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Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by mcast123, 2 Apr 2009.

  1. silversurfer

    Capodecina

    Joined: 13 Jul 2004

    Posts: 19,416

    Location: Stanley Hotel, Colorado

    Gold is money and people need money so the price for gold does vary dramatically or at least consider it to have a very wide range whether its being considered positive or negative in a trend between years. It is years it moves in though we have a spot price, thats the magic of the market but the real physical deals of gold are taken with the full advantage that it never changes and it sits there for security value price high or low.

    I want to dig out the gold price post Nixon shock and we came off the fix back then, if we want volatility comparison that'd be it because that was the end of almost many decades worth of being sat on. I'll post it later but massive sells seems normal. This oil being so cheap is a gift to miners, the gold ones just happen to have a product which even with falls is way above their cost. Not sure about other commodity metals as much as they are industrial and gold relates to money and volatility, trade between countries.

    [also with sterling lowest rates ever, weak as hell consider gold in GBP]

    Shell doing very well, some of this is relief rally and some just it was too cheap even if oil price sucks for a year or so.
     
  2. Trusty

    Capodecina

    Joined: 12 Mar 2006

    Posts: 13,170

    Location: In The Sea Of Leveraged Liquidity

    Yea its worth noting that 08 was the same though. The gold sell off is a combination of shaking out weak hands and fund managers drawing down their gold allocation to meet margin calls and stuff. In a liquidity crisis, everything goes down. There will be a gold run in 6 months time, maybe even less, but there is usually a little lag.
     
  3. xaldub

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 18 Feb 2007

    Posts: 1,077

    Notice how the DJI plummets when Trump opens his mouth. His latest conference is literally causing panic.
     
  4. Simon

    Capodecina

    Joined: 21 Oct 2002

    Posts: 24,305

    Location: Berks / Moscow

    .

    I didn’t see the government bailing out BP in 2011.

    Sure the smaller ones will struggle but that isn’t the two you said. And BP weren’t struggling on 2019. They just had a reorg or two.
     
  5. Psycho Sonny

    Caporegime

    Joined: 21 Jun 2006

    Posts: 37,821

    With the oil leak?

    That didn't effect the industry just them. When it effects them all is when you see the government get away with all sorts. I can't go into specifics but the guard is slowly changing we are being tougher on them but I imagine if push came to shove they would get what they needed to survive.
     
  6. Simon

    Capodecina

    Joined: 21 Oct 2002

    Posts: 24,305

    Location: Berks / Moscow

    What exactly do you do then ?
     
  7. Fusion

    Capodecina

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 10,623

    Location: Notts

    Station attendant :D
     
  8. Jokester

    Don

    Joined: 7 Aug 2003

    Posts: 42,303

    Location: Aberdeenshire

    I don’t remember oil companies making huge numbers redundant last year.

    But oil companies will go bust over this (Premier Oil is teetering on the edge apparently).

    The only good news is the UK industry went through a painful round of cost cutting after 2015 such that average costs are now about $20 a barrel, but with new projects generally costed on $40-$60 a barrel it will be grim for the foreseeable.
     
  9. regulus

    Sgarrista

    Joined: 18 Aug 2006

    Posts: 9,905

    Location: Wellington, NZ

    Agreed. It was all a good laugh the past 3-4 years when he was winding up the lefties and everyone virtue signalling for their 'likes' and 'followers' and attention and stuff, but now he's causing real damage. Not imaginary damage as spouted by bubblegum fake media the past 4 years for their clicks, but actual economic damage. He needs to disappear under a rock and let an adult step in to handle this.
     
  10. Rexxar

    Wise Guy

    Joined: 13 May 2010

    Posts: 1,498

    I've never bought shares, Curious about it all and would like to own a few at some point, but in reality but probably never will just because of the risk involved. I'd rather save and buy a house...

    I think people's reasoning for wanting to dive into the markets now is due to the changes around the world markets ... But as most have sensibly said, still huge risks if you don't have the money to burn.
     
  11. Dave

    Mobster

    Joined: 30 Oct 2004

    Posts: 4,947

    Location: Sacramento, CA, USA

    Indeed, all ongoing projects now are being tested down even lower (to $10-20/bbl) to high grade capital spend too.

    Comments on BP/Shell taking government bailouts I think are nonsense, Shell possibly has more capital issues because of their Brazil commitments but BP restructured a couple of years ago (and already in the process of restructuring once more from the new CEO) and has a pretty strong balance sheet. I'd be worried for PMO/ENQ etc.
     
  12. silversurfer

    Capodecina

    Joined: 13 Jul 2004

    Posts: 19,416

    Location: Stanley Hotel, Colorado

    Thought Shell was in a better place, I wanted a bias to them as they operate more gas which I think is good long term. It'd make sense if BP having already royally dropped an anvil on their foot previously are 'ok' now every part of the industry is off balance.
    This isnt unprecedented, we had this previously from OPEC where they saturate supply as a tactic and I wish a smart commentator had reminded me of the possibility. PMO hedged enough to pay the bills apparently, maybe the point is for how long and the speculation is the hedge expires too soon.

    BP isnt british, a few years back they could be labelled quite significantly Russian based as they made so much money there. I didnt follow the asset sale and Rosneft thing but in any case this is either a global or operation majority based in another country. The whole concept of bailout is off anyway, Rolls Royce getting nationalised in some way made sense decades back but neither of these companies qualifies even close. Sadly UK is not big in oil or gas, if we were really clever on fracking but people are too wary.
    I'm not anti green projects but its just not done in a clever way, efficiency is essential. The Seven has the largest tidal range in the world, daily such giant amounts of energy flowing our fingers unused while we import and ask why our currency is falling.
    Its our national asset in that way and are we using it for power ? no, investment wise we are so dull imo. This is best plan forward, the rest is a lead balloon going to hit us on the head later :p


    Your cash is on a slow burn so there is no way to save it properly, hence why house prices are so high in the first place.
    Dont buy shares, buy unit trusts which in turn own the shares. Its far more liquid, safer, isolated from the banks assets themselves and the costs are far lower for the person in the street. It also gets you away from this emotional panic effect which drives people away from cheap high yielding assets into the horribly politically compromised cash you mention.
    Read or discuss that direction with someone, five year plan now is a good time to take interest same as the first post on this thread was great placement on the chart.
    I do want to rebuy JII this month, it is risky for sure. I should probably aim to buy this monthly. Also IGG on +30% revenue etc https://finance.yahoo.com/news/virus-revives-beaten-down-cfd-100716207.html

     
    Last edited: 21 Mar 2020
  13. Simon

    Capodecina

    Joined: 21 Oct 2002

    Posts: 24,305

    Location: Berks / Moscow

    BP own 19.75% of Rosneft. Not sure this makes them Russian, it hasn’t been making as much as you’d think. I think 2018 actually made a loss from memory.
     
  14. Minusorange

    Sgarrista

    Joined: 25 Nov 2005

    Posts: 7,779

    Watching Cuomo saying it's going to be maybe 9 months for New York I imagine tomorrow will be another blood bath ?

     
  15. Journey

    Capodecina

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 10,138

    Location: West Midlands

    Stock market indexes are going to be at least 50% down on the highs, the impact that a pandemic can have is literally untested. Governments can only prop up businesses for so long before they'd need to let them go.
     
  16. Bes

    Soldato

    Joined: 18 Oct 2002

    Posts: 7,318

    Location: Melbourne

    Judging by the commentary coming out of the US, I can see absolute carnage on the markets again tomorrow

    We shall see...
     
  17. silversurfer

    Capodecina

    Joined: 13 Jul 2004

    Posts: 19,416

    Location: Stanley Hotel, Colorado

    Out of hours sentiment is not always accurate, some of it reflects other markets like Japan so its over 12 hours away but I'd guess FTSE open lower. SP500 and Brent crude show as down 5%

    More activity online is good news for some https://us.cnn.com/videos/business/...x.cnn/video/playlists/stories-worth-watching/

    Yea its a complicated situation. My take is the gains if any are lumpy and asset related. They did a deal to be involved and an accepted player, like they do anywhere Iraq or any country with various details and troubles.
    BP is also the main seller to USA military I think so they have a large contrast. Everything is high risk now seems to me so Im not put off by Russia exactly but still my aim for lots of years has been just to trade it, the OPEC tricks and tactics is another reason why that seems best also.

    So BP and a gold miner is Russia shares I have and theres POLY and others. Energy imports is a requirement not an option for China, both countries have a policy towards gold retention or backing to their trade. If Russia has no fear of volatility its probably related to that policy
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2017/08/05/the-worlds-5-biggest-gold-exportersimporters.aspx
     
    Last edited: 22 Mar 2020
  18. Simon

    Capodecina

    Joined: 21 Oct 2002

    Posts: 24,305

    Location: Berks / Moscow

    Dow opened at 18100 and hit the 7% stop
     
  19. StriderX

    Caporegime

    Joined: 18 Mar 2008

    Posts: 28,131

    Honestly the time they're taking on this Senate bill is a disgrace to the average American trying to survive, they've been practically abandoned, it doesn't matter which side is doing it, they're both at fault. I'm thankful that although I may not like the UK government for various reasons, they acted swiftly on giving people a safety net.
     
    Last edited: 22 Mar 2020
  20. regulus

    Sgarrista

    Joined: 18 Aug 2006

    Posts: 9,905

    Location: Wellington, NZ

    This market is going to start testing my usual amount of good humor ..