Greece owes a tonne of money to the European banks. I can't imagine what exiting or attempting to exit the EU would do to it. Are you suggesting it would try to pull an Argentina and just declare, effectively, national bankruptcy?
Would the EU survive brexit
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Greece owes a tonne of money to the European banks. I can't imagine what exiting or attempting to exit the EU would do to it. Are you suggesting it would try to pull an Argentina and just declare, effectively, national bankruptcy?
This.
I imagine if you looked at the suicide rate of southern Norway it would be pretty normal/low.
Pretty much. There have been calls for it to do so for many years. The only reason it is still in the EU at all is for the financing, its a very precarious relationship.
Yes can you imaging our government actually having to make decisions. They will be like, oh, the Eu politicions!
I really can't see either decision being 'right'.
Ultimately I think I'd rather be involved in Europe and I can't see that being done from outside the eu.
Andi.
When was the Argentinian default? About twenty years ago? It still doesn't seem to have recovered. In fact they were trying to nationalize the assets of a Spanish company not long ago, iirc.
From what I was reading awhile back Germany has a lot of stuff leveraged that would cause significant issues if Greece defaulted.
I genuinely get some of the arguments for exit (though let's be honest here, it's basically an objection to migrants that's driving most Brexit supporters), but what really baffles me are not those who want to leave, but those who think we can and get some sort of "good deal" or that our trade wont be drastically affected. Neither are remotely plausible. The other countries aren't going to let Britain stick two fingers up at them, walk out the door and then keep popping back in for cake.
I'm not saying that it would be amazing for Greece, but they've lost 25% of their GDP since the crisis, still are utterly crippled by debt, have third world levels of unemployment, are used as a dumping ground for waves of migrants, and have bureaucrats imposed on them by Brussels to keep oversight of their country.
That causes a lot of resentment. There are many who would rather default with all the risks that comes with it.
So do we. Not as exposed as Germany but if Greece defaulted the UK would take a substantial hit. It was around £12bn last year, I think. The US has quite a bit of exposure too.
Early in the Greek crisis, I was against bailing them out. They lied to get into the EU, they largely got themselves into this mess (yes, I'm aware of those that blame German interest rates but that doesn't mean you have to borrow more than you can afford just because). However, having gone this far down the road, we're essentially saddled with it. A greek default would cause a lot of damage.
Oh yes, Grexit could cause a fresh sovereign debt crisis. If the Greeks do vote to leave post Brexit, you can bet that the Germans throw everything at them to keep them in.
I don't disagree with any of that. I mean Iceland took their medicine and got back on their feet. But then, in all honesty, that country's causes were very different. The one thing I'd pick out of your post is the bit about imposition of outside bureaucrats. Honestly, they kind of invited that with the level of corruption and mismanagement that the previous Greek governments were guilty of.
Soldato
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It was there before Britain joined and it will be there afterwards if Britain leaves. It is a massive conceit to think the UK is so important that the sky will fall if Britain is no longer part of it. As far as financial crisis goes the UK has a Balance of Payments crisis.
The Greek 'bail out' was never about helping Greece, it was about protecting European banks by switching debt from the fragile banks to the broader shoulders of the European nations themselves and ensuring that the barriers were in place to prevent the contagion rolling through Spain and Italy.
Frankly, the EU's treatment of Greece is the single best argument for Brexit; I'm surprised they don't make more of it.
Soldato
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this - i don't think europe will survive either way.
the euro is a mess and the migrant issue will make counties more nationalist.
lol.
I can't see the EU succeeding in it's current form. It's slowly drifted away from protecting it's member states to protecting itself. I consider it, in terms of an organisation, on the same level I consider FIFA. It's just that FIFA ran out of luck sooner.
However, I do think a European Union is a good thing, and is the future. But not until it is restructured in such a way that puts Europe first rather than the EU.
I also believe that Greece is doomed to default. I would rather the EU stopped pumping money into it and making the problem so much worse when it does eventually happen.
Had DC managed to get proper reform i'd happily go tick the YES box. But what he got was a joke, a lot of crap, quite frankly. I think it's insulting that he thinks the UK will fall for his "amazing deal". He should be ashamed.
However, I do think a European Union is a good thing, and is the future. But not until it is restructured in such a way that puts Europe first rather than the EU.
I also believe that Greece is doomed to default. I would rather the EU stopped pumping money into it and making the problem so much worse when it does eventually happen.
Had DC managed to get proper reform i'd happily go tick the YES box. But what he got was a joke, a lot of crap, quite frankly. I think it's insulting that he thinks the UK will fall for his "amazing deal". He should be ashamed.