There is going to be a ton of cash and liquidity floating around and it will need a home. Couple that with pent up consumer and manufacturing demand in the economy. It will take a long time (years) to hit the highs we saw just a month ago, and this is doing real, lasting damage to the global economy but I think we will see a reasonable recovery by the end of 2020.
Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
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Not necessarily
I was surprised people were staying in a week or two ago.
Still to me much more risk of down than up
As it was a week ago.
If you think this is going to get better next week buy now. But I very much don't think it is.
Daz is on the money. People seem to be forgetting that much of the fallout from future events is priced in. People are anticipating deaths to rise, which is why prices fell weeks ago.
I don’t like resorting to cliches, but the adage “buy the rumour, sell the news” has a lot of truth to it.
I don’t like resorting to cliches, but the adage “buy the rumour, sell the news” has a lot of truth to it.
It still really depends on how the US goes, the inital expected drops are priced in but if it gets dire there, there is still a significant way to fall, if the predicted -24% in GDP for the 2nd quarter is carried into the third things will get ultra messy. Risk is skewed to the downside for me.
Soldato
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If I'd had a crystal ball 2-4 weeks ago sure I would have sold. It was bound to go down but I dare say not many people thought so much until it started spreading so significantly in Europe/US and neither the UK nor US reacted properly? Who could have anticipated Boris/Trump's poor response? Hell otherwise everyone would have sold right?! (Inb4 psycho sonny who sold at the absolute peak and will buy in at the absolute bottom)
There is no way I'm selling now and taking an -18% hit on my S&S ISA.
But I'll be carrying on depositing as normal at the start of every month and holding on for the ride. May dabble a little extra when it does feel like we're somewhere near the bottom and/or heading back up.
Soldato
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Unlimited QE from the Federal reserve announced, surely last gasp attempt ?
Yup, there is still so much uncertainty about how long this crisis is going to persist. Until a vaccine is announced, or the global death rates/new cases plateaus the stockmarket is going to continue downwards. I don't think the decline will necessarily be as sharp as it has been the last 2 weeks but at the moment it's hard to see what other measures could be adopted to provide positive stimulus.
Beyond the short term impact of rising death tolls in the US and UK, looking at what's happening in the rest of the world is eye opening. Countries that have got a handle on the epidemic are seeing infection rates shoot up again as soon as travel restrictions are lifted. There may be a permanent shift in the world's approach to international travel, and mass gatherings in general.
Also remember the US markets aren't just pricing in Covid-19 economic disruption, you're also seeing the evaporation of the fantasy gains that were made in the last year or so.
I expect a lot of volatility, but with an overall downward trend continuing for weeks yet. Companies going bankrupt despite government intervention could be the next trigger for a downward lurch.
I can’t honestly wrap my head around some of the decisions here. So, we are at approx 40% from the highs.
I’m going to make an assumption that either a) you are still ‘in’, b) you retreated to cash with some loss, or c) you got lucky and got out before the big drops.
A) If you are ‘in’, you can’t sell now and absorb the loss.
B) If you retreated to cash and lost some of your capital, you’re now ‘waiting’ to get back in.
C) If you got lucky, you are waiting to get back in too.
Let’s be realistic here. I assume you believe that the market will - over time - increase, and your capital is there for the ride.
Isn’t now a good a time as any to get back in? Even if it goes down further - which it may or may not do - you have still ‘won’! You are still in for a massive leg-up, when then market rebounds. If you have managed to preserve your cash, without incurring a significant loss, you have won the battle - and have a major opportunity to get a 80% rise if/when the market retains where it was before the crash, which it could well do.
That is a significant increase in your capital, and when compounded over a longer investment horizon, will be an immense return. Isn’t this what you started the investment journey for?
I’m not saying we are at the bottom, but aren’t today’s prices good enough? No financial advice intended, but just encouraging you to reflect on your logical assumptions.
I understand why the thread has moved this way, and the irrational exuberance of the markets recently has led to people getting involved without thinking of the consequences. However, think of it another way: Goldman Sachs/JPMorgan have predicted a -5% (Q1) and -20 something % (Q2) losses. Might it be that the market is pricing in these significant changes? In effect, the markets are assuming two really bad quarters, hence the prices at the moment; might it be the case that any news, which is in any way positive, will see an uptick of some magnitude? This will affect your returns.
At the end of the day it is your money, and you should make the investment decisions that are right for your circumstances. If you believe the markets or society have been fundamentally changed because of this - and maybe they have - then shouldn’t you be looking for alternative investments?
I’m going to make an assumption that either a) you are still ‘in’, b) you retreated to cash with some loss, or c) you got lucky and got out before the big drops.
A) If you are ‘in’, you can’t sell now and absorb the loss.
B) If you retreated to cash and lost some of your capital, you’re now ‘waiting’ to get back in.
C) If you got lucky, you are waiting to get back in too.
Let’s be realistic here. I assume you believe that the market will - over time - increase, and your capital is there for the ride.
Isn’t now a good a time as any to get back in? Even if it goes down further - which it may or may not do - you have still ‘won’! You are still in for a massive leg-up, when then market rebounds. If you have managed to preserve your cash, without incurring a significant loss, you have won the battle - and have a major opportunity to get a 80% rise if/when the market retains where it was before the crash, which it could well do.
That is a significant increase in your capital, and when compounded over a longer investment horizon, will be an immense return. Isn’t this what you started the investment journey for?
I’m not saying we are at the bottom, but aren’t today’s prices good enough? No financial advice intended, but just encouraging you to reflect on your logical assumptions.
I understand why the thread has moved this way, and the irrational exuberance of the markets recently has led to people getting involved without thinking of the consequences. However, think of it another way: Goldman Sachs/JPMorgan have predicted a -5% (Q1) and -20 something % (Q2) losses. Might it be that the market is pricing in these significant changes? In effect, the markets are assuming two really bad quarters, hence the prices at the moment; might it be the case that any news, which is in any way positive, will see an uptick of some magnitude? This will affect your returns.
At the end of the day it is your money, and you should make the investment decisions that are right for your circumstances. If you believe the markets or society have been fundamentally changed because of this - and maybe they have - then shouldn’t you be looking for alternative investments?
This isn't my pension fund, which I'm continuing to pay into anyway. In terms of trading, on balance I see more potential future downside than upside right now, better buying opportunities are ahead imo...although I am getting very close to pulling the trigger on some MSFT (they stand to do well out of a long term move to remote working)....but I think we're due at least one more big lurch downwards, so I'm holding fire for now.
Generally people seem better at pointing out negative actions rather than positive actions. I.e- they'll say to sell when things start dropping, but not to sell when things are at a peak and we're in still waters.
Likewise, very few people seem to advise buying when things are at historic lows, yet positive sentiment is all over when prices are high and rising fast. It's as though they're following herd mentality and siding with whatever is the prevailing sentiment at that time. It wasn't that long ago that "analysts" were tipping the FTSE to break 8,000.
Likewise, very few people seem to advise buying when things are at historic lows, yet positive sentiment is all over when prices are high and rising fast. It's as though they're following herd mentality and siding with whatever is the prevailing sentiment at that time. It wasn't that long ago that "analysts" were tipping the FTSE to break 8,000.