Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Man of Honour
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A few years old, but still relevant. If timestamp doesn't work then go to 34:20

https://youtu.be/MIdUSqsz0Io?t=2055

I do love strategist/analysts with that kind of sense of humour and insight.

EDIT: Also his take on Europe and the UK in the questions at the end is interesting - and demonstrates how silly Brexit was in that the UK still had the flexibility and autonomy to exist along side the EU system and benefit from it when the EU was down, in a way not possible from the outside, with some caution needed for the future.

Also "over a long weekend Sweden could probably build a nuke or two" cracks me up.
 
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Soldato
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There was the photos of it being transported back over the border
The Ukrainian rebels smuggling something out of their country doesn't explain how they got it which was the point I was making (or if it was even the one people were looking for, as it only had one missile missing and they had fired at least two).

Actually, having just re-read the post you selectively quoted it even explains that in the post, you should have read the whole thing :p


Dunno what is going on with Putin
The dude is 70 this year, may actually be starting to go senile. Maybe in his mind his demands are reasonable, or he doesn't realise the west sees through his crap.
 
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Caporegime
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The Ukrainian rebels smuggling something out of their country doesn't explain how they got it which was the point I was making

Like @Tefal said, there were images of it going there and back to Russia again:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44235402
Wilbert Paulissen, a Dutch official from the Joint Investigation Team (JIT), told reporters: "All the vehicles in a convoy carrying the missile were part of the Russian armed forces."

He restated the JIT's conclusion that the plane had been destroyed by a Russian-made Buk missile, adding that it had been supplied by the country's 53rd anti-aircraft brigade in Kursk.

At a news conference in the Dutch city of Utrecht, the investigators also showed social media pictures which they said traced the route the missile convoy had taken to reach eastern Ukraine.

More evidence mentioned here too such as phone intercepts:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-...he-separatists-linked-to-the-downing-of-mh17/
 
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Putin's smart. He won't move into Ukraine unless he's confident the west won't respond militarily. The gamble would be any 'soft' consequences are worth the political gain.

From the west's pov this is more concerning as Ukraine represents a step up over Georgia & Crimea.
 
Caporegime
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The west won't respond militarily, aside from perhaps trainers etc.. attached to Ukrainian forces.

What you might however see is an insurgency, presumably, Russia doesn't invade the entire country (though still possible), maybe Eastern Ukraine or parts thereof, the West could fund and arm insurgents and could allow them to train and resupply in neighbouring NATO countries etc..

Economic sanctions + and insurgency, make it as costly as possible for Russia if they do decide to act aggressively and invade.
 
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Curious how things play out if the West doesn't respond militarily - while not a close analogue of WW2 era invasion of Poland for various reasons it could be seen as a sign of weakness and encourage Putin to push harder and further.

I'm still far from convinced Russia has the forces to serious consider it though - even if everything hitting OSINT was invasion prep (which it isn't) it is still far short of what it would take if Ukraine even put up half a fight.
 
Caporegime
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I remain convinced that the secondary victim of disproportionate action regarding any invasion of Ukraine on false grounds will be Taiwan who will have no choice but to seek other measures for protection since trusting the US simply wouldn't be an option.
 
Soldato
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I remain convinced that the secondary victim of disproportionate action regarding any invasion of Ukraine on false grounds will be Taiwan who will have no choice but to seek other measures for protection since trusting the US simply wouldn't be an option.

China and Taiwan especially will be watching closely.

Well the entire Pacific region etc will be as what's to stop China if we don't help Taiwan.

Former Ukrainian president headed back as well, will this be some play by Russia?
 
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China and Taiwan especially will be watching closely.

Well the entire Pacific region etc will be as what's to stop China if we don't help Taiwan.

Former Ukrainian president headed back as well, will this be some play by Russia?

Having both Russia and China ****** off at the same time would be quite the mess. As if the pandemic and other events going on in the world wasn't enough.
 
Soldato
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Like @Tefal said, there were images of it going there and back to Russia again
Okay I'm assuming this isn't a strawman and maybe you didn't read the whole conversation, but my original point was that no proof has ever been presented that the rebels used a Russian supplied Buk and not one of their own Buks. Obviously we know it was statistically likely to have been a Russian one as the rebels only had half a dozen or so and the Russians are rumoured to have sent dozens more into the area but we don't actually know it for sure and probably never will. Not that it's that important as what happened wouldn't have without Russia's decision to back the eastern rebels, so Putin and Russia are definitely culpable.


Economic sanctions + and insurgency, make it as costly as possible for Russia if they do decide to act aggressively and invade.
So basically the exact same way we responded when they invaded Afghanistan, great, that played out real well in the long run, especially our boy Osama xD


I'm still far from convinced Russia has the forces to serious consider it though - even if everything hitting OSINT was invasion prep (which it isn't) it is still far short of what it would take if Ukraine even put up half a fight.
Not sure what you've been reading but Russia + Ukrainian rebels vs Ukrainian loyalist forces would be a straight up face roll. Wales would stand a better chance against England :p

To put it in perspective, back when Crimea seceded and re-joined Russia the military analysts were estimating Putin could take Kiev in under two weeks.


I remain convinced that the secondary victim of disproportionate action regarding any invasion of Ukraine on false grounds will be Taiwan who will have no choice but to seek other measures for protection since trusting the US simply wouldn't be an option.
Worst case scenario, Russia and China coordinate the timing of their invasions. The west simply wouldn't have the resources to respond to both at the same time, and that's assuming the US would even commit resources to fight Russia and/or China in defence of a non NATO ally (whether they would do so in defence of an actual NATO ally has always been a subject of great contention).
 
Caporegime
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Okay I'm assuming this isn't a strawman and maybe you didn't read the whole conversation, but my original point was that no proof has ever been presented that the rebels used a Russian supplied Buk and not one of their own Buks. Obviously we know it was statistically likely to have been a Russian one as the rebels only had half a dozen or so and the Russians are rumoured to have sent dozens more into the area but we don't actually know it for sure and probably never will. Not that it's that important as what happened wouldn't have without Russia's decision to back the eastern rebels, so Putin and Russia are definitely culpable.

Aside from all the evidence from the investigation team? Images of it going across the border and back, the telephone intercepts etc..?
 
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Worst case scenario, Russia and China coordinate the timing of their invasions. The west simply wouldn't have the resources to respond to both at the same time, and that's assuming the US would even commit resources to fight Russia and/or China in defence of a non NATO ally (whether they would do so in defence of an actual NATO ally has always been a subject of great contention).

Pretty sure is Russia and China were to co-ordinate together Japan would be very interested considering its disputed islands with both nations.
 
Soldato
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Okay I'm assuming this isn't a strawman and maybe you didn't read the whole conversation, but my original point was that no proof has ever been presented that the rebels used a Russian supplied Buk and not one of their own Buks. Obviously we know it was statistically likely to have been a Russian one as the rebels only had half a dozen or so and the Russians are rumoured to have sent dozens more into the area but we don't actually know it for sure and probably never will. Not that it's that important as what happened wouldn't have without Russia's decision to back the eastern rebels, so Putin and Russia are definitely culpable.



So basically the exact same way we responded when they invaded Afghanistan, great, that played out real well in the long run, especially our boy Osama xD



Not sure what you've been reading but Russia + Ukrainian rebels vs Ukrainian loyalist forces would be a straight up face roll. Wales would stand a better chance against England :p

To put it in perspective, back when Crimea seceded and re-joined Russia the military analysts were estimating Putin could take Kiev in under two weeks.



Worst case scenario, Russia and China coordinate the timing of their invasions. The west simply wouldn't have the resources to respond to both at the same time, and that's assuming the US would even commit resources to fight Russia and/or China in defence of a non NATO ally (whether they would do so in defence of an actual NATO ally has always been a subject of great contention).

It was russian, they had a big inquiry and all that jazz where all the evidence showed it was 100% russian, so unless you believe the lies of Putin then I'm not sure why think it's a grey area in any way.
 
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