Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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from UK intelligence: more than half of the tanks and other armoured vehicles in Ukraine's possession is what they have captured from fleeing Russians

They did not have that many to start with.

There is an interview with him in Ukrainian, but the auto subs are all over the place. He tells how they were hitting tanks with RPG to lock the turret. Therefore the tank would be unusable in most circumstances.

 
He accepted that he cannot take Ukraine because he was *forced* to accept it on the battlefield.

The Ukrainian army is in the process of *forcing* him to accept that he cannot have *any* of Ukraine.

So that's where I think we're not quite right if this was a non-hands tied battle between Russian and Ukraine it'd be completely different. Looking back at WWII, the Japanese where hell bent on not surrendering to the West far more I'd argue than Ukraine currently are intent expelling the Russians. It took two atom bombs for them to realise that it was futile to persist. Ultimately the same would be true for Ukraine, as admirable as I find Zelenskyy's resolve to oust the Russians if it was a straight up choice between losing millions or allowing Russia to occupy 4 regions he'd be both mad and a bad leader not to back down. Ukraine will be counting that Russia will not do this, but a demonstration (I.e. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons) would immediately change the calculus. Zelenskyy's problem is that he knows (and deep down we all know) that nuclear weapons usage with no significant impact on NATO countries will not prompt military (nuclear or not) from NATO - just more words and perhaps some more pointy weapons like non-nuclear cruise missiles being given to Ukraine.
 
So that's where I think we're not quite right if this was a non-hands tied battle between Russian and Ukraine it'd be completely different. Looking back at WWII, the Japanese where hell bent on not surrendering to the West far more I'd argue than Ukraine currently are intent expelling the Russians. It took two atom bombs for them to realise that it was futile to persist. Ultimately the same would be true for Ukraine, as admirable as I find Zelenskyy's resolve to oust the Russians if it was a straight up choice between losing millions or allowing Russia to occupy 4 regions he'd be both mad and a bad leader not to back down. Ukraine will be counting that Russia will not do this, but a demonstration (I.e. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons) would immediately change the calculus. Zelenskyy's problem is that he knows (and deep down we all know) that nuclear weapons usage with no significant impact on NATO countries will not prompt military (nuclear or not) from NATO - just more words and perhaps some more pointy weapons like non-nuclear cruise missiles being given to Ukraine.

In a "in the moment" and "logical, cold" way I agree.
It would be in world's immediate interests to surrender those area.
Let putin have a "victory".
Get the rest of Ukraine into nato.
Have a new cold war. Everyone knows where everyone else is at. There is no more wiggle room.


But morally, you can't blame him or the people. And you shouldn't back down to bullies.

It also would rely on putin accepting that. He may well not.
 
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Russian, Belarus and Ukraine human rights activists get the 2022 Nobel Peace Prize. A candle in the dark.

 
So that's where I think we're not quite right if this was a non-hands tied battle between Russian and Ukraine it'd be completely different. Looking back at WWII, the Japanese where hell bent on not surrendering to the West far more I'd argue than Ukraine currently are intent expelling the Russians. It took two atom bombs for them to realise that it was futile to persist. Ultimately the same would be true for Ukraine, as admirable as I find Zelenskyy's resolve to oust the Russians if it was a straight up choice between losing millions or allowing Russia to occupy 4 regions he'd be both mad and a bad leader not to back down. Ukraine will be counting that Russia will not do this, but a demonstration (I.e. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons) would immediately change the calculus. Zelenskyy's problem is that he knows (and deep down we all know) that nuclear weapons usage with no significant impact on NATO countries will not prompt military (nuclear or not) from NATO - just more words and perhaps some more pointy weapons like non-nuclear cruise missiles being given to Ukraine.
Well no NATO can't act but the US (and anyone else who wants to) can and per the series of events that would be set off by Russia's conventionalisation of nuclear weapons it would have little choice but to act as not acting would be incredibly miserable for everyone.
 
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So that's where I think we're not quite right if this was a non-hands tied battle between Russian and Ukraine it'd be completely different. Looking back at WWII, the Japanese where hell bent on not surrendering to the West far more I'd argue than Ukraine currently are intent expelling the Russians. It took two atom bombs for them to realise that it was futile to persist. Ultimately the same would be true for Ukraine, as admirable as I find Zelenskyy's resolve to oust the Russians if it was a straight up choice between losing millions or allowing Russia to occupy 4 regions he'd be both mad and a bad leader not to back down. Ukraine will be counting that Russia will not do this, but a demonstration (I.e. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons) would immediately change the calculus. Zelenskyy's problem is that he knows (and deep down we all know) that nuclear weapons usage with no significant impact on NATO countries will not prompt military (nuclear or not) from NATO - just more words and perhaps some more pointy weapons like non-nuclear cruise missiles being given to Ukraine.

When the US nuked Japan, we were functionally the only nuclear power on the planet. That's the reason it worked back then, and also the reason why Russia knows it would go down very differently for them now.
 
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In a "in the moment" and "logical, cold" way I agree.
It would be in world's immediate interests to surrender those area.

I'm not sure it would, because by doing so you're effectively saying "if you use nukes, we'll give you what you want", so the next country with nuclear power who decides they want to perform a land grab, do we just let them get on with it in case they decide to use them as well?
 
I'm not sure it would, because by doing so you're effectively saying "if you use nukes, we'll give you what you want", so the next country with nuclear power who decides they want to perform a land grab, do we just let them get on with it in case they decide to use them as well?
You'd have to get Ukraine into nato for it to have any teeth.
 
So that's where I think we're not quite right if this was a non-hands tied battle between Russian and Ukraine it'd be completely different. Looking back at WWII, the Japanese where hell bent on not surrendering to the West far more I'd argue than Ukraine currently are intent expelling the Russians. It took two atom bombs for them to realise that it was futile to persist. Ultimately the same would be true for Ukraine, as admirable as I find Zelenskyy's resolve to oust the Russians if it was a straight up choice between losing millions or allowing Russia to occupy 4 regions he'd be both mad and a bad leader not to back down. Ukraine will be counting that Russia will not do this, but a demonstration (I.e. Russia using tactical nuclear weapons) would immediately change the calculus. Zelenskyy's problem is that he knows (and deep down we all know) that nuclear weapons usage with no significant impact on NATO countries will not prompt military (nuclear or not) from NATO - just more words and perhaps some more pointy weapons like non-nuclear cruise missiles being given to Ukraine.

Problem is your missing a key factor
Under the prevention of nuclear proliferation treaty (I think thats its formal name) all nuclear countries are required to support all non nuclear countries (if signatories) in the event they are attack with nuclear weapons.
If we do not honour that we will see the rest of the world looking to achieve nuclear weapons again.
The only thing that has stopped most wanting their own nukes is that defence requirement.
 
I do think Nuclear talk in this thread has just over-taken more important things, and it's just kinda zzz going around in circles about it as well.

Its since Putin recently said he'd defend Russia and the 4 stolen territories with nuclear weapons and says he isnt bluffing. So it bears addressing in some form.

As someone who grew up in the emotional.plague years of the last Cold War - constant talk of Nuke war - ive no patience for a prolonged new plague based on it.
 
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I do think Nuclear talk in this thread has just over-taken more important things, and it's just kinda zzz going around in circles about it as well.
Well things have unfortunately gotten quiet due to Ukraine having to consolidate so the only thing to really talk about per Russia's failures is it's massive elephant.
 
Pretty sure this latest news article is based on comments Biden said in a private convo that was overheard by a journalist at some fundraiser/ conference event.

People in this thread making out he has stood up on Tv publicly threatening a nuke response …

A private convo off the record is a bit more illuminating surely?
 
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