Would the EU survive brexit

dowie · 12 May 2016 at 19:58

John40 said:
So you think if it's an Out by 2 or 3% we'll immediately leave no second referendum, no new offer from Europe - get real.
Europe will just watch us walk away will they ? they will be in mass panic mode, they will offer almost anything and we''l have a second vote and it will be easily enough to turn it round.

nothing to do with Europe whether we leave or not

I think you need to get real, you still don't seem to get that this is an equally weighted in/out referendum, there is no 60% threshold required or anything like that, the government doesn't get to run it again to get the 'right' result simply because the EU has offered some sweeteners (the time to make their case is before the upcoming vote) and likewise there would be no re-run if the out votes are say 48%

it is quite likely going to be a closely run thing

John40 · 12 May 2016 at 20:04

dowie said:
nothing to do with Europe whether we leave or not

I think you need to get real, you still don't seem to get that this is an equally weighted in/out referendum, there is no 60% threshold required or anything like that, the government doesn't get to run it again to get the 'right' result and likewise there would be no re-run if the out votes are say 48%

it is quite likely going to be a closely run thing

You're simply too trusting of the EU, you do know also that the referendum result isn't binding don't you ?

I'm not saying there wouldn't be a lot of moaning from the Outers including me but unless it's a very big majority for Out which it won't be we'll have another vote pretty damm quick.

cactusweasel · 12 May 2016 at 20:05

The government should not push their own opinions on the public, especially when the public fund these arguments.

Much like the BBC should not be biased, they claim to not be, but you can read between the lines.

robfosters · 12 May 2016 at 20:06

John40 said:
I'm not saying there wouldn't be a lot of moaning from the Outers including me but unless it's a very big majority for Out which it won't be we'll have another vote pretty damm quick.

I've actually seen quite a lot of people say that although they are voting to remain, if the government don't respect the result and re-run it, they'll switch to out. A quick rerun won't get a different result unless it's rigged. I think the main vote is going to be rigged anyway.

The Mad Rapper · 12 May 2016 at 20:08

Efour said:
UK won't leave so don't matter. Sweden's media is afraid UK leaves cos I think opinion here is overall same as UK. With similar deals and lack of own border control. It will survive .

How do you know? Read the minds of the electorate can you?

John40 · 12 May 2016 at 20:11

robfosters said:
I've actually seen quite a lot of people say that although they are voting to remain, if the government don't respect the result and re-run it, they'll switch to out. A quick rerun won't get a different result unless it's rigged. I think the main vote is going to be rigged anyway.

As Cameron keeps telling everybody how important this vote is I agree that one way or the other be it fixed or re-run we'll be staying in.

robfosters · 12 May 2016 at 20:13

My heart sinks at the thought of our government rigging a vote. Particularly as Dodgy Dave was accusing other countries of being corrupt just a few days ago. Could he be the ultimate hypocrite?

John40 · 12 May 2016 at 20:16

I know it was a Labour administration but any Govt. that can murder a good man on a Welsh hiilside is perfectly capable of something as simple as rigging a referendum.

Chris Wilson · 12 May 2016 at 20:18

So how would you foresee a rigging being implemented, assuming it was a one and only voting, no re-run?

Uther · 12 May 2016 at 20:22

robfosters said:
Dodgy Dave ... Could he be the ultimate hypocrite?

You have to ask? If it's a close out vote, I fully expect another one, after some 'renegotiation'.

dowie · 12 May 2016 at 20:24

John40 said:
You're simply too trusting of the EU, you do know also that the referendum result isn't binding don't you ?

eh? Again it has nothing to do with the EU - they can't make us have a second one, the premis of the referendum is that there is only going to be one - that has already been stated in advance by the PM. As for not binding... good luck to any politician that tries to ignore it.

I'm not saying there wouldn't be a lot of moaning from the Outers including me but unless it's a very big majority for Out which it won't be we'll have another vote pretty damm quick.

What basis do you have to claim that when it has already been stated by the PM that that isn't how this will work.

itchy · 12 May 2016 at 20:27

I very much doubt it.

Greece needs another bail out soon and debt relief.
Turkey getting fast tracked into the EU.
France is fed up and so is Holland.
Merkel looks like she be getting booted out in 2018.

Once we leave the whole edifice that is the EU will crumble to dust.

So vote leave, sit back and watch the movie as I am sure it will be very compelling.

John40 · 12 May 2016 at 20:28

dowie said:
eh? Again it has nothing to do with the EU - they can't make us have a second one, the premis of the referendum is that there is only going to be one - that has already been stated in advance by the PM. As for not binding... good luck to any politician that tries to ignore it.

What basis do you have to claim that when it has already been stated by the PM that that isn't how this will work.

You trust Cameron to keep his word ?

this is the Govt. that does a U-turn every few days. I wouldn't believe a word that comes out of his mouth.

dowie · 12 May 2016 at 20:34

John40 said:
You trust Cameron to keep his word ? this is the Govt. that does a U-turn every few days. I wouldn't believe a word that comes out of his mouth.

OK but the question was on what basis you believe it will be re-run?

robfosters · 12 May 2016 at 20:38

dowie said:
OK but the question was on what basis you believe it will be re-run?

Probably some bullcrap about no clear majority.

dowie · 12 May 2016 at 20:41

robfosters said:
Probably some bullcrap about no clear majority.

I'm asking on what the basis for the other poster's belief that it will be re-run if close. Is it just a random opinion or is it actually based on something factual?

John40 · 12 May 2016 at 20:43

dowie said:
I'm asking on what basis the other poster is making his claim. Is it just a random opinion or is it actually based on something factual?

Of course it's an opinion the same as yours is, no one knows what will happen but I would be shocked to say the least if we had an Out vote and it was simply accepted no questions asked.

The Mad Rapper · 12 May 2016 at 20:45

John40 said:
Of course it's an opinion the same as yours is, no one knows what will happen but I would be shocked to say the least if we had an Out vote and it was simply accepted no questions asked.

Why wouldn't it be? That's the whole point of the vote.

dowie · 12 May 2016 at 20:54

John40 said:
Of course it's an opinion the same as yours is, no one knows what will happen but I would be shocked to say the least if we had an Out vote and it was simply accepted no questions asked.

No I'm basing my position on public statements from Cameron and Donald Tusk etc.. that it won't be re-run. On the other hand you're just stating an opinion based on, it seems, nothing other than a distrust of politicians?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-35670906

David Cameron has said the idea of doing this all again is "for the birds".
The UK government has said a Leave vote would mean going to Brussels and invoking Article 50 immediately.

European Council President Donald Tusk said if a majority in Britain vote to leave, "that is what will happen".

For instance, last week Belgium's Prime Minister Charles Michel said bluntly there were "no second chances" on this.

Manfred Weber MEP, the leader of the largest group in the Parliament (the centre-right EPP) spelt it out: "If people are being told in the United Kingdom that if they say no they will get a better deal, we have to say to them very clearly the agreement on the table is the agreement. There will be no follow up negotiations."

John40 · 12 May 2016 at 20:57

dowie said:
No I'm basing my position on public statements from Cameron and Donald Tusk that it won't be re-run. On the other hand you're just stating an opinion based on, it seems, nothing other than a distrust of politicians?

You trust politicians ? now that is funny and probably pretty unique.