Caporegime
Basically this.
Said in jest, but I am curious if Ukraine have made some MLRS technicals by now...
They've got a trailer mounted version too.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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They've got a trailer mounted version too.
Consigliere
Basically this.
Said in jest, but I am curious if Ukraine have made some MLRS technicals by now...
Imagine popping into Tesco with one of these and putting your carrier bags in the back.
Trying to find a hospital or school they haven't bombed into the ground already.
I was briefly the driver of what was basically a Mercedes G wagon with a "small" artillery (don't ask me what it was, no clue, but from memory it was about 30-50cm diameter and about 3 meters tall) mounted at the back. Me and my fellow soldiers would pop to the shops occasionally, which in hindsight was a bit foolish to say the least, but for us 18 year old seemed like funImagine popping into Tesco with one of these and putting your carrier bags in the back.
(and a good way to pickup girls, or so we thought!)
Soldato
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They don't really have much left to go big on, still surprised they've been reluctant to declare actual war in order to get a proper military recruitment
Consigliere
I think events close to/in Crimea will push them over the edge...honestly, bit worried about it. 
Caporegime
Open war or nukes. That's about it.
Well they said (though not sure if they actually mean it versus the strict doctrine) that an attack in Russia proper which they obviously think Crimea counts would be justification for them using nuclear weapons, so if they end up not doing that then they debase their threats surrounding annexation completely.
Consigliere
I guess either one of these is truly 'no going back'.
At least at the moment they call it a 'special operation' so will say 'no it wasn't a war' and slowly back down...obviously it is a war though.
Soldato
Waiting for "we have achieved.... something something objectives" from Russia at some point.
Caporegime
Vlad has a massive coup-phobia. Declaring actual war creates a large number of angry, armed men in Russia who are strongly motivated not to go and get killed for Putin in a stupid war. It also transfers power from his closely allied security services, to the military he's consistently tried to undermine, and I doubt Russian Generals are really so stupid they've not noticed how many of their predecessors died in mysterious circumstances.
I think events close to/in Crimea will push them over the edge...honestly, bit worried about it.
It’s not hot enough so a bit of ICBM action should warm things up nicely.
Soldato
More likely to be Russia, because they are the ****Ing mental ones in the room, and have a whole heap of false flag attacks under their belt already including the ones which were given as justification for the 'special operation'.
Plus this would not even be the first time this war that Russia has attacked nuclear facilities - see Chernobyl.
I doubt its Russia they control it and have been snice march, doesn't make any sense if it did exploded they would have to withdraw from that area and Kherson which Ukraine has been trying to retake. It also comes at time where the head of administration of occupied Zaporzhzhia plans referendum to joining Russia.
Caporegime
^ What a good looking tank.
Where?
Soldato
Given Russias narrative for doing whatever the hell it feels like, I'd say there is a much higher chance this is Russia than Ukraine.
If Ukraine wanted to make threats with power plants they would have done it ages ago.
They know the world is watching what they do closely, so they aren't likely to risk losing support they need by shelling a nuclear plant.
That is my take anyway, and fits in with the Russian MO where false flags and lying is 2nd nature.
Soldato
It would make sense for them to be using these attacks as a terrorist threat though - "attack crimea again and we might end up blowing a hole in the reactor next time..."
The referendum will go whichever way Putin wants it to anyway, so it's irrelevant.
Withdrawing from Kherson wouldn't necessarily be a big deal once you crank the local stakes up to 'nuclear exclusion zone'. Troops might not even have to withdraw anyway - Russia doesn't care than much about the long term well-being of their soldiers.
At the end of the day Ukraine has a lot more to lose (both the impact on the country and citizens, and on diplomacy etc) from damaging the nuclear plant than Russia does. Russia is currently operating by spinning high stakes roulette wheels in the hope that that ball will stop somewhere favourable for them. Shelling a nuclear plant fits right into their modus operandi.
I guess it's possible Ukraine did shell the plant, probably accidentally, but it just seems much less likely to me.
Soldato
If there is a nuclear threat (even if it's blowing up a plant) then NATO may stop in more fully, especially if it's proven to be Russia and not Ukraine causing it.
Blowing up a plant threatens another Chernobyl, fallout will impact not just Ukraine civvies but anyone nearby, including other nearby countries.
Blowing up a plant threatens another Chernobyl, fallout will impact not just Ukraine civvies but anyone nearby, including other nearby countries.
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