Winter 2024/25 - Cold or Mild? Rain or Snow?

sprite1275 said:
Huge floods and puddles on a lot of the roads round here. Just seems like everything floods now every time it rains.
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Gully suckers are in short supply now that the road sweepers have little mechanised trucks that sweep all the leaves and debris from the gutters into any open grid.

Triggers broom is what we need.
 
Pretty hairy drive home just now but not as bad as it could have been - couple of places it was badly flooded but just short of being impassable, few broken down cars and some well intended but not very useful placement of cones to try and direct people away from deep water. Couple of bits I should have taken a little slower, well within my ability but still slower would have been better.
 
Dear oh dear back to strong winds and heavy rain again had to walk half a mile back from the bus stop and got absolutely drenched coat dripping wet had to chuck everything in the tumble dryer need to make the return trip this afternoon in which case I'll likely have to repeat all over again
 
We're probably looking at an Atlantic ridge/perhaps UK high initially, largely I suspect driven by the recent +AAM tendency, we then see the MJO move into more favourable phases during the first part of December which should reinforce the +AAM by the way of further +FT and +MT, adding westerly momentum into the atmosphere which will hopefully inject some oomph into the system for amplification/retrogression.

Unsure if we're looking at a Greenland or Scandinavian high, perhaps a mixture of both,. albeit I'd probably favour an extension into Scandi initially, this is mostly dependent on where the vortex lobes end up.

We do have a good shot at something colder/blocked into the 2nd half of December though, background drivers are pointing towards that and have been for a little while. In terms of the MJO;
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Winter Approaching: Forecast and Model Discussion Commentary

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:eek::eek:
 
The hallmark of UK weather is a random mix of moderate wind with dull wet overcast depressing gloomy cool or cold weather. Naff Spring and disappointing short Summer with the odd heat wave.
 
cainer said:
We got 45mph sustained with 70mph gusts forecast for here tomorrow, should be fun
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Same here , apparently starting mid day Saturday until mid day Sunday. 30-40mph sustained and gusts between 60-68mph. I can see a sleepless night on Saturday coming.
 
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