Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Interesting take on the threat of nuclear:


Personally disagree on the take on rational, agree that he isn't insane as in the bat **** and just wants to nuke everything kind of way.

If he is acting to a rational, either his rationale is severely altered and not really rational or his rationale is part of a bigger picture we aren't seeing and that is worrying.

I agree somewhat with the take in that the West can probably push back more without risking a nuclear consequences but I don't think he will stop short of trying to use them should the situation go down that path enough.

And an observation in the comments:

ToddC8520 said:
While I would agree with the facts you present, and the conclusion that Putin is “acting rationally” within the context of those facts - lots of that is based on the assumption that Putin is believing his own propaganda, and if that is true how rational is he really?
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Russia to permit software piracy at 1 hour 34 mins. or click here to get to it https://youtu.be/haYaeNNwNOk?t=5640



Rogue Nation Cyber Consequences - Russia vs. Ukraine, Crypto, StarLink, Namecheap, Telegram

• Picture of the Week. • The Russians are coming. • Ukrainian “Cyber Unit Technologies” is paying for attacks on Russia. • StarLink in Ukraine. • Russia blocks access to Facebook, Twitter, foreign news outlets. • Google has become proactive. • Namecheap says "no more". • Telegram's use explodes. • Microsoft also shuts down in Russia. • Coinbase. • Russia releases the IP addresses and Domains of DDoS attacks. • Russia to permit software piracy. • Will Russia Disconnect?.

https://www.grc.com/sn/SN-861-Notes.pdf

Russia to permit software piracy

Meanwhile, Russian authorities are drafting a set of measures to support the country's economy
against the pressure of foreign sanctions, and as part of this, the proposal would eliminate
intellectual property right limitations, thus permitting piracy.
The plan is to establish a “unilateral” software licensing mechanism that would renew expired
licenses without requiring the consent of the copyright or patent owner. This new process will be
available in cases where the copyright holder is from a country that has supported sanctions
against Russia for products without Russian alternatives — which are many. This move is
Russia's response to numerous software vendors exiting the Russian market and suspending new
license sales including Microsoft, Cisco, Oracle, NVIDIA, IBM, Intel, and AMD.
The original Article 1360 of the Civil Code of the Russian Federation says that: “In the interests
of national security the Government of the Russian Federation shall have the right to permit the
use of an invention, utility model, or industrial design without the consent of the patent holder
provided that he is notified as soon as possible and payment to him a reasonable remuneration.”
How, however, in multiple proposed amendments to the Russian Civil Code, the Russian Ministry
of Digital Transformation wants to bypass compensation to license holders who are under
sanction restrictions so that they can continue using the software.
Security Now! #861 15Translated proposed amendments read: “Amending Article 1360 of the Civil Code of the Russian
Federation regarding the use of a license and other types of rights and the abolition of
compensation to foreign companies originating from states that have acceded to the sanctions
Federal Law.”
Of course, software products that rely on cloud services or online verification, as so many do
now, will stop working since no unilateral change in Russia's international intellectual property
treaties will keep online services from being shut down. But this does feel as though Russia will
be entering a dark age. Who would want to sell to such a rogue nation even if sanctions were
not in place?


Will Russia Disconnect?

Are we about to see Russia flip the switch?
Although Roskomnadzor has been working overtime to censor information by blocking its
citizens' access to Western media, services such as Telegram have withstood all previous
blocking attempts, and YouTube remains the #1 most popular service in all of Russia. Google is
refusing to comply with Roskomnadzor's censorship demands while simultaneously blocking
Russia's own state-sponsored propaganda. So it may be that nothing short of disconnecting all of
Russia from the rest of the Internet will be the only workable solution.
I've previously talked about the RU.net, Russia's sovereign Internet, which has been in
development for years and was successfully tested for actual deployment with the collaboration
of all large internet providers in the country last summer. Remember when we discussed the
need for and their establishment of any entirely autonomous DNS system.
Well, this past Sunday afternoon, a letter allegedly leaked from the Deputy Minister of Digital
Marketing and Mass Communications of the Russian Federation was posted by Anonymous on
Twitter. Since it's written in Russian, of course, I cannot read what it says. But Anonymous
claims that it provides instructions to all organizations about how to prepare for connection to
the runet and disconnection from the Internet:
“Russia is preparing to disconnect from the global internet, limiting access to information for the
Russian people. That means censorship, and we are totally against censorship of any kind. So...
let's turn up the pressure!” https://twitter.com/LatestAnonPress/status/1500589900193832966
— Anonymous (@LatestAnonPress) March 6, 2022
It would seem to me that “turning up the pressure” would only hasten the pulling of the plug.
Russia doesn't have, and must import, Western technology. They cannot duplicate our
semiconductors. But, unfortunately, they may have reason to count on China as a strategic
partner. China really is the wildcard in much of this. But China is not the West and cannot
replace much of what only Europe, the US and others provide. We live in interesting times.
 
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Not really sure how it would work or how it would be any different, maybe with emphasis of the humanitarian aspect, but talk of movement towards a no fly zone over parts of western Ukraine to protect refugee movement (and resupplies).
 
Mr Jack said:
The guy sits like a wally at the end of a 6 metre table to avoid Covid; I don't believe he wakes up in the morning and screams "today is a good day to die" at the mirror. But even if he does the idea of a "red button" isn't reality: neither Putin, nor Biden, nor Johnson, nor Macron, can hit a button and end the world. There is a chain, and everyone down the chain has to shrug their shoulders and go "oh well, I guess humanity had a good ol' knock, time to get the marshmallows and watch the end of the world. Sorry mum" in order to actually start a full scale nuclear war in cold blood.

It is conceivable (although I believe still highly unlikely) Putin would launch "tactical" nukes at Ukraine, but launching against NATO countries, and especially the US, the UK, and France, is a whole different matter.



I don't know whether I'm right and wrong, and I am thankful I don't have to make a meaningful choice on this.
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Yes there is a chain of command.

But as in every military in the entire world, if your boss says jump, you say how high sir.

It is indoctrinated from the very first second of your first day of basic training, you do exactly what your superior tells you, no questioning it, no second guessing, just follow orders.

I would imagine as well that in a Russian chain of command, you ignore your direct superiors order, in time of out and out war, you would get shot, and the next guy would be given the same order, with the same result if he does not comply, and so on, untill the order is carried out.
 
*UK Defence Intelligence: Russian Forces Failing To Make Any Significant Breakthroughs In Fighting North Of Kyiv - RTRS

*Russian Defence Ministry: Obtained Documents That Prove Ukraine Planned An Attack Against Donbass In March - RTRS

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https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status/1501438467103989762
https://twitter.com/IGSquawk/status/1501440730832977921
 
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Trump has some big brained ideas about helping Ukraine with a false flag operation in which American fighters are disguised as Chinese bombers by *checks notes* slapping a Chinese flag on them, despite (a) being instantly recognisable as American fighters, and (b) incapable of bombing. Yes, he really is that stupid.

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