Chances of UKIP winning General Election?

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areksnumbr1sxylady said:
So what do you think? A year ago I would laugh at such idea... but now....
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They received 3.1% of the at the last general election and failed to win a single seat. Chances of winning the next election: NIL.

The founder of UKIP has some interesting revelations about the party's original ethos:

In 1993, along with backing British withdrawal from the EU, prospective members had to be sympathetic to the following: "It is a non-sectarian, non-racist party with no prejudices against foreigners or lawful minorities of any kind. It does not recognise the legitimacy of the European parliament and will send representatives only to the British parliament in Westminster."

"They got rid of all that after I left," says Sked, who resigned the leadership shortly after the 1997 general election. ..."They took out the bit about no prejudices against lawful minorities and, as soon as I disappeared, they all decided they wanted to go to the European parliament and take their expenses."

..."The party I founded has become a Frankenstein's monster," sighs Sked. "When I was leader, we wouldn't send MEPs to Europe because we didn't want to legitimise it. My policy was that if we were forced to take the salaries, we would give them to the National Health Service – they wouldn't be taken by the party or individuals. Now Ukip say they're against welfare cheats coming from eastern Europe, but in fact they're the welfare cheats."

Sked's suggestion is that Ukip MEPs do little to no work in Strasbourg and Brussels but take as much public money as possible in the form of salaries and, especially, expenses.

..."There's no reason to vote for Ukip," says Sked, "because if they believed in what they said they wouldn't be there."

But aren't Ukip MEPs in Strasbourg and Brussels there to expose the workings of the European parliament, and aren't their expenses funnelled into promoting the party's message that the UK should get out of the EU?

Sked giggles. "Oh, that's nonsense," he says. "They're hardly ever there. They just turn up for expenses. They don't turn up for key debates."

And when Ukip does vote, he suggests, there's no party line. "When there were only three Ukip MEPs, the LSE European Studies institute found they voted three different ways."
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(Source).

How interesting: the original UKIP refused to recognise the legitimacy of the European parliament and was opposed to any involvement with it, pledging to seek representation at the British parliament alone. (This is the exact opposite of the current situation, in which UKIP has no British representation whatsoever and its only successful candidates are MEPs!)

When Farage took over the party it became a right wing protest vote and all of a sudden UKIP members were desperately trying to get themselves onto the Brussels gravy train.

Gotta love those taxpayer funded benefits, eh Mr Farage? :D

Conanius said:
I think this is the end of the Lib Dems. UKIP will take their place.
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The Lib Dems have consistently polled at 20% since 1997. UKIP has never managed more than 3.1% during that same period, and has never gained a single seat in the House of Commons.

Can you explain how UKIP will take the place of the Lib Dems at the next election? I'm curious to know the details of the necessarily miraculous events involved.
 
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It looks a trend at European level to be anti-immigration given the other results on Sunday but I can't see UKIP running a country based on their very basic policies.
 
They probably wont win but they will do well and I think we will have another hung parliament.

The conservatives could pull all their voters back in by calling in/out vote on Europe as soon as the next election is over but they wont do it.

Quite a few people I know who would usually vote for conservatives at the general election are sticking with UKIP so it will be interesting to see the results.
 
Yup, no chance at all

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Evangelion said:
They received 3.1% of the at the last general election and failed to win a single seat. Chances of winning the next election: NIL.

The founder of UKIP has some interesting revelations about the party's original ethos:



(Source).

How interesting: the original UKIP refused to recognise the legitimacy of the European parliament and was opposed to any involvement with it, pledging to seek representation at the British parliament alone. (This is the exact opposite of the current situation, in which UKIP has no British representation whatsoever and its only successful candidates are MEPs!)

When Farage took over the party it became a right wing protest vote and all of a sudden UKIP members were desperately trying to get themselves onto the Brussels gravy train.

Gotta love those taxpayer funded benefits, eh Mr Farage? :D
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Even if we had Farage as PM I'd say it could be worse, we could for example have a PM who smiles and winks at 67 year old ladies forced to work on sex lines, or who wants to mine coal on the Great Barrier Reef and doesn't believe in climate change.
 
scorza said:
:confused: Isn't that what the Conservatives have said they're going to do?
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Not quite... guaranteed referendum after some negotiations. Those negotiations could take God knows how long and could also be used as a stalling tactic.
 
Nil chance.

Remember only ~33% of people turned out for the EU vote. Also it is proportional representation, so people know their vote means something (if they could have been bothered to vote)

General election and first past the post means most people will feel UKIP is a wasted vote. So will most likely vote Tory.

People were just using the EU as a little protest / warning shot. Rattle a few cages, and other parts of the EU had the same idea. The real surprise is how many votes UKIP took off Labour.

Sooner the EU goes back to being just a trade union the better. EVen that needs a huge amount of work though!
 
No chance of UKIP winning. Slim possibility of UKIP MP's making a difference when it comes to forming a coalition government.

I'm pretty sure there will be another coalition government. Doubt any party would want to side with UKIP because their out of Europe stance is fundamentally different from any other major party. Another lib dem-tory would make most sense but despite lib dem doing some good things in government it's been politically disastrous for them, so I think they would be reluctant.
 
I don't think they will win, but there is always a chance. People like winners and Farage is a winner. He has some momentum now and with 60% of the electorate having not voted, who can say which way they might go?

The country wouldn't collapse if they won, despite what some might claim. The civil service would ensure most of the blue sky thinking was limited to the cabinet and didn't become policy.
 
balky12 said:
Nil chance.

Remember only ~33% of people turned out for the EU vote. Also it is proportional representation, so people know their vote means something (if they could have been bothered to vote)

General election and first past the post means most people will feel UKIP is a wasted vote. So will most likely vote Tory.

People were just using the EU as a little protest / warning shot. Rattle a few cages, and other parts of the EU had the same idea. The real surprise is how many votes UKIP took off Labour.

Sooner the EU goes back to being just a trade union the better. EVen that needs a huge amount of work though!
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Papers are reporting that least 50% of UKIP voters will stick with them at general election, So its hardly just a protest vote.

"The evidence points to about half of those who have plumped for Ukip last week intending to stick by them for 2015, implying a vote share of 13%-14%, 10-11 points up on the 3% Farage achieved in 2010. This is a big enough increase to profoundly alter the electoral arithmetic across the country, and tip the balance in all sorts of marginal seats"
 
Nil chance.

It was a protest vote gone wrong in an election hardly anyone in the UK cares about. 36% turnout is hilariously low.
 
Evangelion said:
When Farage took over the party it became a right wing protest vote and all of a sudden UKIP members were desperately trying to get themselves onto the Brussels gravy train.

Gotta love those taxpayer funded benefits, eh Mr Farage? :D
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It is worth pointing out that Farage gave up a far higher level of income to become an MEP. He was a highly successful trader in the city and made far more money that politics would ever provide. One might disagree with his politics but to suggest the man is in it for "the money" is laughable.
 
topshot said:
Papers are reporting that least 50% of UKIP voters will stick with them at general election, So its hardly just a protest vote.

"The evidence points to about half of those who have plumped for Ukip last week intending to stick by them for 2015, implying a vote share of 13%-14%, 10-11 points up on the 3% Farage achieved in 2010. This is a big enough increase to profoundly alter the electoral arithmetic across the country, and tip the balance in all sorts of marginal seats"
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People will stick, but I doubt in those kind of numbers. Year is a long time in politics... people also grow wise.

I could be wrong though, I hope not. As much as I disagree with being in the EU, I Would rather be in it with a Tory Government than out with a UKIP one.
 
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