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ARCHIVE - *** NVIDIA GEFORCE RTX 3080 SERIES STOCK SITUATION *** - NO COMPETITOR DISCUSSION

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I still dont see how im 206 in queue on a TUF OC ordered lunch day 15:25 and I can only count (out of the 1000s of samples) 17 people ahead of me.

Because that is just absed on 1000 peoples orders.

So if 17 people have ordered your make of card before you out of 1000 orders but there was really 10000 orders then the app extrapuliates that there would b 8 x 17 ahead of you in the queue.

It does assume that the missing information with the orders that the spread of card make purchases are the same over the same period when in reality it wont be.

Orders for certain makes of cards my have got more popular or less as people caught up with reviews or the price changed.

Hence why as more and more people enter their data, people see their queue number increase or decrease as its adjusted.

If suddenly 20 people entered your make of card with earlier order numbers than you then you would go down the list a lot.

Its only an approximation and the more info inputted the more accurate it will get.
 
I still dont see how im 206 in queue on a TUF OC ordered lunch day 15:25 and I can only count (out of the 1000s of samples) 17 people ahead of me.

The calculator is now using a data set of 2100 people who have submitted their details, and (presumably) working on a basis of about 13k orders on the first day. All it does is
((yourOrderNumber - 5860140) / knownBuyers) * cardTypePercentage, or basically multiplying that 17 by whatever it needs to scale it to it's estimated orders.

Now, based on the numbers you have there and backwards working the maths I think it is using closer to 25000 for the total orders now, which I think would overestimate for you, especially since the TUF OC orders started slower than the average but then picked up more as the good reviews came out (see the per card graphs built from the spreadsheet), so I'd guesstimate you at more like the 130 region (mainly by just looking at the graph's estimate for orders at time), rather than 200.
 
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Guys I'm not superstitious but I take pictures of cars for a living and this just came in this morning.

I am a little stitious, it's definitely a sign :D
 
The calculator is now using a data set of 2100 people who have submitted their details, and (presumably) working on a basis of about 13k orders on the first day. All it does is
((yourOrderNumber - 5860140) / knownBuyers) * cardTypePercentage, or basically multiplying that 17 by whatever it needs to scale it to it's estimated orders.

Now, based on the numbers you have there and backwards working the maths I think it is using closer to 25000 for the total orders now, which I think would overestimate for you, especially since the TUF OC orders started slower than the average but then picked up more as the good reviews came out (see the per card graphs built from the spreadsheet), so I'd guesstimate you at more like the 130 region (mainly by just looking at the graph's estimate for orders at time), rather than 200.

I dont think the order rate was linear - especially in the early few hours due to site locks ups - I think the begining was slower than we might imagine. So Im hoping im more 50-100.
 
This is what I don't understand. How can companies not know how much stock is coming in, it just seems so 19th century! Surely Asus or whomever can tell each retailer how many cards they're getting per week? How is it so difficult?!
What they’ve ordered and what gets delivered will likely be very different.
 
This is what I don't understand. How can companies not know how much stock is coming in, it just seems so 19th century! Surely Asus or whomever can tell each retailer how many cards they're getting per week? How is it so difficult?!
Beause the manufacturers are dealing with their own demons and getting stuff sorted.
 
All it does is
((yourOrderNumber - 5860140) / knownBuyers) * cardTypePercentage

I keep seeing this formula being copy pasted and a bit confused on why you're dividing by "knownBuyers". All it should be is (YourOrderNumber - StartingOrderNumber)*CardTypePercentage, where the percentage is written as a decimal (i.e. 10% would be 0.1).
 
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