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Winter 2019/2020

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by Rroff, Nov 18, 2019.

  1. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 65,610

    As there is no thread yet and things are just starting to look interesting on the model front I thought I'd start one.

    Some speculation of a SSW type event mid-December (though the effect usually starts to be felt 2+ weeks later) with a good chance of significant arctic outbreak for some part of the northern hemisphere but too early to say what and where.

    https://www.aer.com/science-research/climate-weather/arctic-oscillation/

    The end of the GEFS run starting to show some promise for colder possibly snowy weather come December

    [​IMG]

    https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/twodata/chart.aspx?chart=/charts/gefs/gefsens850London0.png?cb=2

    Siberian snow coverage is progressing well and ahead of many recent years

    https://www.natice.noaa.gov/pub/ims/ims_v3/ims_gif/ARCHIVE/EuAsia/2019/ims2019321_asiaeurope.gif

    And we've seen early snow for some parts of the UK already with parts of Wales especially getting a taste https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50376070

    Gav's latest in-depth look at the potential for the coming winter:

     
  2. 200sols

    Mobster

    Joined: Jan 14, 2018

    Posts: 2,743

    Location: Hampshire

    Would love a really cold snowy winter, we dont get them often on the south coast ;)
     
  3. Panos

    Capodecina

    Joined: Nov 22, 2009

    Posts: 12,002

    Location: Under the hot sun.

    This winter will be similar to the 2000-2001 one.
     
  4. A2Z

    Sgarrista

    Joined: May 9, 2005

    Posts: 8,146

    Location: London

    Good thing I'll be in Miami over Xmas and New Year, should be pretty warm still. Only 10 days though :( so will have to come back to the cold anyway.

    Hope it doesn't snow as that means clearing it at work which is never fun.
     
  5. Pawnless Endgame

    Capodecina

    Joined: May 10, 2004

    Posts: 10,649

    Location: Sunny Stafford

    I wish for the same, but you know full well that we'll have approx. 85 days of rain, 5 days of dull weather (or sun if we're lucky), and 1 morning with a light dusting of snow on the roofs which will be melted by 11AM. i.e. an average British winter, and that's not even on the South coast. I'm quoting Midlands here.

    Then the summer of 2020 will be an 8-week 30C heatwave like we had in 2017 and 2018 :mad:
     
  6. pinkpound

    Wise Guy

    Joined: May 31, 2005

    Posts: 1,572


    You forget to mention UK will grind to a halt due to 5mm of snow .. Daily Express/Mail call it the end of the world
     
  7. Efour

    Caporegime

    Joined: Sep 8, 2005

    Posts: 25,293

    Location: Norrbotten, Sweden.

    I'm hoping there's no snow at all.
    Had my fill of snow this year already (≧▽≦)
     
  8. pastymuncher

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Jul 12, 2005

    Posts: 18,186

    Location: Aberlour, NE Scotland

    We have had a hell of a lot of rain here and so far are up to 86.5mm for November, 46.3mm of which was over a 24 hour period. We usually have snow on the ground around the 12th November and this year we had a couple of inches on the 14th. It has also been much colder at this point than in recent years. It's been below zero all day today and we have had a few days that have only reached a degree or two so this could be a bad winter on the way. I just hope it's not like 2010 when we had four feet of snow and ran out of places to dump it when clearing the road. I will dig out my weather station history tomorrow.
     
  9. adolf hamster

    Soldato

    Joined: Oct 18, 2012

    Posts: 7,064

    Good if it snows, ive been driving a 4x4 for 2 years now. I want my day of lording it over the 2wd peasants goddamnit!
     
  10. Minusorange

    Mobster

    Joined: Nov 25, 2005

    Posts: 4,382

    Worst winter since records began
     
  11. ajf

    Mobster

    Joined: Oct 30, 2006

    Posts: 2,860

    Location: Worcestershire, UK

    Wasn’t particularly notable was it?
     
  12. moon man

    Mobster

    Joined: Nov 17, 2003

    Posts: 2,624

    Location: St Breward Cornwall

    Not too bothered about snow ,im half way up a very steep hill ,cant do with the hassle (although did make it home when cormwall ground to a halt in January
    as a bodyboarder and storm watcher im more excited about this weeks groundswell ,20 second period ,drooling
    https://magicseaweed.com/news/xxl-swell-about-to-hit-europe/11625/
     
  13. robfosters

    Caporegime

    Joined: Dec 1, 2010

    Posts: 32,205

    Location: Welling, London

    Praying for no snow. Bloody hate the stuff.
     
  14. Street

    Soldato

    Joined: Jan 17, 2005

    Posts: 7,458

    Location: Liverpool

    I'm hoping for a cold one this year as last year was a bit of a wash out. I could count amount of winter climbing routes I ticked on one hand! The conditions look like they're coming in nicely in Scotland already so a trip up for a weekend is on the cards for December.
     
  15. Blackjack Davy

    Mobster

    Joined: Aug 16, 2009

    Posts: 3,229

    Not these days. Used to get 'em regularly as a kid they're only a memory now.
     
  16. Rroff

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 13, 2006

    Posts: 65,610

    Certainly living in some interesting times for weather - though I'd like to see at least one decent winter in this era - the last proper snowy winter (lasting more in weeks timescale rather than the 2-3 days we've had of late and 5 foot drifts, etc.) in the part of the country I'm living now was a year before I was born.
     
  17. Threepwood

    Soldato

    Joined: Sep 29, 2011

    Posts: 5,204

    Location: Monkey Island

    What ulterior motive do you have for posting this science stuff? Are you a puppet for the jumper makers? You can't fool me!
     
  18. pastymuncher

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Jul 12, 2005

    Posts: 18,186

    Location: Aberlour, NE Scotland

    We hit -5 last night and it's still -3.5 now. Looking back at my weather stations history it's much colder than last year. So taking yesterday, 18th November as a example we had the following lows/highs over the past few years:-

    All day temps are 18th November. All night temps are the night of 18/19th November.

    2015 Day high +7.3 degrees C. Night low +5.0 degrees C.
    2016 Day high +0.8 degrees C. Night low -1.6 degrees C.
    2017 Day high +4.4 degrees C. Night low +0.1 degrees C.
    2018 Day high +7.5 degrees C. Night low +0.9 degrees C.
    2019 Day high -0.2 degrees C. Night low -5.0 degrees C.

    I did have data going back to 2008 but the stupid backup drive failed big time. Always have a backup of a backup!! Recent winters have been wetter rather than just cold but this year is the exception so far as it's been very wet and cold. I will update if anything significant happens.
     
  19. Semple

    Soldato

    Joined: Mar 5, 2010

    Posts: 5,815

    Fixed
     
  20. robfosters

    Caporegime

    Joined: Dec 1, 2010

    Posts: 32,205

    Location: Welling, London

    It was perfect the first time.

    Snow is dangerous, a nuisance, expensive to the economy, stretches the emergency services and social care network, and it confines many elderly and ill to their homes. No thanks.