Chances of UKIP winning General Election?
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Which has a negative impact on the low skilled workers as it reduces pay pressure and increases competition for their jobs. UKIP obviously isn't the answer but it is no surprise that their support is strong amongst those that are most negatively impacted by immigration.
UKIP appeal to a certain demographic of voter rather than having broad appeal. That's why they'll never do well under a FPTP system.
How many councils do they now control after this 'earthquake'? Zero. That's the real indicator of how they will do at the general election.
How many councils do they now control after this 'earthquake'? Zero. That's the real indicator of how they will do at the general election.
And yet it isn't the government that has caused that, it is the low skilled/unskilled indigenous population that have caused that.
If the menial jobs that are now being done by migrants were done by unskilled non-migrants, there wouldn't have been the opportunity in the first place.
If would could only find a way of moving on those that were born here but have no care to put into the pot, only to take out of it, then the migrants with the work ethic would be gladly recieved!
For my sins, I have to go to Middlesbrough sometimes and just last week, staunch Labour voters were saying that they will never vote Labour or Conservatives again. All their votes went to UKIP as it vaguely supported their views.
Seeing as how Labour has won time and time again since time immemorial in all forms of elections in Middlesbrough, this is a BIG deal. Middlesbrough always was Labour, and for the first time ever, there is a flicker in the loyalty of the denizens old and young.
That's not the only thing which has an impact on low skilled workers though is the point.
How we setup our tax system, the minimum wage, failing to address the increase in the cost of living, stagnation of wages for a majority of the population, lack of affordable housing, zero hour contracts, crumbling workers rights - these are more significant issues concerning the welfare of the low skilled workers.
I'd expect them to vote for party interesting in addressing the above, but as the public tend to prefer sound-bites which allocate blame firmly on the doorstep of others we tend to have this problem.
Essentially it's bundling huge social problems into something you can write on the back of fag packet (stop immigration!) - a clear case of intellectual reductionism.
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Associate
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Yup, no chance at all
It would be UKIP on 68 seats, and Labour 28 short of a majority.
And besides, voters will go back to where they've come from in order to have the highest chance of getting their MP or preferred party elected.
UKIP will probably have a chance of upto 11% of the vote, but no more.
Soldato
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My Guess is
Tory Boys will get most MPs but will need UKip to run Government
Commie Labour will lose seats due to the Scotch declared independence
LibDems stuffed with 6 seats
Greens lose seat to UKip,
UKip gain 39 seats
Tory Boys will get most MPs but will need UKip to run Government
Commie Labour will lose seats due to the Scotch declared independence
LibDems stuffed with 6 seats
Greens lose seat to UKip,
UKip gain 39 seats
I doubt it.
Also, do you really think Brighton will switch from The Green Party to UKIP?, that's one huge ideological swing.
(also, not sure if serious)
Laughable how deluded you are.
I doubt UKIP even have 39 realistic candidates to vote for!
UKIP currently have zero seats, perhaps at the GE they pick up 1 or 2.
and again, the conservatives would never form a coalition with UKIP, more likely to join a coalition with labour than UKIP!
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Did you not say the same thing about the Euro? =\
My crystal ball is currently broken, so I cannot say. But I think it is going to be one of the most interesting GE.
Just went through the numbers myself. Pretty much is the case. Anti-EU parties are up 4%, yet all of them except UKIP and An Independence From Europe saw their share of the vote decrease on 2009 numbers. Christian parties saw their share of the vote crumble, and left-leaning parties (Lib Dems, Greens, Socialist Labour Party) are all down. Nationalist parties stayed fairly flat (with the exception of the BNP, but I attributed their fall to anti-EU parties as I suspect that's where the voters went, leaving the Nationalist core behind).
The data would suggest that UKIP merely consolidated the Eurosceptic and Protest vote, gaining a marginal number of Tory voters along the way. It was Labour who were the real winners, taking from the Conservatives and consolidating the Left vote. I guess that doesn't make great headlines though.
No. (I actually said they would do well in the European elections)
I think the difference is, there is no data to support this view. All data would suggest the opposite - that UKIP will take a small number (probably less than 5) seats in the general election and largely remain a fringe party. In fact, the majority of current polls suggest UKIP could walk away with nothing - not one single seat - though given current sentiment I find that difficult to believe.
For all the hype, anyone would think last Thursday was the makings of a revolution. In reality, it represented a consolidation of voters, with a very small overall swing in opinion. Unless something drastic happens, election 2015 is shaping up to be business as usual. The end result will be a Labour or Tory majority or minority or a coalition with the Lib Dems. No other party will have enough seats to influence things.
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Admittedly I've not visited the North East recently but the voting results don't quite paint such a dismal picture:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27576104
UKIP did increase their share of the vote by nearly 14% in the North East, but Labour went up 11.5% as well.
The North is still a Labour heartland, with Labour getting over a third of the vote in both the North East and North West. In Yorkshire UKIP got 31% of the vote compared to 29% for Labour so I'm proposing that Yorkshire is kicked out of 'the north' and is replaced with London where Labour got over a third of the vote.
The big losers in the north were the Lib Dems and the BNP (no loss there), with a smaller loss for the Conservatives of 2-5% which would be expected for a ruling party 4 years into its term.
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Soldato
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The Conservatives will win the next election, lots of safe seats, improving economy and typically the opposition vote tends to crumble away the closer you get to the election, they may even get a majority. The other thing going the Tories way is Labour's choice of leader, Mr 'my shopping bill is £70 a week', and 'oh that's just on fruit and vegetables'.
The biggest losers will undoubtedly be the Liberal Democrats and we might even see (if the news papers are to be believed) Nick Clegg lose his own seat. The Greens should really forget about trying to convince people to switch from Labour to Greens, they should take advantage of the Lib Dems unpopularity and target the South West. I can see Lib Dems voters more willing to switch allegiance to an alternative left wing party that's not Labour then Labour voters switching to something else.
2015 could well be an interesting year, we could see two leaders from the main political parties resign.
The biggest losers will undoubtedly be the Liberal Democrats and we might even see (if the news papers are to be believed) Nick Clegg lose his own seat. The Greens should really forget about trying to convince people to switch from Labour to Greens, they should take advantage of the Lib Dems unpopularity and target the South West. I can see Lib Dems voters more willing to switch allegiance to an alternative left wing party that's not Labour then Labour voters switching to something else.
2015 could well be an interesting year, we could see two leaders from the main political parties resign.
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Imagine the fun if Nick Clegg does lose his seat and the Tories fail to get a majority. The Tories would have a choice between forming a minority government or another Con/Dem coalition with a weakened Liberal Democrats under a new leader. After losing so many seats, I would doubt the Lib Dems will elect another Nick Clegg. Their next leader is likely to be leaning further left and less willing to accommodate the Tories. Rock and a hard place?
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