Winter 2023/24 - It's FREEZING!

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413x said:
It doesn't really get cold much. Gone is the cold crisp dry mornings we used to get. This damp, cold, dingy weather is the norm.
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Lol
Are you seriously suggesting that “cold crisp dry mornings” have been banished into the mists of time and will never be seen again?
With the greatest respect, the only thing dingy seems to be your outlook.
 
Derek W said:
Aye same here

news.sky.com

Storm Babet: Flood defences breached in eastern Scotland amid 'unprecedented' rainfall

Thousands more homes across eastern Scotland have been left without power due to the destructive storm - which has prompted a rare red warning from the Met Office.
news.sky.com news.sky.com
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And the following morning

U1bi1Vc.jpg


Big improvement but the rain's been constant all day here so the next thing to look out for is all the surface run off filing down through all the roads / tributaries.
 
Folk here are going to be lucky I think, water level is lapping at folks doors down by the riverside in town, but I don't think it's going to come up much more now.

Also no fresh food here now with the A90 being shut the past couple of days.
 
JonRGV250 said:
Lol
Are you seriously suggesting that “cold crisp dry mornings” have been banished into the mists of time and will never be seen again?
With the greatest respect, the only thing dingy seems to be your outlook.
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The pond. At my parents has frozen over for years.
When I was younger there were multiple years where could skate on the pond. This is just doesn't happen anymore.

Winters are damp and dingy. And very wet. It's rare it's get cold down south enough now for a crisp frost with no cloud and wind.
 
Okay, it's time to take a stab at LRF for winter 2023-24:

I am expecting a better than average chance of snow and cold episodes due to somewhat elevated blocking potential, and this will apply to all segments of winter. I don't foresee a blockbuster top ten sort of outcome (even 2009-10 was barely close to that anyway) but it could be a "reasonable" winter like perhaps 2011-12 was, with one or two memorable spells.

No doubt in this climate regime there are bound to be some milder spells in the mix so I would not be looking for CET values much better than 0.5 to 1.0 below recent normals or around 1961-1990 normals. I have the feeling that many would settle for this given the generally poor performance of many recent winters.

One factor that encourages me is the type of El Nino expected, which has similarities to 2009-10. Another factor is that most if not all regions of North America look set for a mild Pacific-dominated winter, which can be correlated with European cold (on the principle that it cannot be above normal in all regions of the hemisphere at the same time). Interior western regions of NA could see persistent high pressure leading to inversion cold locally.

Another encouraging factor is that July was cool, and a third significant index is a high lunar declination range (near its peak of 29 deg) which is correlated with blocking and high amplitude ridge-trough formations (Bryson, 1950; Lamb, 1975, as cited in Lamb's work, verified in my research).

In terms of actual spells of weather, I would be looking for best blocking potential around full moons (when lunar declination is in its highest range of values). Of course you could get on the wrong side of a block and see it turning very mild, but with any luck some colder blocking patterns will emerge around full moons which occur near the ends of each month in winter 2023-24. The actual northern declination max will be after full moon in Nov, concurrent in Dec, and earlier in Jan-Feb. A particularly stormy signal would be associated with the opposite end of this lunar declination cycle, new moons around 10th to mid-months.

Let's revisit this in April, but I would expect the verdict on winter 2023-24 to be, a mixture of all sorts of weather patterns with a better than average performance for cold and snow. Parts of Scotland could be very cold in this pattern as the storm track will often be closer to southern England. I would expect Wales, midlands and East Anglia to do well for snowfall, as well as onshore flow into Yorkshire and northeast England.

A caveat would be that any heavy falls of snow are likely to melt rapidly leading to elevated flood potential, also I would not be surprised if there were heavy rainfalls with some events, also leading to flood potential.

Ireland may be closer to frontal boundaries in general and could see a lot of mixed precip zones and foggy, cool spells that may be more sunny or clear further east.

The outcome I would least expect would be anticyclonic and dry as we saw in some recent winter months but that could develop in late February or march as the declination peaks move away from tidal peaks and induce a lower energy multi-cycle regime.
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Winter 2023/24 - Discussions & Forecasts

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First frost of the year last night which got down to -1.6 degrees C. It's only 0.3 degrees C right now. Still that's better than we had Wednesday to Saturday. Although the rain was pretty much non stop here it wasn't that heavy and we only had 50mm across the four days. The worst was the wind which was atrocious. Thursday night was the worst as it was sustained 40-50mph winds with gusts of 70+mph. One actually broke the anemometer on my weather station which is rated for 120mph winds. I think it was the same gust that blew me off the back door steps when I went to put the bin out. I have never felt anything like it. It blew me off the steps like I was a feather and felt exactly like someone had shoved me really hard. Luckily aside from a few downed trees there was very little damage around here and thankfully I have not heard of anyone being injured either so we got off lightly compared to closer to the border.
 
Uther said:
tldr: It's going to rain a lot.
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Thats what happens when the climate warms more energy in the atmosphere and the oceans = rain

People think the ice ages were covered in ice everywhere but glaciation was relatively rare confined to britain-scandanavia and the canadian shield most of western europe through asia right through into north america south of the ice sheets was dry grassland i.e. tundra simply because the precipitation was that much lower
 
its been very wet but managed to postcrete in some new posts that had both broken at ground level, in-between the downpours yesterday.
This unemployment lark is hard work so planning to have a day off bodyboarding with the tourists (half term) in Polzeath, The waters 16c but have a winter hooded suit and a rashy (i am not keen on heat but don't like to be cold either)
Finding my lightweight wellies are invaluable around st Breward so with some breathable overtrousers and jacket the weather doesn't stop me walking
Well muddy here though

Screenshot-2023-10-24-05-46-06-99-99c04817c0de5652397fc8b56c3b3817.jpg
 
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