Rroff, people keep pointing out to you, that what Russia have deployed so far has already been very representative of their standard line units make up (Conscript:Contract), they arnt specifically holding back contracted(Professional) super soldiers.
Same goes for equipment, the reason you see more of the older stuff is because they have more of the older stuff, it was proven at the start that there were still large numbers of newer equipment fielded. However because the ratio of new to old, you see photos/videos of the older kit a lot more. They arnt specifically holding the kit back they have again deployed a representative amount so far.
As woppy101 stated, this is necessary as if they stacked all the best kit and forces in one place they would have been left very vulnerable on other fronts.
Putin has so far "tried" to fight this war without compromising to heavily other conflicts/operations/deployments or its security of its regions/borders etc. Have to remember that Russia still have active military operations elsewhere in the world.
What I did say was they fleshed out the [initial] invasion force significantly from essentially conscript, mercenary/militia, Chechens, etc. to minimise the amount they depleted from the regular forces, likewise with equipment having spent the last few years reactivating mothballed stock rather than dipping into their main reserves (though it has since come to light their reserves have been raided through corrupt money making in the side and to source parts to reactivate the even older stock). This is why stuff like BMPTs, T-72 models which only exist in their reserve stock, etc. are only appearing now and the stuff which appeared in the early days was around 60/40 split of old model T-80s and 72s vs regular active model T-80Us, T-72B3s, etc. and likewise with the aircraft, artillery and so on.
I don't think you're correct though. Under Russian law, sending conscripts into the "special military operation" was illegal, now there's no surprise that these rules weren't entirely followed but it seems fairly likely that the rules did mean that the forces sent contained a lower proportion of conscripts than the regular army. The replacements, meanwhile, are increasingly losing many of their most experienced soldiers since because Russia isn't at war, soldiers can quit their positions and go home. I think it is highly unlikely that the troops that are being deployed now are better than the forces they are replacing.
The only area where they are likely to have thrown significantly under-equipped and trained forces (compared to the main Russian forces) forward are those conscripted from the Luhansk and Donbas "Republics". I haven't seen good figures on how many of these there were, or on whether more forces are still being recruited.
On the other hand, forces being sent forward now will at least know what they are going to be doing and can thus properly prepare rather than thinking they are going on exercise, or on a peacekeeping mission.
I've been following the build up of equipment and man power, especially in the last 2 years, in detail. People, even the MOD, seem to have quickly forgotten many of the reports from the weeks leading up to the invasion and the early days.
Same goes for equipment, the reason you see more of the older stuff is because they have more of the older stuff, it was proven at the start that there were still large numbers of newer equipment fielded. However because the ratio of new to old, you see photos/videos of the older kit a lot more. They arnt specifically holding the kit back they have again deployed a representative amount so far.
The point I've been making in this respect is that initially Russia was using a lot of reactivated mothballed stock and newer stock at a roughly 60/40 ratio, avoiding where they could have using their maintained reserve stock - the invasion, initially, did not represent a depletion of their reserves and main active stock to the level many commentators have been talking. We've only recently seen T-72s taken from their reserve stock for instance. A lot of the T-80s lost for instance were pulled out of deep storage in recent years and not represented by the ~400-500 active, 3000 reserve numbers (and ironically put back into service using parts raided from their reserves).
I've been following the build up of equipment and man power, especially in the last 2 years, in detail. People, even the MOD, seem to have quickly forgotten many of the reports from the weeks leading up to the invasion and the early days.
Under Russian law, sending conscripts into the "special military operation" was illegal, now there's no surprise that these rules weren't entirely followed but it seems fairly likely that the rules did mean that the forces sent contained a lower proportion of conscripts than the regular army. The replacements, meanwhile, are increasingly losing many of their most experienced soldiers since because Russia isn't at war, soldiers can quit their positions and go home. I think it is highly unlikely that the troops that are being deployed now are better than the forces they are replacing.
Yup, they sent a load of their elite units as part of the initial invasion, you're right about conscripts, they can't (officially) be sent but some were, not as formed units per se but to make up the numbers in BTGs, various BTGs were under strength, some simply went ahead under strength and others made up the numbers by asking or rather more likely forcing/coercing conscripts to sign up to become (regular) contract soldiers. It seems to have varied a bit depending on the whim of the CO.
The invasion was regular Russian Army formations, conscripts have simply been used to make up the numbers, interestingly even the legal position for the regular "contract" soldiers is that they can resign/quit as war hasn't been declared. Other participants have been the locally recruited troops from the DPR and LPR, though they're supposed to be territorials (see recent videos of DPR forces protesting at being ordered to Luhansk), they have been added to via forced conscription.
There is also the Rosgvardia - Russia's national guard or internal troops, they're not supposed to be used for combat, they're lightly equipped paramilitary types but they were brought in for internal/rear security type tasks; in the north some of their convoys were smashed in ambushes, some had even brought dress uniforms for a victory parade.
The Chechens are officially part of the national guard too and so aren't used for combat operations, see them get ambushed in the North too, in the south they're seen near Mariupol, Kherson etc.. but at best just LARPing on TikTok videos not actually fighting.
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03-Jun-2022 06:55:05 - UK Military Intelligence: Measured Against Russia’s Original Plan, None of The Strategic Objectives Have Been Achieved
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03-Jun-2022 09:44:21 - Ukraine Defence Minister Calls On West to Develop Expedited Procedures to Speed Delivery of Military Aid; Says Delays of Days Cost Lives
03-Jun-2022 09:46:36 - Ukraine Defence Minister: Ukrainian Crews Have Started Training in Europe on U.S. High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems
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03-Jun-2022 10:22:37 - Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman: Heads of Moscow Offices of American Media Will Be Called To Ministry on June 6
03-Jun-2022 10:24:24 - Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman: Russia Will Explain to U.S. Media Outlets in Moscow the ‘Consequences of Hostile U.S Actions’ Towards Russian Media in U.S.
03-Jun-2022 10:44:35 - Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman: If Russia Media Can’t Work Normally in U.S, ‘the Most Stringent Measures Will Inevitably Follow’
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03-Jun-2022 11:00:00 - Kremlin: Topic of Ukrainian Grain Will Be High on Agenda When Russian Foreign Minister Visits Turkey Next Week
03-Jun-2022 11:00:00 - Kremlin: Agenda for Putin Meeting With African Union Today Will Include ‘Deep Concern of African Continent About Growing World Food Crisis, Lack of Fertilisers’
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03-Jun-2022 10:14:09 - Belarus Lukashenko: Belarus Is Ready to Discuss Possible Transit of Ukraine’s Grain via Belarus — TASS Cites Local Media
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03-Jun-2022 11:58:20 - Senior Turkish Official: Turkey Expects Progress on Ukraine Corridor Plan When Lavrov Visits Next Week
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03-Jun-2022 12:17:07 - Sweden’s Defence Minister: Hopes NATO Membership Process Will Go As Fast As Possible, Integration Will Not Be Problem
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03-Jun-2022 12:40:18 - ECB’s Enria: Hopes European Banks Will Be Able to Sell Their Russian Assets in the Short-Term
03-Jun-2022 08:58:10 - Slovak Economy Ministry: Expects Access to EU Resources to Help Mitigate Impact of Sanctions on Russian Crude Oil
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03-Jun-2022 10:54:00 - German Economy Ministry Spokesperson: Will Announce Support Package for Energy-Intensive Companies
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03-Jun-2022 13:45:20 - OMV CEO: Risks Of Russia Business Were Underestimated
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03-Jun-2022 15:19:51 - Swiss Office for Defence Procurement: Switzerland Will Hand Over Part of a First Delivery of Anti-Tank Weapons to Britain, Which It Had Ordered From Sweden’s Saab AB
03-Jun-2022 15:20:26 - Swiss Office for Defence Procurement: The Majority of the Systems Ordered Will Be Delivered to Switzerland by the Beginning of 2023 As Planned
Yup, they sent a load of their elite units as part of the initial invasion, you're right about conscripts, they can't (officially) be sent but some were, not as formed units per se but to make up the numbers in BTGs, various BTGs were under strength, some simply went ahead under strength and others made up the numbers by asking or rather more likely forcing/coercing conscripts to sign up to become (regular) contract soldiers. It seems to have varied a bit depending on the whim of the CO.
The invasion was regular Russian Army formations, conscripts have simply been used to make up the numbers, interestingly even the legal position for the regular "contract" soldiers is that they can resign/quit as war hasn't been declared. Other participants have been the locally recruited troops from the DPR and LPR, though they're supposed to be territorials (see recent videos of DPR forces protesting at being ordered to Luhansk), they have been added to via forced conscription.
There is also the Rosgvardia - Russia's national guard or internal troops, they're not supposed to be used for combat, they're lightly equipped paramilitary types but they were brought in for internal/rear security type tasks; in the north some of their convoys were smashed in ambushes, some had even brought dress uniforms for a victory parade.
The Chechens are officially part of the national guard too and so aren't used for combat operations, see them get ambushed in the North too, in the south they're seen near Mariupol, Kherson etc.. but at best just LARPing on TikTok videos not actually fighting.
Tons of conscripts and/or new recruits talked into signing contracts were used as part of the invasion forces - people seem to have quickly forgotten about all the camps in Belarus where 1000s were sent on "exercises" having only ~3 weeks training then sent into the war. With all the reports of worried parents posting on Russian social media and the accounts of how only 3-4 out of 100 were making it back home alive and uninjured.
While Putin was supposedly outraged about it I suspect it was an act.
They were if Ukraine hadnt been trained by the USA/UK in defence. 2014 UKR would have failed. Instead Russian doctrine fell over , so have reverted to type
I suspect that they would lose some of the goodwill of the US, severly limit further supply and be at the mercy of however Russia decide to respond... Other than sever escalation to tactical short range nuclear weapons I dont know what else Russia can really bring to bear though. I'd expect fighting to intensify at a very minimum though if they were to strike Russian cities.
Plausible deniability. The USA won't care what the Ukranians do, as long as they can say they were told they wouldn't be used in that way when they inevitably are. What is Russia going to do?
I'd say they were. They were just misused and sent into areas without proper air support or armour. Doesn't matter how good you are, you're going to get chewed up.
No you didn't, but most of your posts have been disingenuous so you probably know this. They aren't being supplied with the ultra long range missiles. Still longer range than anything else they have artillery wise. They won't be raining them down on Russian cities because it'll reduce support from the West, plus they have actual military targets to attack first. Also fairly sure most Russian cities would be outside their range. If they were in range imo any military targets in Russian cities should be completely fair game but they won't use these systems for that. If it gets to that point Russia have pretty much lost anyway.
Not that I wouldn't understand the impulse from a Ukrainian who's just lost family and seen their home/town/city reduced to rubble to seek revenge and pummel a Russian town but the Ukrainian leadership have been above that. Unlike the Russians who seem affronted by the notion while they lay waste to whole regions.
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