Soldato
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Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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Soldato
It turns out that the fat guy who's photo was posted yesterday is 100% real. The story is Russia has burnt through all of it's senior commanders and generals (either killed or fired for incompetence) so Putin has resorted to bringing back older generals out of retirement. The guy is known as Major General Pavel and is veteran of USSR's disastrous Afghanistan war, during he's retirement he's weight has ballooned to 20+ stone, he eats 5 meals day and washes it down with a bottle of Vodka. It comes as no surprise that his army camo is custom made and he needs to wear to two set of body armour to protect his ample frame (although I would have thought his fat alone would have been enough to absorb any bullets).
I would say Putin has scrapped the barrel but it looks like this guy got to it first.
I would say Putin has scrapped the barrel but it looks like this guy got to it first.
Soldato
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Russia decided to target a shopping centre in Kremenchuk
Soldato
^ Seen people can say it war but you can pick a target and a shopping centre definitely not one.
These are missiles which have been programmed it just genocide simple as.
These are missiles which have been programmed it just genocide simple as.
It feels like this whole thing has taken a horrid turn for the worse. A couple of months ago when this all started, Ukraine was doing really well, Russia were taking a beating and basically being humiliated.
However, it just feels like Russia will continue to throw meat into the grinder for however long it takes, a bit like a poor RTS player who's turned on cheats and is just spawning endless tier 1 units. Where most militaries would have pulled back, or done something else to save face - it feels like Russia just doesn't care about the human cost, it wants Ukraine for itself and it won't stop until it gets it, whatever the cost.
I just can't see it ending anytime soon, and exactly what the west does if this goes on for years, Ukraine eventually falls? do we get involved to stop it? or do we just turn Russia into North Korea?
Where do people see it going?
However, it just feels like Russia will continue to throw meat into the grinder for however long it takes, a bit like a poor RTS player who's turned on cheats and is just spawning endless tier 1 units. Where most militaries would have pulled back, or done something else to save face - it feels like Russia just doesn't care about the human cost, it wants Ukraine for itself and it won't stop until it gets it, whatever the cost.
I just can't see it ending anytime soon, and exactly what the west does if this goes on for years, Ukraine eventually falls? do we get involved to stop it? or do we just turn Russia into North Korea?
Where do people see it going?
Permabanned
I see it as a certainty that Russia will prevail, "Ukraine Fatigue" is already setting in in the West and once the European populations realise just how dependent on Russia they are and start to be seriously inconvenienced their allegiance will crumble. Like the US in Vietnam, their resolve will falter due to voters shying away from getting even more involved, especially if there's talk of conscription and EU and US boots on the ground.
NATO will be their usual fence sitting self, and unless the US sees a pressing demand to get properly involved herself, which with a senile President dithering about, and a soft bellied populace, is unlikely to happen, it will all be meetings and bluster. Ridicule Russia and her military's resolve at your peril. The Bear isn't backing down any time soon, and will probably unsheath her claws soon.
Russia is a totally none PC, ruthless and determined old school country, used to general hardship and her population will easily turn more and more against the supporters of Ukraine.
What started as an amusing potential rout of The Bear to many here is now being shown as the youthful, wargame playing, wishful thinking it is. Russia ain't gonna back down, she'll dig in deeper and use slow attrition to weaken the West's resolve and haemorrhage our military resources and money.
And if you think Ukraine will prostrate themselves in gratitude to the West for what they've already done, once their true long term situation becomes apparent, you are naively wrong. They'll blame us for not doing enough and join the Russians in decrying us. We are walking into a bad situation and weakening our military resources for our own use daily.
All in my humble opinion...
The Mariupol theatre bombing might have been as large or larger but since the Russians had the city fully besieged and have since captured it, they get to drive the narrative by destroying the bodies etc.
To totally flatten a 500,000 city while letting almost nobody leave; I doubt we'll ever get the true numbers killed but I wouldn't be surprised if it is 50,000. Over 90% of them Russian speakers who Russia claims to be there to protect too.
Caporegime
Ukraine has still done much better than Russia, and Russia has already failed in its principle aims and is paying a heavy international price for its actions. Russia is never going to beat Ukraine. However, the situation has shifted as Russia regroups and changes strategy. Ukraine's defender's advantage helped them stop the rapid advances, but this metre by metre grind doesn't give them the same advantages.
Hopes of a rapid end were always fanciful. Years of conflict was always the most likely outcome - most conflicts go that way - but things don't shift in Russia's favour as it grinds on. Little by little, Ukraine is getting better weapons with which to fight, while time will do nothing but harm to Russia's economy and war machine. The will of the West failing is the biggest risk for Ukraine but Western leaders have staked big on backing Ukraine and that even if that slackens a bit it won't be enough to let Russia claim a categoric win. The most likely outcome is that Ukraine and Russia eventually sign a deal conceding territory to Russia, but mostly of territory was de facto Russian before the current escalation. A categoric win for Ukraine will only come if there is internal collapse or unrest within Russia or if Putin goes and is replaced by someone sensible (unlikely).
Ukraine was actually not doing well early in the war, it's only been through the epic embarrassment of the Russian forces attempt on Kyiv and more generally the stupid pushing ahead of supply lines ability to resupply that makes it look like they did (they certainly exploited those failures well though). The South between Kherson and Berdyansk fell due to traitors and a lack of manpower/equipment, but the east has generally been mildly positive (excepting Luhansk but that's understandable considering the geography) for Ukraine in terms of holding ground in Donetsk and Kharkiv especially so with how close it is to Russia.
It was always an uneven fight in Russia's favour that only exterior influence could really mitigate. I hope we continue to escalate equipment and training to ensure Russia either capitulates or remains in a quagmire they can't afford.
It was always an uneven fight in Russia's favour that only exterior influence could really mitigate. I hope we continue to escalate equipment and training to ensure Russia either capitulates or remains in a quagmire they can't afford.
Soldato
Unfortunately, I think you could well be right...
They will run out of meat for the grinder soon if they don't switch to some form of mass mobilisation - though the likes of [formerly] Wagner are still managing to drag up new mercenaries by waving tempting salaries around (which an increasing number won't get to collect by the looks of things any way). If they switch gears mobilisation wise they can sustain this for a long time unless the civilian population kicks back which doesn't seem likely in any significant way.
They've been pulling a lot of tanks and stuff out of main reserves in the east recently and moving them towards the western military district so I suspect they'll be able to sustain the hardware side of things awhile yet - but you can't just drag someone off the street and stick them in a tank or anti-air vehicle, etc. (Looks likely they will have another crack at Kyiv but with heavier units this time at some point in the later half of this year or early next).
Sadly the US seems to be doing just enough to keep things in equilibrium so I can see this dragging on for quite awhile yet.
If Ukraine eventually falls I don't see Russia stopping there if they can just keep trickling meat into the grinder - Moldova and testing how far they can push it with the Baltic states likely next.
My take is slightly different on it but I've basically been saying this from the start
Soldato
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Every time Russia bombs a civilian area it puts Western leaders who might want to take more fascist enabling stance into a bind because they'd essentially be defending it. Especially awkward when it puts them on the spot during a big transnational political meeting discussing this exact issue of continuing to support Ukraine.
Soldato
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Russia may win in the short term.............. i hope they dont but with countries like Germany reliant on russia for gas, they are essentially paying for the russian war machine. this isnt a pop, its a really bad position they are in as they need Russian gas... and we are in summer. If this is still going on and we have a cold winter then not only will the pressure on the ukranian people get worse as they freeze, the countries using Russian Gas or oil will use even more.
medium to long term however Russia are stuffed imo (which doesnt mean a win for Ukraine either) but no matter what Russia do now no one from the West will trust them on the world stage for years, and whilst for the next year or so they may still get western money for their Gas, surely we will see huge acceleration in alternative energy supplies now, much faster than if Russia had done nothing. Once the EU is sorted on renewables you can bet your bottom dollar that help will be given to other countries as well to get on board... countries which right now are also propping up Russia with Gas and oil money.
Gas and oil as a major income was always coming to an end (sure smaller amounts will be needed but not the $ billions we see now) but this will massively accelerate it imo.
TLDR long term no one wins imo.... but Russia definitely loses and the Ukraine may as well.
medium to long term however Russia are stuffed imo (which doesnt mean a win for Ukraine either) but no matter what Russia do now no one from the West will trust them on the world stage for years, and whilst for the next year or so they may still get western money for their Gas, surely we will see huge acceleration in alternative energy supplies now, much faster than if Russia had done nothing. Once the EU is sorted on renewables you can bet your bottom dollar that help will be given to other countries as well to get on board... countries which right now are also propping up Russia with Gas and oil money.
Gas and oil as a major income was always coming to an end (sure smaller amounts will be needed but not the $ billions we see now) but this will massively accelerate it imo.
TLDR long term no one wins imo.... but Russia definitely loses and the Ukraine may as well.
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Ukraine has mostly deployed their main military forces to hold the line (Donbas) and in blocking positions west of Kyiv and to the south after the failure around Kherson. A lot of the manoeuvre forces and counter-attacks have utilised territorial/irregular forces. When you see footage of Ukrainian soldiers with yellow or blue arm bands they are not regular army [mostly].
So I'd say Ukraine has done relatively well - around Kharkiv, albeit they had one of if not the best mechanized brigades in the Ukraine army in the fight there, a largely territorial and national guard force was facing off against a larger force with significant elements from Russia's elite guards divisions who were much closer to their supplies, reinforcements, artillery and air support than the Ukrainian forces so I'd say they did pretty well there.
It is the failure in the south which has put Ukraine somewhat on the back foot IMO - Mariupol could have held out far longer otherwise.
The biggest problem for Ukraine really is they are fighting outmatched, they need more modern tanks, rifles, artillery and the ability to contest in the air - forcing Russia to either to have to commit or back down in the skies.
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Soldato
You go out for a nice posh meal with a multi millionaire you've known for ages, his treat. You order a lot of food and expensive wine. When it comes to paying the massive bill, the millionaire goes for his wallet and he's forgot it. Nightmare! He asks you to get the bill and he will pay you back tomorrow. You don't hesitate as you know he's good for it even if it is the equivalent of 3 months of your wage.
Tomorrow comes and you don't get the payment, Turns out he's been jailed for attacking his neighbour. He's still absolutely minted but he physically can't pay you back. 5 years later he's released and he's richer than ever as some investments have paid off big time and he wants to celebrate with a nice posh meal. He asks if you mind picking up the bill and he will pay you back tomorrow. Do you do it?
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Soldato
I do wonder just how long public support will go on for. It's fine for people like the PM to say it's a price worth paying, but he's not actually the one who will be paying it. As recession bites here, with job losses, huge energy bills, food prices, winter arriving then people might start not being so happy with literally billions going to Ukraine.
Associate
Russia lost the day they went over the border. Military wise they may well win, or more like it will all grind to a halt with 2 sides facing eschother.
Their loss is the economy side of things, sanctions will never be lifted, they will spiral into dogs fighting for scraps in the streets, unemployment and lack supplies from outside Russia will see them riding bikes and using hot air balloons to travel.
You might think the might of Russia will crush them but in reality they are a joke, beaten to a slog fest by a country that would, before the war be considered as an easy target.
You think they will win, win what? A couple of cities in the east, for what? Just to save face? We all know they wanted another Belarus, with a puppet in government for them to control.
They lost, their goals are long since gone, their next victim is safe. as are the others they thought they could walk over.
They will spend the next 10 years wondering where it all went wrong, from a prosperios country with all the trimmings back to ploughing field with horses.
Soldato
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It's all made up money anyway, no matter what happens they'll always never have enough for home but have a bottomless pit when it comes to everywhere else in the world
If the west bites the bullet and starts to train Ukrainian troops on western MBT , artillery and anti air systems then I think they can win, by win I mean kick russian out of all occupied territories, russian winning will be securing a few regions in the east, not really a win, just a face saving exercise to keep up the Russia strong bs
If we don't and let Russia win it will be very bad news and embolden China and Iran etc.
I don't understand why western governments insist on doing just enough to slow Russia down, we have to give Ukraine more asap.
If we don't and let Russia win it will be very bad news and embolden China and Iran etc.
I don't understand why western governments insist on doing just enough to slow Russia down, we have to give Ukraine more asap.
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