AMD Navi 23 ‘NVIDIA Killer’ GPU Rumored to Support Hardware Ray Tracing, Coming Next Year

[aoaaron]

I don't know where JayzTwoCents got the October 7th rumor from and I've been following these leaks pretty closely. It must have been a date given to him by his AMD contact that he was allowed to share to spark interest.

There is no reason to think Igor's leak of no AIB cards is false as he has really been accurate from what I can tell in the past. I think AMD did have the AIB cards planned for October but Covid probably messed that up and the only thing they could rely on was their own production. I also think AMD got annoyed that their XT launch was just forgotten about after 2 days and they don't want that to happen again.

Based on everything said so far this is how I see it going that maximizes AMD's coverage:

In a week or so we have a tweet from AMD saying "something big is coming" to hold people off buying 3000 series. Live stream announcement on October 7th by Lisa talking about Zen 3 and RDNA 2. Since Igor again stated Zen 3 mass production is happening now we can expect Lisa to say a Zen 3 launch on October 21st. I then expect November 7th for a proper RDNA 2 launch. The RDNA 2 launch in November gets them another 2-3 weeks of reviews and benchmark coverage. In total a good 6 weeks of constant news coverage and videos. Not too shabby. This still fulfills the promise that we would see RDNA 2 GPUs before the consoles and conveniently late November will be the console launch. If AMD play it well they can have themselves constantly in every news site for 2 straight months.

I get that mass production might still be a bit behind, but why do they have to hold their live stream or announcement so late? Why not move it forwards and present us with the facts re: performance of their cards and pricing?

Its a confusing time. NVIDIA's competitive pricing points towards AMD might have something competitive. But AMD's silence on the matter makes it seem as if they'll likely take beating the 3070 at a marginally cheaper price point as a resounding victory (which I thinkf or most high end users will not be enough.

 

[Chuk_Chuk]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1302611603704045568

***speculation/tin foil hat***
Lets take this tweet as fact.
What if Nvidia released the 3080 and 3070 just to get something out the door and to be first, but they know it is not enough to compete in the long term (cost wise). so they intentinally skimped on the RAM to stock pile the chips for the release of the cards using GA103.

There is no bad product - only bad pricing.
If the Navi 21 offers 90% of the GA102 performance for 35-40% of the price (549$ vs 1499.99$), then guess which one will sell like hot cakes

the one with the Nvidia logo written on it

I also think AMD got annoyed that their XT launch was just forgotten about after 2 days and they don't want that to happen again.
.

I can't see AMD getting annoyed at that. It was an EOL speed bump, with everyone knowing that Zen 3 is right round the corner. There was no way it was going to be interesting to people.

 

[Poneros]

***speculation/tin foil hat***
Lets take this tweet as fact.
What if Nvidia released the 3080 and 3070 just to get something out the door and to be first, but they know it is not enough to compete in the long term (cost wise). so they intentinally skimped on the RAM to stock pile the chips for the release of the cards using GA103.



the one with the Nvidia logo written on it



I can't see AMD getting annoyed at that. It was an EOL speed bump, with everyone knowing that Zen 3 is right round the corner. There was no way it was going to be interesting to people.

Slots right in too

Spoiler

 

[Chuk_Chuk]

I get that mass production might still be a bit behind, but why do they have to hold their live stream or announcement so late? Why not move it forwards and present us with the facts re: performance of their cards and pricing?

Its a confusing time. NVIDIA's competitive pricing points towards AMD might have something competitive. But AMD's silence on the matter makes it seem as if they'll likely take beating the 3070 at a marginally cheaper price point as a resounding victory (which I thinkf or most high end users will not be enough.

Becaused the hype around Nvidia will just drown out their launch?
Because they have a marketing strategy that revolves around the consoles and the nearby holidays?
Because they anticipated this and have decided it is not a big deal like everyone else is making it sound?

 

[aoaaron]

Becaused the hype around Nvidia will just drown out their launch?
Because they have a marketing strategy that revolves around the consoles and the nearby holidays?
Because they anticipated this and have decided it is not a big deal like everyone else is making it sound?

It won't though. If AMD release cards which are better than NVIDIAs for a better price, it will do the opposite. It will water down NVIDIA's launch and people will buy AMD cards rather than NVIDIA cards.

Your second point is the scarey point in the back of my mind. Do AMD really care about PC gaming anymore? Or are they all about console gaming now and their marketting stategy is leaning towards that?

If they are committed to PC GPUs, then their only competitior in the PC GPU headspace releasing headline performance which sets the precedent for the next 12 months IS a big deal and it IS a big deal for nearly every single user who wants more than a little bit more performance. We have a generation fo people sitting on 1080tis who are looking for their next big upgrade path and its been years for them that they've had a value proposition as good as this gen is illustrating.


None of your excuses for AMD not releasing information or responding properly are convincing IMO. I feel as if its going to be another classic arrive very late and release a product with less features and similar performance for 10-20% less with no competitive high end card. I hope I'm wrong.

 

[GregI]

@aoaaron You need to remember that people like us make up such a low number in the grand scheme that AMD are trying to market for. Most people buying graphics cards don't even know AMD exists so it's a bad move to launch along with Nvidia and be drowned out more than they already are. Most people buying these graphics cards don't even know what a BIOS is and likely don't even run RAM at XMP.

 

[Chuk_Chuk]

It won't though. If AMD release cards which are better than NVIDIAs for a better price, it will do the opposite. It will water down NVIDIA's launch and people will buy AMD cards rather than NVIDIA cards.

Your second point is the scarey point in the back of my mind. Do AMD really care about PC gaming anymore? Or are they all about console gaming now and their marketting stategy is leaning towards that?

If they are committed to PC GPUs, then their only competitior in the PC GPU headspace releasing headline performance which sets the precedent for the next 12 months IS a big deal and it IS a big deal for nearly every single user who wants more than a little bit more performance. We have a generation fo people sitting on 1080tis who are looking for their next big upgrade path and its been years for them that they've had a value proposition as good as this gen is illustrating.


None of your excuses for AMD not releasing information or responding properly are convincing IMO. I feel as if its going to be another classic arrive very late and release a product with less features and similar performance for 10-20% less with no competitive high end card. I hope I'm wrong.

Lets say this is a return to form for AMD with RDNA 2. They don't want to share the stage with Nvidia, they want all eyes and ears to be looking at them. What would happen in you scenario is you end up with divided attention, because then people will start talking about other thing, RTX IO, DLSS, RTX games, power consumption, AIB cards etc.

And you know that Nvidia wouldn't just take such an announcement sitting down, they would be out in force to ensure that their launch is ruined. Nothing stops them from doing this later, but at least they will be mostly out of the news cycle by then.

AMD has said they wanted a show of force with this release. It may simply be that they want to have a situation where their name is everywhere.
Week 1 - AMD CPUs
Week 2 - AMD GPUs
Week 3 - XSX powered by AMD
Week 4 - PS5 powered by AMD

A 4 week period were their name is everywhere.

It could also help with the console marketing strategy. Buy a console with the latest/fastest desktop GPU for a fraction of the price (or something similar).


Edit: They may have deals or arranging deals with pre-built PC manufacturers so people can buy a new gaming PC with the latest CPU and GPU from AMD.

 

[thenewoc]

Less counterproductive than having everyone jump straight on 3080s on release day, which is what is going to happen if AMD dont give us some tangible information?

I don't think everyone will. Even hardened NV followers may wait to see what the AMD launch spawns from NV with regards to the Supers/Ti's. Even if someone pre orders on the 17th it may be some time after that before cards actually ship, even after they've been received people could return them within the two week distance selling grace period. Ideally AMD want to time their release to after the pre-order but before those pre orders are fulfilled as it gives NV less time to react with anything other than changes to a Super/Ti line up. I think if there's a NV shortage it's probably because NV aren't too confident and want to see the AMD line up before over committing to production volumes. The real release is really the Super/Ti cards, this is just NV's aperitif to get the ball rolling.

 

[pagepack]

AMD know exactly how there new cards perform against their and Nvidia's current line up. If its good, they'd be idiots not to spoil Nvidia's launch with a paper launch of their own.

 

[gpuerrilla]

I don't think everyone will. Even hardened NV followers may wait to see what the AMD launch spawns from NV with regards to the Supers/Ti's. Even if someone pre orders on the 17th it may be some time after that before cards actually ship, even after they've been received people could return them within the two week distance selling grace period. Ideally AMD want to time their release to after the pre-order but before those pre orders are fulfilled as it gives NV less time to react with anything other than changes to a Super/Ti line up. I think if there's a NV shortage it's probably because NV aren't too confident and want to see the AMD line up before over committing to production volumes. The real release is really the Super/Ti cards, this is just NV's aperitif to get the ball rolling.

I think this is tosh. Anyone who has pre-ordered or got a chubber from the announcement are people that have no intention of ever buying an AMD card.

 

[Howling]

None of your excuses for AMD not releasing information or responding properly are convincing IMO. I feel as if its going to be another classic arrive very late and release a product with less features and similar performance for 10-20% less with no competitive high end card. I hope I'm wrong.

Alternatively; AMD don't operate according to aoaaron-approved timescales... and frankly I don't think they need to. GPU sales are *reasonably* constant throughout the year, with some predictable ebbs and flows - Gibbo can likely attest to this - not everyone buys a new GPU the first week of release

 

[thenewoc]

I think this is tosh. Anyone who has pre-ordered or got a chubber from the announcement are people that have no intention of ever buying an AMD card.

They're probably only going to pre order though if they couldn't stretch to a Super/Ti if they waited. So what if the Navi 21 has better performance than a 3080 and it has 16GB of VRAM for £600, will they still stick with a 3080 with 10GB?

 

[gpuerrilla]

They're probably only going to pre order though if they couldn't stretch to a Super/Ti if they waited. So what if the Navi 21 has better performance than a 3080 and it has 16GB of VRAM for £600, will they still stick with a 3080 with 10GB?

Yes.

If you have been painfully reading the GPU forum for past few months, you will have seen the holier-than-though boys larping about with blaming AMD for nvidia's high prices, only to dissect the narrative to find they wouldnt buy AMD cards anyway - thus they only want AMD to be about to make their nvidia cards cheaper for THEM..

 

[aoaaron]

Lets say this is a return to form for AMD with RDNA 2. They don't want to share the stage with Nvidia, they want all eyes and ears to be looking at them. What would happen in you scenario is you end up with divided attention, because then people will start talking about other thing, RTX IO, DLSS, RTX games, power consumption, AIB cards etc.

And you know that Nvidia wouldn't just take such an announcement sitting down, they would be out in force to ensure that their launch is ruined. Nothing stops them from doing this later, but at least they will be mostly out of the news cycle by then.

AMD has said they wanted a show of force with this release. It may simply be that they want to have a situation where their name is everywhere.
Week 1 - AMD CPUs
Week 2 - AMD GPUs
Week 3 - XSX powered by AMD
Week 4 - PS5 powered by AMD

A 4 week period were their name is everywhere.

It could also help with the console marketing strategy. Buy a console with the latest/fastest desktop GPU for a fraction of the price (or something similar).


Edit: They may have deals or arranging deals with pre-built PC manufacturers so people can buy a new gaming PC with the latest CPU and GPU from AMD.

That makes a bit more sense. AMD are going for mainstream adoption and trying to re-badge what a PC is to mainstream consumers.

I think your notion that AMD now have the power to bundle consoles and GPUs a bit too far. I don't think its in Sony or MS's best interest to leverage their consoles popularity by providing users with an entry point into PC gaming (which could mean losing them forever).

If what you're saying is true, and AMD are going for mainstream adoption, I can't help but feel there is then a snowballs chance in hell they will match the 3080 because by the sounds of this strategy, they don't care about us (the enthusiasts) much.

 

[Zeed]

AMD know exactly how there new cards perform against their and Nvidia's current line up. If its good, they'd be idiots not to spoil Nvidia's launch with a paper launch of their own.

Indeed. With that strategy they wont GAIN new customers they GOT CHANCE of maintainging leftovers they got. LEts Say someone is sitting on Fury X or 1070 Hello new GPU in september thats the performance jump/price he was waiting for
This strategy is guarantee they wont win any NV buyers over.

Then again they got consoles. Amazed they still trying to get some cash on gpu market

 

[aoaaron]

Alternatively; AMD don't operate according to aoaaron-approved timescales... and frankly I don't think they need to. GPU sales are *reasonably* constant throughout the year, with some predictable ebbs and flows - Gibbo can likely attest to this - not everyone buys a new GPU the first week of release

I still think it points towards that they don't have a 3080-level card which matches its features sadly.

 

[Dontrocktheboat]

I still think it points towards that they don't have a 3080-level card which matches its features sadly.

Exactly.

AMD probably has a gfx that can beat 3070rtx and can get close to 3080.

But they cant touch 3080rtx with raytracing. It was same with tesselation, when that came out. AMD was rubbish at it, nvidia nailed it.

Big navi sadly wont be coming close to 3080rtx with its RRP of £649.

Cheapest 5700XT is currently £380 on this site!!!

If ppl think big navi will be double the size core, add its first iteration of raytracing, and it going to sell for £599 with 16GB, and beat 3080rtx they are living in a a pipe dream.

AMD time is ticking....tick tock 11 days left to prove me wrong. Bring out your NAVI timetable out.

 

[Scougar]

All that seems apparent now is, AMD have a potential significant problem on their hands. RDNA2 cards jad best deliver. Unless their is dedicated hardware for ray tracing or somehow the architecture lends itself naturally to ray tracing performance, AMD are looking to be at serious disadvantage in RT games.

Unless of course RTX components aren't used for dx12 RT implementations? Who has info on that please?

I will wait for the release of AMD cards, even though Nvidia seem in a very strong position right now.

Impressed at their unconventional cooling solution as well. I am guessing AMD will go the conventional route, but if short designs could still blow air through.

 

[pugheaven]

Well, with console coming, AMD will be in the news full stop so why not dominate, let nVidia have their 2 weeks, then AMD comes in with Big Navi, two killer consoles and is now dominating the home user cpu market as well, sounds like a solid strategy to me... I don't believe AMD are losing customers by making them wait 2 more weeks for example... if someone wants a nvidia, they're goign to buy an nvidia, simple as that. I get that and good luck to them. I personally like a lot of sane people, will just sit back, love the drama and hype and see what the benchmarks versus the pricing takes... then make a decision, it might be that I just stick with this 5700XT as it does everything I need... for now.

The problem I have is, I water cool, and it's a ball ache to change cards rofl... that founders edition nVidia is gorgeous, have to admit, but for me pointless as it'll be taken apart day 1 lol, so although that might be a great card for me, I don't care what it looks like, it's a pity they never offered barebones PCB editions where you don't pay for all the crap I don't want, I want a card that runs fast and cheap, take all that cooling off please for people who water cool. never gonna happen but for me, what a card looks or cools like, I really actually don't care?

Tell ya what though, ebay is mental isn't it right now, never in my life seen so many nVidia cards on sale YEt barely any AMD... it's like AMD owners are kinda staying as AMD owners and sitting back? Seeing what happens, where'as the nVidia crew are selling to go nVidia again... that's what it looks like anyway... I don't see millions of 5600/5700/570XT's on sale at all...

 

[Lokken86]

But they cant touch 3080rtx with raytracing.

Source?