Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Prigozhin is no fool. He won't have started this unless he had solid information that a lot of the Russian military would fold or join him.
This could either move really fast with Putin removed forcibly by his own security, or could end up very bloody in Moscow.

If Putin is deposed by Prigozhin, I think the war in Ukraine will be over. The question then becomes, what happens next?
 
Rilot said:
Prigozhin is no fool. He won't have started this unless he had solid information that a lot of the Russian military would fold or join him.
This could either move really fast with Putin removed forcibly by his own security, or could end up very bloody in Moscow.

If Putin is deposed by Prigozhin, I think the war in Ukraine will be over. The question then becomes, what happens next?
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That’s my worry. In some ways a Russia run by Prigozhin will be far more dangerous and corrupt than one by Putin. Although a faint, slight hope is that Prigozhin so primarily a businessman and it would be far better for business to install Navalny as president, make nice with the West and run Russia like China
 
Rilot said:
Prigozhin is no fool. He won't have started this unless he had solid information that a lot of the Russian military would fold or join him.
This could either move really fast with Putin removed forcibly by his own security, or could end up very bloody in Moscow.

If Putin is deposed by Prigozhin, I think the war in Ukraine will be over. The question then becomes, what happens next?
Click to expand...

Was just listening on LBC. The expectation they say would be that other power plays could come from within Russia.

As I said above, totally agree, they would be out of Ukraine pronto IMO.
Its not guaranteed but IMO they would need all those forces "at home" and under control else someone could pull exactly the same trick they are pulling now.
 
Rilot said:
Prigozhin is no fool. He won't have started this unless he had solid information that a lot of the Russian military would fold or join him.
Click to expand...

Or he found out, or believed that, he was about to be assassinated or jailed or otherwise thrown under the bus. I wouldn't assume that this petty warlord is necessarily operating on the best information and at the height of rationality.

If Putin is deposed by Prigozhin, I think the war in Ukraine will be over. The question then becomes, what happens next?
Click to expand...

Prigozhin is going to be no better than Putin, but I agree he'll probably abandon the Ukrainian war. Too much else to concentrate on, and it plays well into his narrative about the war being started on false pretences, and basically being a total mistake. What happens after that I don't know. Putin spent decades subverting the levers of power, it's going to be very hard for anyone else to hold Russia together.
 
If Prighozin wins, and has any sense, he should ask for a ceasefire and start a general withdrawal from Ukraine.
He'll just as likely become another dictator though.
 
Hook said:
No, the army will just follow the new tsar in charge, no futher uprisings.
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Sky news just interviewed one of Russias previous prime ministers (2000-2004) and he basically said that a lot of the top people in Russias military hate Prigozhin. So it sounds like it would take some doing to get the entire army behind him.
 
Mr Jack said:
Or he found out, or believed that, he was about to be assassinated or jailed or otherwise thrown under the bus. I wouldn't assume that this petty warlord is necessarily operating on the best information and at the height of rationality.



Prigozhin is going to be no better than Putin, but I agree he'll probably abandon the Ukrainian war. Too much else to concentrate on, and it plays well into his narrative about the war being started on false pretences, and basically being a total mistake. What happens after that I don't know. Putin spent decades subverting the levers of power, it's going to be very hard for anyone else to hold Russia together.
Click to expand...

Putin's lost his chance on getting rid of Prigozhin, he's got too many loyalists himself now.
 
Semple said:
Sky news just interviewed one of Russias previous prime ministers (2000-2004) and he basically said that a lot of the top people in Russias military hate Prigozhin. So it sounds like it would take some doing to get the entire army behind him.
Click to expand...

The top people are getting removed anyway, it's whether he can get division-level leaders behind him that really matters.

Looking at the maps, I wonder whether Wagner are basically putting themselves into the middle of a pincer movement if Putin pulls his forces out of Ukraine.
 
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