Whilst I don't believe they will win the next GE. This comment is ridiculously naive.... Greens are a joke and can't be compared to a party that has just roflstomped the EU election. They will almost certainly not win, but my bet would be that they will take overtake the Lib Dems as 3rd most dominant party in the next GE.
Chances of UKIP winning General Election?
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Whilst I don't believe they will win the next GE. This comment is ridiculously naive.... Greens are a joke and can't be compared to a party that has just roflstomped the EU election. They will almost certainly not win, but my bet would be that they will take overtake the Lib Dems as 3rd most dominant party in the next GE.
Except the Greens do have an MP whilst UKIP doesn't.
UKIP will struggle to take over the Lib Dems as they do not have the support structure in place to have a UKIP candidate in every seat and properly campaign for them. They may pick up one or two seats but even that will be difficult as they have broad low level support rather than specific high level support.
Small seeds, personally i think they will only get a handful of MP's and be in 4th behind LibDems. But parties tend to build on there success when small. Look how the libdem grew election after election. I do think that they will be the 3rd party by 2020
They won't win the general election but hopefully they will get the other parties to stop and listen to what the people want. They are supposed to represent us, not themselves. Glad to see UKIP giving the rest a dam good wake up call.
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Which will probably drain the Con vote and ensure a Lab majority government.
UKIP might get few/none MPs but that doesn't mean they won't upset the election a bit.
Indeed, this is something people seem to ignore.
UKIP support is very much from a core social group, the 55+ lower income mostly white males - this is important as without broader electoral appeal they will never get the required majority to take any seats in a FPTP system.
Now, we had proportional representation then I'd agree - UKIP would be a force to be reckoned with, but as we don't they will most likely sap much of the Conservative vote (estimates are at over 60% of UKIP support is from ex Conservatives).
Essentially, the death of the Liberal Democrats & the increase of UKIP I'd expect has done two things.
1. Many Liberal Democrat voters have switched, mostly to Labour & the Greens - with a number moving to the Conservatives.
2. The increase in vote share to UKIP has created a 'respectable' (comparatively to the BNP) alternative to the Conservatives - I'd expect this to cost the Conservatives a number of swing seats to Labour (due to splitting the right wing vote).
I'd also wager tactical voting is less likely to occur in many UKIP voters who will vote for UKIP causing Labour to win & end up resulting in no referendum on the EU (which I'd find equally hilarious & ironic in equal measure).
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Food for thought. Foreign workers/residents in this country could vote in local/European elections. They are unable to do so in parliamentary elections, because they are not citizens and don't have a right to vote. If you consider most of them voted for other party than UKIP (fair assessment since UKIP is against them working and residing in UK), then the number of UKIP supporters is actually higher than the outcome of EU elections, since it was artificially lowered by every migrant vote.
Btw, today those migrants return to their tills in shops and kitchens in restaurants knowing that best case scenario one in ten, worst case scenario one in three people they serve, clean after and meet on the street want them kicked out of the country.... That will certainly help integration.
Btw, today those migrants return to their tills in shops and kitchens in restaurants knowing that best case scenario one in ten, worst case scenario one in three people they serve, clean after and meet on the street want them kicked out of the country.... That will certainly help integration.
The Greens didn't benefit at all from the collapse of the Lib Dem vote. Their vote in the EU elections was pretty much flat. It seems that most disaffected Lib Dem voters either voted Labour, didn't vote or helped prop up the Conservatives.
The surprise for me was that the Conservatives didn't do anywhere near as badly as they should have done losing only ~4%.
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What is wise about voting for Lib/Lab/Con exactly? Their social and economic policies have destroyed the British way of life and bankrupt our nation.
The Conservatives aren't conservatives, Labour have became champagne socialists and the Lib Dems were always a bunch of cranks. A vote for any of those parties is a vote for mediocrity.
Libertarianism is far removed from my own heart, but even I'd rather back UKIP than see the cosmopolitan elite given yet another mandate for the slow ruination of our nation.
No chance whatsoever, I doubt they can even afford to field enough candidates and run the campaign.
Also remember these were European elections and they're effectively a one policy EU protest party.
Get Farage in front of the cameras talking about the economy, the NHS, schools etc etc.. They'll fall apart and all the Godfrey Bloom characters will be on full display.
Talking about bongo bongo land or worse is vaguely amusing but watch how people run when there's a chance of one of those individuals representing you in parliament, let alone on a national level.
The billboards almost write themselves too, the whole vote Nige, get Ed thing. One thing I suspect most of the electorate is agreed on is we don't want Ed Miliband as PM.
Also remember these were European elections and they're effectively a one policy EU protest party.
Get Farage in front of the cameras talking about the economy, the NHS, schools etc etc.. They'll fall apart and all the Godfrey Bloom characters will be on full display.
Talking about bongo bongo land or worse is vaguely amusing but watch how people run when there's a chance of one of those individuals representing you in parliament, let alone on a national level.
The billboards almost write themselves too, the whole vote Nige, get Ed thing. One thing I suspect most of the electorate is agreed on is we don't want Ed Miliband as PM.
You'd rather see a small group of nutters and ex BNP members ruin it quickly?
The thing that really stood out to me was the interviews with supporters.. most of them could barely string a sentence together and the ones that could were parroting word for word whatever they'd read/seen on TV.
"Immigrants innit."
Oh really? Please elaborate?
Erm... immigrants?
Good, glad we cleared that one up, and whilst we're at it precisely what do you contribute to the country you're desperately trying to exclude people from?
He drinks pints, he's like me.
Fair enough then! To Westminster!
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UKIP are pretty well funded, and the cost to actually stand for election is trivial.
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They have plenty of policies. Not all of them are good, but many are admirable such as their defence policy.
He's not fallen apart as yet, I doubt he would, he's a very wily politician.
I don't think the majority of people are that bothered by such comments. And is it really any worse than expense scandals and economic mismanagement?
I suspect most UKIP supporters would be happy to weather a term under Ed Miliband. If nothing else, it will increase their support.
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I don't think a UKIP government would be any worse than the alternatives. Our political class on the whole are a pretty mediocre sort and the civil service et al would make sure that only vaguely workable policies were acted on.
I was more referring to how I'd expect the general elections to turn out, not based off the EU results but looking at the local elections.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying the Greens will benefit that much - they are still a fringe party.
The Greens didn't do all that well in the local elections either did they? A few more seats but that is about it? They are still fairly irrelevant in UK politics other than having an MP.
Despite popular belief the Conservatives have turned this country around. Granted it's not perfect. But what do you expect with a joint Parliment?
Unemployment falling, GDP growing, debt decreasing. I will agree that they are now more of a middle of the road party than they should be, but hopefully the latest EU results will force them to edge slightly towards the right.
My 'wise' comment was aimed at people who perhaps have not even looked passed UKIP and just their immigration policy. Beyond that they have nothing, even their immigration policy is daft and unworkable. Conservatives have done a good job so far of reigning in the spiraling problem.
Like I said before, I want out the EU, but im not prepared to vote UKIP for that to happen, despite them being the only ones who want 100% out.
Oh I agree, I was simply pointing out that I'd imagine the small gains they did get would have been at the Lib dems expense. I don't recall saying they did 'well' or made huge gains tbh.
I only mention them as they did also gain & hold views which seem to resonate with a much larger percentage of the population than actually vote for them.
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Nil. Single issue party and a protest vote at best.
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The current government is an improvement upon the last in economic terms, but let us not fool ourselves. The ship is still sinking, it's just they're just bailing out the water a little faster. Our National debt has far from decreased, it's increased and will continue to do so until we get a grip. Socially, the Conservatives have been a disaster.
What is needed is some radical action and long-term thinking, which is something a career politician is unlikely to do.
Absolutely zero. Their success in the EU is a protest vote and nothing more. A warning shot to the main parties that they had better start listening, one way or another. But considering the pitifully low turnout, most people simply don't care anyway.
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