Winter 2020/2021

Neil79 · 19 Oct 2020 at 17:05

I haven't seen snow for around 4 years now, wonder if we will have a proper winter this year into next? I'm looking for mild forecasts, because that usually means it will be cold

Since the first update there have been a number of changes. However, the seasonal models continue to favour a mild winter in the UK. The precipitation forecast is less clear. On balance a wet season is favoured but a number of the models suggest it will be drier than the norm.

With a preference for above average temperatures there is a suggestion of higher than normal pressure to the south of the UK. Other factors such as NAO, QBO and La Nina are consistent with the previous update. Recent climatology favours milder conditions.

The last two winters have both delivered big positive temperature anomalies with little snow in most lowland parts of the UK. Through 2020 warmer than average months have dominated, although the first half of October was relatively cool. Taking the above into account the initial TWO view continues to be that the chance of a milder season is higher than average.

https://www.theweatheroutlook.com/weather-news/5497/uk-winter-2020-21

Luke · 19 Oct 2020 at 18:04

If it snow, it snows. It might. It might not.
These threads are the same every year.

Blackjack Davy · 19 Oct 2020 at 23:40

Neil79 said:
I haven't seen snow for around 4 years now, wonder if we will have a proper winter this year into next? I'm looking for mild forecasts, because that usually means it will be cold

Nope, infact I predict another record warm winter. Snow is in retreat everywhere there was business in scotland involving husky dog sledding had to close down due to lack of snow in recent years. Within 30 years there may be no arctic sea ice at all and I wouldn't be surprised if I've seen my last snowfall already.

jsmoke · 19 Oct 2020 at 23:52

Bit away from winter. Less snow the better also.

Neil79 · 20 Oct 2020 at 00:08

jsmoke said:
Bit away from winter. Less snow the better also.

No, I want LOTS AND LOTS AND LOTS!

moon man · 20 Oct 2020 at 05:44

Feb 2019 was the last decent snow here ,blocked off the a30 , was caught out at work and some took 8 hours to get home others just dumped their cars ,this was the problem and people who haven't a clue how to dive in the snow I was in the jam returning from Launceston on a30 ,anyway detoured through Camelford and eventually made it
Wouldn't want a full winter of this but area days here and there is OK by me

Rroff · 20 Oct 2020 at 06:12

Some of the recent nights have had a biting edge to the cold (got down as low as 2-3C on the exposed higher ground on my 2-3am commute home over the weekend but felt colder) - there feels like a background chill to the cold when it happens that in the past preceded a proper winter - but we had that last year and it fizzled out to nothing.

Siberian snow cover seems to be picking up with a fair size increase over the last 24 hours which often helps especially we need cold pooling to the east of us for any chance of something from that direction.

Blackjack Davy said:
Within 30 years there may be no arctic sea ice at all

While it hasn't really changed the overall long term trend - this year is back well above the 2012 minimum so far and climbing back towards the 10 year average - we may see some badly needed rebuilding this year.

Blackjack Davy said:
I wouldn't be surprised if I've seen my last snowfall already.

Feels like that sometimes of late

200sols · 20 Oct 2020 at 06:45

Rroff said:
While it hasn't really changed the overall long term trend - this year is back well above the 2012 minimum so far and climbing back towards the 10 year average - we may see some badly needed rebuilding this year.

No it isnt, the arctic is back at record lows. The refreeze on the Russian side hasn't even started yet. Arctic ice is currently 1.5million k2 below the 10 year average. Despite not hitting a new minimum this is the worst year on record for the ice, 2012 saw a rapid refreeze as well. The absolute minimum is not everything, I believe this year has spent the most days on record lows for any given date.

Rroff · 20 Oct 2020 at 07:20

200sols said:
No it isnt, the arctic is back at record lows. The refreeze on the Russian side hasn't even started yet. Arctic ice is currently 1.5million k2 below the 10 year average. Despite not hitting a new minimum this is the worst year on record for the ice, 2012 saw a rapid refreeze as well. The absolute minimum is not everything, I believe this year has spent the most days on record lows for any given date.

I think you are talking slightly different purposes to me.

200sols · 20 Oct 2020 at 07:36

Rroff said:
I think you are talking slightly different purposes to me.

I'm not sure, the ice is simply in the worst state on record. To put into context 2012 at this point had almost 1million km2 more ice.

Rroff · 20 Oct 2020 at 07:42

200sols said:
I'm not sure, the ice is simply in the worst state on record. To put into context 2012 at this point had almost 1million km2 more ice.

I'm talking about the growth trend for this year rather than extent hence I said might see. Initially it looked pretty dire but has been coming back up.

bainbridge · 20 Oct 2020 at 08:15

Before wfh I was expected to slither my way into work in bad snow. Regardless of safety, you were looked down on if you weren't prepared to drive in and it was a badge of honour if you made it in.

Wfh has changed all that so an evening frolicking in the snow after work will be fun.

glenimp617 · 20 Oct 2020 at 08:24

Hopefully it snows us all in so we can work from home

Hang on

Archy · 20 Oct 2020 at 08:30

The way this year is going, the snow will somehow be highly acidic and we'll all have to stay indoors. Again.

Nitefly · 20 Oct 2020 at 08:30

Hasn’t Autumn only just commenced?

200sols · 20 Oct 2020 at 09:24

Nitefly said:
Hasn’t Autumn only just commenced?

That depends if you are using the meteorological or astronomical method of working. Met office will define Autumn as September, October and November and Winter as starting on the 1st of December.

PlacidCasual · 20 Oct 2020 at 09:56

Cold and dry would be nice, wet and warms sucks. Grass keeps growing you get loads of slugs the following spring and going outside is miserable.

clv101 · 20 Oct 2020 at 10:00

Blackjack Davy said:
Nope, infact I predict another record warm winter. Snow is in retreat everywhere there was business in scotland involving husky dog sledding had to close down due to lack of snow in recent years. Within 30 years there may be no arctic sea ice at all and I wouldn't be surprised if I've seen my last snowfall already.

Despite the obvious impact of climate change, exceptional winters like 1946-47 or '62-63 are still possible. It's not even clear that they are less likely as they are driven by exceptional synoptics.

The La Nina and the more likely dominance of westerly or north westerly winds means this winter might not be as warm as recent winters, wetter conditions are only slightly more likely than average. I think the outlook for snow is better this winter than last.

Lysander · 20 Oct 2020 at 13:38

There are lots of ********** on Twitter.

EDIT: Really? The word s-n-o-w-f-l-a-k-e-s is banned?

Deleted member 77746 · 20 Oct 2020 at 13:40

**********

:confused:

really?

Winter 2020/2021

Capodecina