then 3m in 2017. I never said 12m across both years. I actually soecifically said numbers like 14m by end of 2017 sounded way too high and mentioned numbers more in line with 5m-6m across both years.

I know you said you liked projecting but I thought you meant the home cinema variety.

 

[Pottsey]

“You are the one making stuff up to suit your narrative.”

Really because you just picked and mixed numbers from different projections and it’s me that’s changing the narrative? You are the one that pulled out the 6million units from 1 projection mixed in with the 12month time frame from another projection mixed in with 20million PS4 from another projections all with timeframes that don’t overlap.

Yes there are several different projections but none of them match up with the numbers you gave. You seem to have mixed up elements from all the projections which is what has caused this confusion. The 12 month projection was 1 to 3 million from April 2016 to April 2017. The 6 million projection was by end of 2016 both of those projections end well before Sony has shipped an estimated 20 million new PS4 over 2017. So we cannot add in 20million new PS4 units by end of 2017 to those numbers to get 1 in 10. The projection timeframe that does cover the 20million new PS4 units was 8+million VR.

“I never said there would be an increase in growth next year either. You said you expected there to be sales in the low millions in 10 years time and I pointed out that would effectively be no growth as a lot of people are expecting it to be well over a million this year and low millions next year. “

Yearly sales as in low millions up to 10 million yearly sales in 10 years. I didn’t say total sales of 10million in 10 years. Unless PS4VR does way better then I expect I don’t see there being over a million VR sales this year or next year (Full VR head units):

Here is my old quote "perhaps in the low millions of units a year perhaps at a push 10million" as in 10million a year again talking about full VR headsets not the cheap phone cases. Cheap VR phone cases have already broken past 1 million a year. My numbers are clearly about the full VR headsets only.

 

[andybird123]

You're saying I can't use 6 million as thats one of the projections for 2016 from the article but you can take the 20million projection for 2017 PS4 sales and mix up the timelines. Double standards.

Yes, I looked at all of the projections (not just the ones in that article) and came up with my own balanced view on what I think PSVR sales are more likely to look like. The largest projection for total sales by end of 2017 was 8 million, I am saying it is likely to be 6 at the most for a 1 in 10 attach rate. AT THE MOST, I think the lower bound could be more like 1 in 20, which would put say 2016 sales at 1m PSVR and 2017 at 2m.

That is my own view based on a variety of sources. You've taken some information from an article, attached it to something I said and then fabricated what you think MY view point is, but that is my view point in the previous paragraph, the same as my other posts on this page.

I very clearly said that I disagreed with some of the numbers in the article and gave my own completely separate view on what I think 2016/17 numbers are likely to look like, both as separate yearly figures and as combined 16/17 figures.

Yes, yearly sales. You made it clear when you said 10 million that that was an absolute best case. When someone says "low millions", in English, that means low single digit. If you'd meant close to 10 million you would have said "up to 10 million", not "low millions, at a push 10".

I've repeatedly pointed out why phone VR is just as important, if not more so at this stage. You're making no distinction between GearVR and the $10 plastic cases. GearVR has shipped over a million, the really cheap ones, god knows, I'm not even including those. All the major phone manufacturers are investing in VR grade displays and so on, and that has a direct feed back in to standalone headsets.

I know you are trying to discount anything other than an Oculus Rift type headset, but that is exactly the point, there won't just be an Oculus Rift, or PSVR type VR over the next 10 years, there will be other devices in between... for those other devices to exist there needs to be a market, a market that will grow from both ends to meet in the middle, its completely disingenuous to talk about VR and not include the area that is providing the largest amount of research in to the single most important component of a VR headset. When analysts talk about 50million VR sales by whenever, they aren't just talking about the highest end VR headsets, they are talking about an entire VR ecsosystem.

1 guy on a forum thinks VR won't be used for anything other than gaming. Google, Apple, Facebook, Sony, Microsoft, Siemens, IBM etc. etc. are all investing hundreds of millions if not billions in to VR and AR. I'm inclined to believe all of them combined, over 1 guy on a forum who can't even be bothered to read someone's posts properly before he responds

 

[Pottsey]

“Yes, yearly sales. You made it clear when you said 10 million that that was an absolute best case.”

Yes I did, let me explain my thought process. Last time I looked we are on track for under 0.2million units a year for 2016 based on what’s shipped out as of end of May (no PS4VR yet). I assumed the PS4VR will do no better than the Vive or Rift or perhaps a little better. If the Vive and Rift are on track to hit combined 200k units in 2016 then the PSV4VR will add another 100k units putting us on 300k. Add on 200k for margin of error and we reach 500k full VR headsets by end of year 2016. I made a few assumptions one being that only the major brands will sell in high numbers. The margin of error is to cover all the small low shipment brands coming out and other factors I might have missed.

Now assuming a healthy year on year growth based on the above tracking numbers we won’t hit 1 million VR units per year for a few years. Assuming no sudden jumps in growth then after 10 years we reach millions up to 10million per year. Of course there are things that could massively though out my numbers like if PSV4VR end up doing massively better then Vive or Rift which is why I will keep revising the numbers over the years. Anyway that is how I go to my up to 10million a year number for full VR headsets which might end up wildly wrong but I hope at least you can understand how I got to them. I have not included phones as I was looking at what I consider the high end full VR units while phones to me are the low end VR units. Also personally I don’t count the stupidly cheap plastic and cardboard units as worthwhile VR. The more expensive phone VR solutions serve as a nice stepping stone into the full VR helms. But my numbers are focused on the full VR headsets not phones.

 

[Pottsey]

“You're saying I can't use 6 million as thats one of the projections for 2016 from the article but you can take the 20million projection for 2017 PS4 sales and mix up the timelines. Double standards.”

If you go back and read my first post on the ratios I used the 20 PS4 million projections for 2017 against the projected PS4VR sales from the Analyst for 2017 which is a matching timeline.

You responded by saying I picked the lowest figure for PS4 ownership when I had not. After accusing me of cherry picking numbers when I hadn’t you then posted from the article the 6 million VR figures which was for end of 2016 against an estimated PS4 ownership from 2017. At that point you hadn’t explained or stated that you meant 6 million across 2017. Given that the article says 6 million by 2016 and you are using those numbers it looks like you are stating 6 million by 2016.

It also looks like you are comparing VR 2016 numbers against estremated PS4 2017 numbers to give a low attachment ratio.

“I never said they will sell 6 million by christmas this year, i never said they'll sell 12 by end of next year. You are the one making stuff up to suit your narrative.”

Please look at it from my prospective. I was talking about year on year growth reaching up to 10 million a year for Full VR units. In reference to my year on year growth you said I was wrong and that there wouldn’t be zero growth. You even said “every company in any way connected with the entertainment industry disagrees with you.” You then said my ratios are wrong quoting the 6 million number from the article which in the article was 6 million by end of 2016.

From my prospective you just told me I am wrong and that market will grow year on year. You then posted the 6 million by 2016 number without explained or stating you really meant 2017. So from my prospective at that point in time you just said 6 million by 2016 and there won’t be zero year on year growth which means at a minimum 6 million more across 2017 for a total of 12 million by end of 2017.

“1 guy on a forum thinks VR won't be used for anything other than gaming. Google, Apple, Facebook, Sony, Microsoft, Siemens, IBM etc. etc. are all investing hundreds of millions if not billions in to VR and AR. I'm inclined to believe all of them combined, over 1 guy on a forum who can't even be bothered to read someone's posts properly before he responds”

No idea who you are talking about. No one in this thread said VR won’t be used for anything other than gaming, no one ever said phone VR won’t be important. Phone VR is rubbish against full VR headsets but no one said phone VR won’t be important. It’s a stepping stone into full VR headsets.