Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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27-Jun-2022 07:39:28 - France’s Le Maire: I Welcome Edf, Engie and TotalEnergies Jointly Calling for Reducing Energy Consumption in Current Context
27-Jun-2022 07:43:07 - France’s Le Maire: We Are Already Discussing Potential Energy Cuts to Businesses, but We Have Not yet Reached That Point
27-Jun-2022 07:44:25 - France’s Le Maire: I Will Ask Head of TotalEnergies to Extend or Increase Pump Price Reductions

27-Jun-2022 07:47:28 - EU Energy Commissioner: Russian Gas Supply to EU Is Half the Level It Was Last Year, Could Decrease Further
27-Jun-2022 07:49:09 - EU Energy Commissioner: Need to Prioritise Saving, There Is Not Enough Gas Globally
27-Jun-2022 07:49:19 - EU Energy Commissioner: Will Discuss Options for EU Countries to Jointly Reduce Gas Demand With EU Energy Ministers Today
27-Jun-2022 07:49:45 - EU Energy Commissioner Says for Industry, We Need a Coordinated EU Approach if There Is a Need to Cut Gas Demand
27-Jun-2022 07:50:18 - EU Energy Commissioner: If We Pool Our Demand, We Can Negotiate Better Energy Prices

27-Jun-2022 08:17:26 - German Economy Minister: If Germany Tries to Fill Gas Reserves, It Won’t Just Be for Domestic Use
27-Jun-2022 08:18:04 - German Economy Minister: A Gas Supply Crisis in One Country Leads to An Economic Crisis in Another
27-Jun-2022 08:19:19 - German Economy Minister: Gas Supply Is Still Secure in Germany
27-Jun-2022 08:20:00 - German Economy Minister: We Need Fast and Collective Action in EU To Avoid Serious Economic Crisis
27-Jun-2022 08:20:54 - German Economy Minister: Russian Import Price Cap Only a Good Idea If Enough Countries Take Part

27-Jun-2022 08:52:39 - Governor of Luhansk Region in Ukraine Urges Civilians to Urgently Evacuate City of Lysychansk

27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 to Make ‘Unprecedented, Long-Term Security Commitment’ to Providing Ukraine With Financial, Humanitarian, Military and Diplomatic Support As Long As It Takes
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 Will Commit to ‘Timely Provision’ of Modern Defense Equipment and Advanced Weapons Systems to Ukraine
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 to Issue Coordinated Steps Tuesday to Raise Pressure on Russia, Close to Setting Global Price Cap for Russian Oil
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7’s Goal Is to Starve Russian President Putin of Main Source of Cash
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 Will Task Ministers to Work Intensively on Russian Oil Price Cap With Countries Around World and Stakeholders Including in Private Sector
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 Still Working on Precise Mechanisms to Implement Price Cap on Russian Oil
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 Price Cap Can Best Achieve Dual Objectives of Curbing Russian Revenue and Minimizing Impact on Rest of World
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 Leaders Believe Targeting Services for Transporting Russian Oil Is ‘Promising Avenue’ to Deny Russia Revenues, Minimize Disruptions Elsewhere
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: Russia’s Default Shows Dramatic, Cumulative Impact of Sanctions Imposed Over War in Ukraine
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 Leaders Will Also Align on Tariffs on Russian Goods to Ensure Russia Pays for War
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: Biden Will Impose Higher Tariffs on 570 Groups of Russian Goods Worth About $2.3 Bln, Not Expected to Raise Costs to U.S. Consumers
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: U.S. Will on Tuesday Announce Blocking Sanctions on Major Russian State-Owned Defense Enterprises
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: U.S. Treasury, State Dept Will Impose Sanctions on Private Military Companies Operating in Ukraine
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: U.S. Exports to Russia Have Decreased by 97% in Wake of Sanctions Imposed Over War in Ukraine
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 Leaders Will Also Impose Sanctions on Those Responsible for Human Rights Abuses, Including War Crimes or Trying to Steal Ukrainian Grain
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: U.S. to Sanction Russian-Installed Senior Officials in Contested Areas, Impose Visa Restrictions on 500 Officials
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 Leaders Will Also Provide Short-Term Budgetary Support for Ukraine
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: U.S. Will Provide $7.5 bln to Help Ukraine Cover Budget Shortfalls
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: G7 Leaders Will Continue to Target Efforts by Those Engaging In Evasion and Backfill Activities
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: U.S. Commerce Department Will Add Several Companies to Entity List For Helping Russia Evade Sanctions
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: U.S. Will Impose Blocking Sanctions Against Persons Tied To Aiding Russia’s Evasion Efforts
27-Jun-2022 09:00:00 - U.S. Official: U.S. Commerce, Treasury Will Issue an Alert to Financial Institutions to Aid in Detecting Potential Violations of Export Controls
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing...-and-hold-the-russian-federation-accountable/

27-Jun-2022 09:35:27 - Japan PM Kishida to Announce $200 mln in Assistance at G7 Summit to Respond To Food Crisis — Kyodo
27-Jun-2022 09:47:55 - Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Asked G7 for Anti-Aircraft Defence Systems, Security Guarantees, Help on Grain Exports, Further Sanctions Against Russia, and Reconstruction Aid — European Official Close to Summit
27-Jun-2022 10:28:11 - Ukrainian President Zelenskiy Told G7 Leaders He Wanted to End War by End of Year Before Winter Sets In — Two EU Diplomats

27-Jun-2022 11:35:21 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Are Steadfast in Our Solidarity With Ukraine and Reaffirm Our Unwavering Commitment to Support the Government
27-Jun-2022 11:35:21 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Stand With Ukraine for As Long As It Takes
27-Jun-2022 11:36:13 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: Stand Ready to Support an International Reconstructionplan, Drawn Up and Implemented by Ukraine in Close Coordination With Bilateraland Multilateral Partners
27-Jun-2022 11:36:53 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Welcome the Presidency’s Initiative to Convene Withukraine an International High-Level Experts Conference To Make Progress on a Comprehensivereconstruction Plan
27-Jun-2022 11:37:16 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Reiterate Our Condemnation of Russia’s Unjustified Use of Nuclear Rhetoric
27-Jun-2022 11:37:41 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Express Serious Concern After the Announcement by Russia That It Could Transfer Missiles With Nuclear Capabilities to Belarus
27-Jun-2022 11:38:10 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: It Is Up to Ukraine to Decide on a Future Peace Settlement, Free From External Pressure or Influence
27-Jun-2022 11:38:34 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: Will Continue to Coordinate Efforts to Meet Ukraine’s Urgent Requirements for Military and Defence Equipment
27-Jun-2022 11:38:37 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Also Explore Other Viable Options to Support Ukraine’s Humanitarian Needs, Early Recovery, and Reconstruction, Including Using Frozen Russian Assets Consistent With Our National Laws
27-Jun-2022 11:39:03 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Are Ready to Grant, or Have Pledged and Provided Upto USD 29.5 Billion Of Budget Support in 2022
27-Jun-2022 11:39:14 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Are Ready to Reach Arrangements Together With Interested Countries and Institutions and Ukraine on Sustained Security Commitments
27-Jun-2022 11:40:18 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Are Committed to Sustaining and Intensifying International Economic and Political Pressure on President Putin’s Regime and Its Enablers in Belarus
27-Jun-2022 11:40:39 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Continue Our Targeted Use of Coordinated Sanctions For As Long As Necessary
27-Jun-2022 11:40:45 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Seek to Provide Safe Passage for Refugees, Including by Further Streamlining Immigration Procedures and Visa Requirements
27-Jun-2022 11:41:08 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Are Determined to Reduce Russia’s Revenues, Including From Gold
27-Jun-2022 11:41:17 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Demand That Russia Immediately Allow the Safe Return of Ukrainian Nationals Taken Often With Force To Russia Without Their Consent
27-Jun-2022 11:41:32 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Also Continue to Target Evasion and Backfill Activities
27-Jun-2022 11:41:40 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: There Can Be No Impunity for War Crimes and Other Atrocities
27-Jun-2022 11:42:06 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Align and Expand Targeted Sanctions to Further Restrict Russia’s Access to Key Industrial Inputs, Services, and Technologies
27-Jun-2022 11:42:34 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: Russia Bears Enormous Responsibility for Rising Threats to Global Food Security As A Result of the Conflict
27-Jun-2022 11:42:44 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Increase the Costs of Russia’s War on Ukraine by Imposing Targeted Sanctions on Those Responsible for War Crimes Or Exercising Illegitimate Authority in Ukraine
27-Jun-2022 11:43:10 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Urgently Call on Russia to Cease Attacks on Agricultural Infrastructure and Enable Free Passage of Agricultural Shipping
27-Jun-2022 11:43:28 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Foster Coordinated Initiatives That Promote Global Food Security
27-Jun-2022 11:43:32 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: Will Impose Sanctions on Those Standing Behind Russia’s Engagement in Efforts to Increase Global Food Insecurity By Stealing and Exporting Ukrainian Grain
27-Jun-2022 11:44:00 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Continue to Assist the Global Economy and Take Action To Help Mitigate Spillover Effects
27-Jun-2022 11:44:37 - G7 Statement on Ukraine: We Will Continue to Ensure That in Taking Further Measures, We Are Not Targeting Food and Allow for the Free Flow of Agricultural Products

Spoiler: *If Ukraine loses, all democracies lose, Italian PM tells G7

Spoiler: *France wants Iran, Venezuela return to oil markets

Spoiler: *Kremlin rejects Russian default, says bond payments executed

Spoiler: *Russia says Ukraine at fault for missile landing on Kyiv residential building

Spoiler: *Russia says it is expelling eight Greek diplomats

27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Biden, Xi Will Have Opportunity to Engage in Next Few Weeks
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Sees Growing Convergence at Both G7 and NATO Summits About Threat That China Poses
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: U.S. Not Looking to Divide World Into Rival Blocs and Make People Choose
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Biden and Turkey’s Erdogan May Well See One Another at NATO Summit
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Flurry of Diplomatic Activity Going On About Bid for Sweden, Finland to Join NATO
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Not Expecting All Issues Around Sweden, Finland Membership to Be Resolved by Madrid Summit
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: U.S. in Process of Finalizing Weapons Package for Ukraine That Includes Long-Range Air Defense and Ammunition
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Ukraine’s Zelenskiy Had Specific Requests for G7, Including for Further Air Defense Systems
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Zelenskiy Also Asked for Economic Assistance to Keep Ukraine Afloat
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: U.S. Providing Ammunition for Ukraine’s Artillery Fight on Continuing Basis
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Zelenskiy Was Focused on Trying to Ensure Ukraine in As ‘Advantageous Position’ In Next Months, Not Years
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: There Is Emerging Consensus That Price Cap on Russian Oil Is a ‘Serious Method’ to Reduce Russian Revenues
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Technical Work Needed to Develop Executable Cap on Russian Oil Prices, Nothing Finalized yet
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Discussions Over Oil Price Cap Heading in the Right Direction
27-Jun-2022 13:00:00 - U.S. National Security Adviser Sullivan: Russia Faces Limitations in Its Ability to Resupply and Fill Out Its Battalion Groups

Spoiler: *EU states agree to 40% renewables target by 2030 - Germany

Spoiler: *Lithuania hit by cyber attack -government agency

Spoiler: *Russia's Killnet hacker group says it attacked Lithuania

Spoiler: *Russia's Putin and Brazil's Bolsonaro discuss global food security

27-Jun-2022 14:09:06 - G7 Statement: Agreed to Work Together to Accelerate a Clean and Just Transition Towards Climate Neutrality, While Ensuring Energy Security
27-Jun-2022 14:10:17 - G7 Statement: Reaffirmed Commitment to Hold the Global Average Temperature Increase Well Below 2°c and Resolving to Pursue Efforts to Limit It To 1.5°c Above Pre-Industrial Levels
27-Jun-2022 14:11:02 - G7 Statement: Leaders Agreed to Explore Options for Decarbonising the Energy Mix and Accelerating the Transition From Dependency on Fossil Fuels
27-Jun-2022 14:12:30 - G7 Statement: Discussed Phasing Down Coal While Increasing the Share of Renewable Energies in the Energy Mix
27-Jun-2022 14:16:36 - G7 Statement: Leaders Agreed That Phasing Down Unabated Coal and Scaling Up Clean and Renewable Energies Needs to Be Environmentally and Socially Just

27-Jun-2022 14:43:37 - Governor of Ukrainian Region of Poltava: Civilian Building Hit in Attack on City Of Kremenchuk, There Are Casualties
27-Jun-2022 15:07:50 - Mayor of Ukraine’s City of Kremenchuk: Deaths Reported In Missile Strike on the City
27-Jun-2022 15:09:59 - Kremenchuk Mayor on Facebook Says a “Very Crowded” Place Was Hit in Missile Strike
27-Jun-2022 15:21:35 - Ukraine’s President: Russian Missiles Hit Shopping Centre in City of Kremenchuk
27-Jun-2022 15:22:07 - Ukraine’s President: Over 1,000 Civilians Were in Kremenchuk Shopping Centre at Time of Missile Strike, Fire Raging
27-Jun-2022 15:49:04 - Deputy Head of Ukrainian Presidential Office: At Least Two Killed, 20 Wounded in Missile Strike on Kremenchuk Shopping Mall
27-Jun-2022 17:46:01 - Death Toll in Russian Missile Strike on Shopping Mall in Kremenchuk in Central Ukraine Rises to at Least 10 — Regional Governor

Spoiler: *U.N. spokesman says attack on Ukraine shopping mall 'deplorable'

Spoiler: *Germany financial watchdog sees limited impact of Ukraine war on financial system

Spoiler: *Hungary sees no room for compromise on EU gas embargo against Russia- foreign minister

Spoiler: *Scholz says Ties to Russia cannot return to what they were pre-Ukraine war

Spoiler: *Russian shelling kills four in Ukrainian city of Kharkiv - regional governor

Spoiler: *OPEC+ trims 2022 market surplus projection to 1 mln bpd -report

Spoiler: *Macron tells Biden that UAE, Saudi can barely raise oil output

27-Jun-2022 16:41:57 - U.S. Increases Rates of Duty to 35% on Certain Russian Products Not Already Prohibited — White House Proclamation
27-Jun-2022 16:42:58 - Increase in U.S. Duties on Russian Products Tied to Suspension of Normal Trade Relations Over Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine — White House Proclamation

27-Jun-2022 16:55:48 - Sweden’s Andersson: Has Strong Hope That Talks With Turkey Over NATO Accession Can Be Concluded on Short Notice
27-Jun-2022 16:58:33 - Sweden’s Andersson: Sweden Will Continue to Take a Firm Stance Against Terrorism, Will Not Be a Safe Haven for Terrorists

27-Jun-2022 17:02:16 - Canada to Impose Additional Sanctions on Russia, Including Restrictions on 6 Individuals, 46 Entities Linked to Russian Defence Sectors — Statement
27-Jun-2022 17:03:24 - Canada Intends to Introduce Sanctions Against Russian State-Sponsored Disinformation and Propaganda Agents and Entities
27-Jun-2022 17:04:43 - Canada to Take Measures to Ban Export of Certain Advanced Technologies That Could Improve Russia’s Defence Manufacturing Capability
27-Jun-2022 17:06:18 - Canada, With U.S., UK, and Japan, Intends to Impose Ban on Import of Certain Gold Goods From Russia

27-Jun-2022 17:39:16 - G7 and Guest Nations India, Indonesia, Senegal, Argentina and South Africa Reaffirm Commitment Tothe Rules-Based International Order- Statement
27-Jun-2022 17:40:14 - G7 and Guest Nations India, Indonesia, Senegal, Argentina and South Africa Hail All Courageous Defenders of Democratic Systems That Stand Against Oppression and Violence
27-Jun-2022 17:40:54 - G7 and Guest Nations India, Indonesia, Senegal, Argentina and South Africa Oppose the Threat or Use of Force Of Any Kind That Is Not In Compliance With International Law

27-Jun-2022 17:45:39 - EU Energy Commissioner Simson: Russian Gas Cuts Aim to Destabilise EU Market, Increase Energy Prices and Stop EU Countries Filling Gas Storage
27-Jun-2022 17:46:38 - EU Energy Commissioner: Likely That Things Will Become More Challenging for Gas Supply in Coming Months
27-Jun-2022 17:47:15 - EU Energy Commissioner: Further Supply Cuts From Russia Cannot Be Excluded, Serious Disruption Is Likely
27-Jun-2022 17:48:00 - EU Energy Commissioner: EU and Member States’ Gas Coordination Group Will Increase Monitoring Of Supply Situation Over Summer
27-Jun-2022 17:48:50 - EU Energy Commissioner: Countries Must Replace Gas Consumption With Other Fuels Wherever Possible, in Industry, Electricity and Heating Sectors
27-Jun-2022 17:49:21 - EU Energy Commissioner: EU Countries Should Update Contingency Plans to Cope With Gas Supply Shocks
27-Jun-2022 17:49:52 - EU Energy Commissioner: EU Commission Is Working on Updated Analysis for Gas Supply Situation Over Coming Winter
27-Jun-2022 17:50:58 - EU Energy Commissioner: EU and Azerbaijan Are Negotiating Memorandum Of Understanding on Gas Supply
27-Jun-2022 17:59:37 - EU Energy Commissioner: EU May Hold Emergency Meeting of Energy Ministers on Gas Supply If One Is Deemed Needed
27-Jun-2022 18:06:43 - EU Energy Commissioner: We Will Propose Measures to Curtail Gas Demand in July
27-Jun-2022 18:07:50 - EU Energy Commissioner: EU Proposal in July Will Identify critical Sectors Where Curtailing Gas Use Would Disrupt Supply Chains

 

[Chris Wilson]

Russia lost the day they went over the border. Military wise they may well win, or more like it will all grind to a halt with 2 sides facing eschother.

Their loss is the economy side of things, sanctions will never be lifted, they will spiral into dogs fighting for scraps in the streets, unemployment and lack supplies from outside Russia will see them riding bikes and using hot air balloons to travel.

You might think the might of Russia will crush them but in reality they are a joke, beaten to a slog fest by a country that would, before the war be considered as an easy target.

You think they will win, win what? A couple of cities in the east, for what? Just to save face? We all know they wanted another Belarus, with a puppet in government for them to control.

They lost, their goals are long since gone, their next victim is safe. as are the others they thought they could walk over.

They will spend the next 10 years wondering where it all went wrong, from a prosperios country with all the trimmings back to ploughing field with horses.

Oh, OK, it's one of those... "What is the definition of a win" jobbies. Moral against military. Sounds like you are preparing for a lose scenario and getting the excuses in to me.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

I don't know if this has been posted but Ukraine has mentioned how much equipment they have lost:

”They reach 50%.” The Land Forces reported on the losses of the Armed Forces in equipment

The Land Forces reported on the losses of the Armed Forces in equipment

babel.ua

He said this in an interview with National Defense magazine.

According to Karpenko, Ukraine has already lost 400 tanks, 1,300 armored vehicles and 700 artillery units. The commander added that the loss of equipment reached "30-40, sometimes up to 50% due to active combat."

Karpenko also explained that in order to fully cover the entire front line, where active fighting is taking place, Ukraine needs to fully equip 40 brigades. These 40 brigades need a total of 4,000 infantry fighting vehicles, 1,200 tanks and almost 2,200 artillery systems.

Ukraine had close to 900~1000 tanks,1500 armoured vehicles and about 1500 artillery systems IIRC,at the start of the war. Also the other issue is going to be the spare parts for the equipment they already have,and its going to take time to train them to use our equipment(and service it). We really should have at least started the training for our equipment from the first weeks of the war,and built up spare parts stockpiles so it would be a seamless transfer. As usual our dithering has lost Ukraine valuable time.

This report from RUSI(Royal United Services Institute) is also sobering:

The Return of Industrial Warfare

Can the West still provide the arsenal of democracy?

rusi.org

The big issue it seems are industrial base WRT to ammunition and actual production seems to wired towards profit in the west IMHO. Compared that to 50 to 60 years ago where our base could easily produce large quantities of ammunition quickly especially as there were many state owned enterprises(which were either shut down or privatised). China is going to be a PITA.

The winner in a prolonged war between two near-peer powers is still based on which side has the strongest industrial base. A country must either have the manufacturing capacity to build massive quantities of ammunition or have other manufacturing industries that can be rapidly converted to ammunition production. Unfortunately, the West no longer seems to have either.
Presently, the US is decreasing its artillery ammunition stockpiles. In 2020, artillery ammunition purchases decreased by 36% to $425 million. In 2022, the plan is to reduce expenditure on 155mm artillery rounds to $174 million. This is equivalent to 75,357 M795 basic ‘dumb’ rounds for regular artillery, 1,400 XM1113 rounds for the M777, and 1,046 XM1113 rounds for Extended Round Artillery Cannons. Finally, there are $75 million dedicated for Excalibur precision-guided munitions that costs $176K per round, thus totaling 426 rounds. In short, US annual artillery production would at best only last for 10 days to two weeks of combat in Ukraine. If the initial estimate of Russian shells fired is over by 50%, it would only extend the artillery supplied for three weeks.
The US is not the only country facing this challenge. In a recent war game involving US, UK and French forces, UK forces exhausted national stockpiles of critical ammunition after eight days.
Unfortunately, this is not only the case with artillery. Anti-tank Javelins and air-defence Stingers are in the same boat. The US shipped 7,000 Javelin missiles to Ukraine – roughly one-third of its stockpile – with more shipments to come. Lockheed Martin produces about 2,100 missiles a year, though this number might ramp up to 4,000 in a few years. Ukraine claims to use 500 Javelin missiles every day.
The expenditure of cruise missiles and theatre ballistic missiles is just as massive. The Russians have fired between 1,100 and 2,100 missiles. The US currently purchases 110 PRISM, 500 JASSM and 60 Tomahawk cruise missiles annually, meaning that in three months of combat, Russia has burned through four times the US annual missile production. The Russian rate of production can only be estimated. Russia started missile production in 2015 in limited initial runs, and even in 2016 the production runs were estimated at 47 missiles. This means that it had only five to six years of full-scale production.

If competition between autocracies and democracies has really entered a military phase, then the arsenal of democracy must radically improve its approach to the production of materiel in wartime

The initial stockpile in February 2022 is unknown, but considering expenditures and the requirement to hold substantial stockpiles back in case of war with NATO, it is unlikely that the Russians are worried. In fact, they seem to have enough to expend operational-level cruise missiles on tactical targets. The assumption that there are 4,000 cruise and ballistic missiles in the Russian inventory is not unreasonable. This production will probably increase despite Western sanctions. In April, ODK Saturn, which makes Kalibr missile motors, announced an additional 500 job openings. This suggests that even in this field, the West only has parity with Russia.

Flawed Assumptions​

The first key assumption about future of combat is that precision-guided weapons will reduce overall ammunition consumption by requiring only one round to destroy the target. The war in Ukraine is challenging this assumption. Many ‘dumb’ indirect fire systems are achieving a great deal of precision without precision guidance, and still the overall ammunition consumption is massive. Part of the issue is that the digitisation of global maps, combined with a massive proliferation of drones, allows geolocation and targeting with increased precision, with video evidence demonstrating the ability to score first strike hits by indirect fires.
The second crucial assumption is that industry can be turned on and off at will. This mode of thinking was imported from the business sector and has spread through US government culture. In the civilian sector, customers can increase or decrease their orders. The producer may be hurt by a drop in orders but rarely is that drop catastrophic because usually there are multiple consumers and losses can be spread among consumers. Unfortunately, this does not work for military purchases. There is only one customer in the US for artillery shells – the military. Once the orders drop off, the manufacturer must close production lines to cut costs to stay in business. Small businesses may close entirely. Generating new capacity is very challenging, especially as there is so little manufacturing capacity left to draw skilled workers from. This is especially challenging because many older armament production systems are labour intensive to the point where they are practically built by hand, and it takes a long time to train a new workforce. The supply chain issues are also problematic because subcomponents may be produced by a subcontractor who either goes out of business, with loss of orders or retools for other customers or who relies on parts from overseas, possibly from a hostile country.
China’s near monopoly on rare earth materials is an obvious challenge here. Stinger missile production will not be completed until 2026, in part due to component shortages. US reports on the defence industrial base have made it clear that ramping up production in war-time may be challenging, if not impossible, due to supply chain issues and a lack of trained personnel due to the degradation of the US manufacturing base.
Finally, there is an assumption about overall ammunition consumption rates. The US government has always lowballed this number. From the Vietnam era to today, small arms plants have shrunk from five to just one. This was glaring at the height of the Iraq war, when US started to run low on small arms ammunition, causing the US government to buy British and Israeli ammunition during the initial stage of the war. At one point, the US had to dip into Vietnam and even Second World War-era ammo stockpiles of .50 calibre ammunition to feed the war effort. This was largely the result of incorrect assumptions about how effective US troops would be. Indeed, the Government Accountability Office estimated that it took 250,000 rounds to kill one insurgent. Luckily for the US, its gun culture ensured that small arms ammunition industry has a civilian component in the US. This is not the case with other types of ammunition, as shown earlier with Javelin and Stinger missiles. Without access to government methodology, it is impossible to understand why US government estimates were off, but there is a risk that the same errors were made with other types of munitions.

 

[StriderX]

I don't know if this has been posted but Ukraine has mentioned how much equipment they have lost:

”They reach 50%.” The Land Forces reported on the losses of the Armed Forces in equipment

The Land Forces reported on the losses of the Armed Forces in equipment

babel.ua

Ukraine had close to 900~1000 tanks,1500 armoured vehicles and about 1500 artillery systems IIRC,at the start of the war. Also the other issue is going to be the spare parts for the equipment they already have,and its going to take time to train them to use our equipment(and service it). We really should have at least started the training for our equipment from the first weeks of the war,and built up spare parts stockpiles so it would be a seamless transfer. As usual our dithering has lost Ukraine valuable time.

This report from RUSI(Royal United Services Institute) is also sobering:

The Return of Industrial Warfare

Can the West still provide the arsenal of democracy?

rusi.org

The big issue it seems are industrial base WRT to ammunition and actual production seems to wired towards profit in the west IMHO. Compared that to 50 to 60 years ago where our base could easily produce large quantities of ammunition quickly especially as there were many state owned enterprises(which were either shut down or privatised). China is going to be a PITA.

The neolibs/neocons have really ****** the West over haven't they?

 

[supafly]

I wonder what will happen if the war is still ongoing when the weather gets cold? With insufficient gas supply to cook or heat, what do you think will happen then?

 

[Chris Wilson]

I wonder what will happen if the war is still ongoing when the weather gets cold? With insufficient gas supply to cook or heat, what do you think will happen then?

The west can burn all that none crime, hate crime paperwork and rainbow tat, and reflect on what really matters?

 

[lookitsjonno]

I wonder what will happen if the war is still ongoing when the weather gets cold? With insufficient gas supply to cook or heat, what do you think will happen then?

We'll find out soon, once we get towards the cliff we're sleepwalking towards

 

[Custor]

double post

 

[Custor]

Russian still creeping north from Popasna. The whole salient going to go and the new real defense line at Bakhmut and Sloviansk?
Main road between Bakhmut and Lysychansk cut.

 

[BowdonUK]

The longer this war goes on it increases our chances of attacking.

We can't afford for Ukraine to lose, or we'll be at the mercy of Putin and the sanctions he can put on us.

 

[StriderX]

I wonder what will happen if the war is still ongoing when the weather gets cold? With insufficient gas supply to cook or heat, what do you think will happen then?

Use a microwave and air-fryer, both are far more energy efficient and only needs gas if it's part of the energy composition.

 

[CAT-THE-FIFTH]

The neolibs/neocons have really ****** the West over haven't they?

Yes and you can tell how I have moaned about this for years. On top of this they have stradled our economies with huge amounts of debt to enrich themselves and their buddies since 2008/2009. Then made us overly dependent on external manufacturing and resource extraction in the name of higher margins.

 

[Malevolence]

So what excuses will Russia come up with for bombing a packed shopping centre in the middle of a city, killing and injuring God knows how many innocent civilians just trying to get by?

 

[Minusorange]

So what excuses will Russia come up with for bombing a packed shopping centre in the middle of a city, killing and injuring God knows how many innocent civilians just trying to get by?

They've said in the UN it was a false flag like Bucha

 

[ANDREW GREEN]

I do wonder just how long public support will go on for. It's fine for people like the PM to say it's a price worth paying, but he's not actually the one who will be paying it. As recession bites here, with job losses, huge energy bills, food prices, winter arriving then people might start not being so happy with literally billions going to Ukraine.

I mean this is our WW2 moment. Do we stand up against Russo Nazis and genocide, or tip our hats to them like the Dutch and Swiss and ask if we can launder their blood stained money?

 

[Mr Jack]

...or we'll be at the mercy of Putin and the sanctions he can put on us.

What sanctions? The only things Russia has that the West wants are (1) obtainable from other sources, and (2) at least as important to Russia as to the West. Especially so in the aftermath of all this.

 

[Grim5]

The west can burn all that none crime, hate crime paperwork and rainbow tat, and reflect on what really matters?

Speak for yourself, I don't use Russian gas, or any gas for that matter

 

[ANDREW GREEN]

They will run out of meat for the grinder soon if they don't switch to some form of mass mobilisation - though the likes of [formerly] Wagner are still managing to drag up new mercenaries by waving tempting salaries around (which an increasing number won't get to collect by the looks of things any way). If they switch gears mobilisation wise they can sustain this for a long time unless the civilian population kicks back which doesn't seem likely in any significant way.

They've been pulling a lot of tanks and stuff out of main reserves in the east recently and moving them towards the western military district so I suspect they'll be able to sustain the hardware side of things awhile yet - but you can't just drag someone off the street and stick them in a tank or anti-air vehicle, etc. (Looks likely they will have another crack at Kyiv but with heavier units this time at some point in the later half of this year or early next).

Sadly the US seems to be doing just enough to keep things in equilibrium so I can see this dragging on for quite awhile yet.

If Ukraine eventually falls I don't see Russia stopping there if they can just keep trickling meat into the grinder - Moldova and testing how far they can push it with the Baltic states likely next.



My take is slightly different on it but I've basically been saying this from the start

Russia's meat grinder only has so much meat left to grind. I forget exactly how much equipment they've lost but it's been between 30-50% of their total military equipment and that's in 4 months of war and making slow progress in the east. Their problem is that their military production is massively hampered by sanctions. There's footage of Russians using WW2 riffles and other outdated equipment.

Ukraine has far better quality artillery than Russia currently that is just coming into play. Artillery that has far longer range impacts that is far more accurate than Russian's have available. In theory this should mean Ukraine can pick off Russian targets that can't fire back. I saw an interview of a Ukrainian general and he was very confident once these weapons were fully deployed that Russia could be pressed back outside of Ukrainian borders

The recent shopping centre massacre does seem to be a low blowed response to the success of the damage long ranged missiles have inflicted on Russian targets.

 

[NinjaCool]

The producer of the Bayraktar TB2 UAVs will donate 3 drones to the Ukrainian Armed Forces for free after a successful crowdfunding campaign.

Baykar Makina to donate three drones to Ukraine

Turkey's Baykar Makina, the producer of Bayraktar TB2 UAVs, has said that it will donate three drones to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, for which Ukrainians raised funds as part of the People's Bayraktar project by showman Serhiy Prytula. — Ukrinform.

www.ukrinform.net

 

[Turn]

27-Jun-2022 19:58:35 - Governor of Ukraine’s Luhansk Region: At Least 8 Killed, 21 Wounded by Russian Rocket Attack on Lysychansk on Monday

27-Jun-2022 20:22:46 - France Condemns Russian Missile Strike on Ukrainian Shopping Centre, Says Russia Must Answer for These Acts — Foreign Ministry
27-Jun-2022 21:43:05 - G7 Leaders Condemn “Abominable Attack” on Shopping Mall in Kremenchuk, Ukraine
27-Jun-2022 21:43:31 - G7 Leaders President Putin and People Responsible Will Be Held to Account