Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Soldato
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Gold is less than $1500/ounce, despite it being over $1670 recently. So even that isn't a completely safe haven.

Gold is money and people need money so the price for gold does vary dramatically or at least consider it to have a very wide range whether its being considered positive or negative in a trend between years. It is years it moves in though we have a spot price, thats the magic of the market but the real physical deals of gold are taken with the full advantage that it never changes and it sits there for security value price high or low.

I want to dig out the gold price post Nixon shock and we came off the fix back then, if we want volatility comparison that'd be it because that was the end of almost many decades worth of being sat on. I'll post it later but massive sells seems normal. This oil being so cheap is a gift to miners, the gold ones just happen to have a product which even with falls is way above their cost. Not sure about other commodity metals as much as they are industrial and gold relates to money and volatility, trade between countries.

[also with sterling lowest rates ever, weak as hell consider gold in GBP]

Shell doing very well, some of this is relief rally and some just it was too cheap even if oil price sucks for a year or so.
 
Soldato
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In The Sea Of Leveraged Liquidity
Gold is less than $1500/ounce, despite it being over $1670 recently. So even that isn't a completely safe haven.

Yea its worth noting that 08 was the same though. The gold sell off is a combination of shaking out weak hands and fund managers drawing down their gold allocation to meet margin calls and stuff. In a liquidity crisis, everything goes down. There will be a gold run in 6 months time, maybe even less, but there is usually a little lag.
 
Caporegime
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You do realise plenty of oil companies were already in trouble before this? In fact some made huge numbers redundant last year in 2019?

The collapse of Thomas Cook, flybe, etc has affected aviation fuel supplies in that they cannot sell it. Then this on top. All flights grounded. Nobody needs it.

I specialise in the oil and gas industry and I can assure you companies will go under. I can't name specific names so I mentioned the big 2 here in the UK. But a lot of them are struggling especially the smaller players and so are the big ones. Oil prices dropping means they make losses. They can't compete with cheap Saudi oil. Our running costs are too high in comparison .

The oil and gas industry is perversely integrated into the government too at the highest levels. They know they can and have been picking up the phone to tell them they want special treatment like they always have done in the past.

Government will bend over backwards in the current climate too.
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I didn’t see the government bailing out BP in 2011.

Sure the smaller ones will struggle but that isn’t the two you said. And BP weren’t struggling on 2019. They just had a reorg or two.
 
Caporegime
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.

I didn’t see the government bailing out BP in 2011.

Sure the smaller ones will struggle but that isn’t the two you said. And BP weren’t struggling on 2019. They just had a reorg or two.

With the oil leak?

That didn't effect the industry just them. When it effects them all is when you see the government get away with all sorts. I can't go into specifics but the guard is slowly changing we are being tougher on them but I imagine if push came to shove they would get what they needed to survive.
 
Don
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I don’t remember oil companies making huge numbers redundant last year.

But oil companies will go bust over this (Premier Oil is teetering on the edge apparently).

The only good news is the UK industry went through a painful round of cost cutting after 2015 such that average costs are now about $20 a barrel, but with new projects generally costed on $40-$60 a barrel it will be grim for the foreseeable.
 
Soldato
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ChCh, NZ
Notice how the DJI plummets when Trump opens his mouth. His latest conference is literally causing panic.

Agreed. It was all a good laugh the past 3-4 years when he was winding up the lefties and everyone virtue signalling for their 'likes' and 'followers' and attention and stuff, but now he's causing real damage. Not imaginary damage as spouted by bubblegum fake media the past 4 years for their clicks, but actual economic damage. He needs to disappear under a rock and let an adult step in to handle this.
 
Associate
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Steer clear, unless you can put yourself in a position where you're more sure, or have a better understanding and tolerance for the risk. It's not a game to be playing if you don't know what you're letting yourself in for, especially at a time like this.

I've never bought shares, Curious about it all and would like to own a few at some point, but in reality but probably never will just because of the risk involved. I'd rather save and buy a house...

I think people's reasoning for wanting to dive into the markets now is due to the changes around the world markets ... But as most have sensibly said, still huge risks if you don't have the money to burn.
 
Soldato
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Sacramento, CA, USA
I don’t remember oil companies making huge numbers redundant last year.

But oil companies will go bust over this (Premier Oil is teetering on the edge apparently).

The only good news is the UK industry went through a painful round of cost cutting after 2015 such that average costs are now about $20 a barrel, but with new projects generally costed on $40-$60 a barrel it will be grim for the foreseeable.

Indeed, all ongoing projects now are being tested down even lower (to $10-20/bbl) to high grade capital spend too.

Comments on BP/Shell taking government bailouts I think are nonsense, Shell possibly has more capital issues because of their Brazil commitments but BP restructured a couple of years ago (and already in the process of restructuring once more from the new CEO) and has a pretty strong balance sheet. I'd be worried for PMO/ENQ etc.
 
Soldato
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Thought Shell was in a better place, I wanted a bias to them as they operate more gas which I think is good long term. It'd make sense if BP having already royally dropped an anvil on their foot previously are 'ok' now every part of the industry is off balance.
This isnt unprecedented, we had this previously from OPEC where they saturate supply as a tactic and I wish a smart commentator had reminded me of the possibility. PMO hedged enough to pay the bills apparently, maybe the point is for how long and the speculation is the hedge expires too soon.

BP isnt british, a few years back they could be labelled quite significantly Russian based as they made so much money there. I didnt follow the asset sale and Rosneft thing but in any case this is either a global or operation majority based in another country. The whole concept of bailout is off anyway, Rolls Royce getting nationalised in some way made sense decades back but neither of these companies qualifies even close. Sadly UK is not big in oil or gas, if we were really clever on fracking but people are too wary.
I'm not anti green projects but its just not done in a clever way, efficiency is essential. The Seven has the largest tidal range in the world, daily such giant amounts of energy flowing our fingers unused while we import and ask why our currency is falling.
Its our national asset in that way and are we using it for power ? no, investment wise we are so dull imo. This is best plan forward, the rest is a lead balloon going to hit us on the head later :p


I've never bought shares, Curious about it all and would like to own a few at some point, but in reality but probably never will just because of the risk involved. I'd rather save and buy a house...

I think people's reasoning for wanting to dive into the markets now is due to the changes around the world markets ... But as most have sensibly said, still huge risks if you don't have the money to burn.
Your cash is on a slow burn so there is no way to save it properly, hence why house prices are so high in the first place.
Dont buy shares, buy unit trusts which in turn own the shares. Its far more liquid, safer, isolated from the banks assets themselves and the costs are far lower for the person in the street. It also gets you away from this emotional panic effect which drives people away from cheap high yielding assets into the horribly politically compromised cash you mention.
Read or discuss that direction with someone, five year plan now is a good time to take interest same as the first post on this thread was great placement on the chart.
I do want to rebuy JII this month, it is risky for sure. I should probably aim to buy this monthly. Also IGG on +30% revenue etc https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virus-revives-beaten-down-cfd-100716207.html

You cannot win in cash really, its wrong but there it is; because I always write too many words have a visualization of the last Federal Reseve Open Market Committee minutes:
3thfxz.gif
 
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Caporegime
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BP own 19.75% of Rosneft. Not sure this makes them Russian, it hasn’t been making as much as you’d think. I think 2018 actually made a loss from memory.
 
Soldato
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18 Oct 2002
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West Midlands
Watching Cuomo saying it's going to be maybe 9 months for New York I imagine tomorrow will be another blood bath ?

Stock market indexes are going to be at least 50% down on the highs, the impact that a pandemic can have is literally untested. Governments can only prop up businesses for so long before they'd need to let them go.
 
Soldato
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Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Out of hours sentiment is not always accurate, some of it reflects other markets like Japan so its over 12 hours away but I'd guess FTSE open lower. SP500 and Brent crude show as down 5%

More activity online is good news for some https://us.cnn.com/videos/business/...x.cnn/video/playlists/stories-worth-watching/

BP own 19.75% of Rosneft. Not sure this makes them Russian, it hasn’t been making as much as you’d think. I think 2018 actually made a loss from memory.

Yea its a complicated situation. My take is the gains if any are lumpy and asset related. They did a deal to be involved and an accepted player, like they do anywhere Iraq or any country with various details and troubles.
BP is also the main seller to USA military I think so they have a large contrast. Everything is high risk now seems to me so Im not put off by Russia exactly but still my aim for lots of years has been just to trade it, the OPEC tricks and tactics is another reason why that seems best also.

So BP and a gold miner is Russia shares I have and theres POLY and others. Energy imports is a requirement not an option for China, both countries have a policy towards gold retention or backing to their trade. If Russia has no fear of volatility its probably related to that policy
https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/08/05/the-worlds-5-biggest-gold-exportersimporters.aspx
 
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Caporegime
Joined
18 Mar 2008
Posts
32,742
Dow opened at 18100 and hit the 7% stop

Honestly the time they're taking on this Senate bill is a disgrace to the average American trying to survive, they've been practically abandoned, it doesn't matter which side is doing it, they're both at fault. I'm thankful that although I may not like the UK government for various reasons, they acted swiftly on giving people a safety net.
 
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