Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

Status
Not open for further replies.
The Ukrainian rebels smuggling something out of their country doesn't explain how they got it which was the point I was making

Like @Tefal said, there were images of it going there and back to Russia again:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-44235402
Wilbert Paulissen, a Dutch official from the Joint Investigation Team (JIT), told reporters: "All the vehicles in a convoy carrying the missile were part of the Russian armed forces."

He restated the JIT's conclusion that the plane had been destroyed by a Russian-made Buk missile, adding that it had been supplied by the country's 53rd anti-aircraft brigade in Kursk.

At a news conference in the Dutch city of Utrecht, the investigators also showed social media pictures which they said traced the route the missile convoy had taken to reach eastern Ukraine.

More evidence mentioned here too such as phone intercepts:
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-...he-separatists-linked-to-the-downing-of-mh17/
 
Putin's smart. He won't move into Ukraine unless he's confident the west won't respond militarily. The gamble would be any 'soft' consequences are worth the political gain.

From the west's pov this is more concerning as Ukraine represents a step up over Georgia & Crimea.
 
The west won't respond militarily, aside from perhaps trainers etc.. attached to Ukrainian forces.

What you might however see is an insurgency, presumably, Russia doesn't invade the entire country (though still possible), maybe Eastern Ukraine or parts thereof, the West could fund and arm insurgents and could allow them to train and resupply in neighbouring NATO countries etc..

Economic sanctions + and insurgency, make it as costly as possible for Russia if they do decide to act aggressively and invade.
 
Curious how things play out if the West doesn't respond militarily - while not a close analogue of WW2 era invasion of Poland for various reasons it could be seen as a sign of weakness and encourage Putin to push harder and further.

I'm still far from convinced Russia has the forces to serious consider it though - even if everything hitting OSINT was invasion prep (which it isn't) it is still far short of what it would take if Ukraine even put up half a fight.
 
I remain convinced that the secondary victim of disproportionate action regarding any invasion of Ukraine on false grounds will be Taiwan who will have no choice but to seek other measures for protection since trusting the US simply wouldn't be an option.
 
I remain convinced that the secondary victim of disproportionate action regarding any invasion of Ukraine on false grounds will be Taiwan who will have no choice but to seek other measures for protection since trusting the US simply wouldn't be an option.

China and Taiwan especially will be watching closely.

Well the entire Pacific region etc will be as what's to stop China if we don't help Taiwan.

Former Ukrainian president headed back as well, will this be some play by Russia?
 
China and Taiwan especially will be watching closely.

Well the entire Pacific region etc will be as what's to stop China if we don't help Taiwan.

Former Ukrainian president headed back as well, will this be some play by Russia?

Having both Russia and China ****** off at the same time would be quite the mess. As if the pandemic and other events going on in the world wasn't enough.
 
Like @Tefal said, there were images of it going there and back to Russia again
Okay I'm assuming this isn't a strawman and maybe you didn't read the whole conversation, but my original point was that no proof has ever been presented that the rebels used a Russian supplied Buk and not one of their own Buks. Obviously we know it was statistically likely to have been a Russian one as the rebels only had half a dozen or so and the Russians are rumoured to have sent dozens more into the area but we don't actually know it for sure and probably never will. Not that it's that important as what happened wouldn't have without Russia's decision to back the eastern rebels, so Putin and Russia are definitely culpable.


Economic sanctions + and insurgency, make it as costly as possible for Russia if they do decide to act aggressively and invade.
So basically the exact same way we responded when they invaded Afghanistan, great, that played out real well in the long run, especially our boy Osama xD


I'm still far from convinced Russia has the forces to serious consider it though - even if everything hitting OSINT was invasion prep (which it isn't) it is still far short of what it would take if Ukraine even put up half a fight.
Not sure what you've been reading but Russia + Ukrainian rebels vs Ukrainian loyalist forces would be a straight up face roll. Wales would stand a better chance against England :P

To put it in perspective, back when Crimea seceded and re-joined Russia the military analysts were estimating Putin could take Kiev in under two weeks.


I remain convinced that the secondary victim of disproportionate action regarding any invasion of Ukraine on false grounds will be Taiwan who will have no choice but to seek other measures for protection since trusting the US simply wouldn't be an option.
Worst case scenario, Russia and China coordinate the timing of their invasions. The west simply wouldn't have the resources to respond to both at the same time, and that's assuming the US would even commit resources to fight Russia and/or China in defence of a non NATO ally (whether they would do so in defence of an actual NATO ally has always been a subject of great contention).
 
Okay I'm assuming this isn't a strawman and maybe you didn't read the whole conversation, but my original point was that no proof has ever been presented that the rebels used a Russian supplied Buk and not one of their own Buks. Obviously we know it was statistically likely to have been a Russian one as the rebels only had half a dozen or so and the Russians are rumoured to have sent dozens more into the area but we don't actually know it for sure and probably never will. Not that it's that important as what happened wouldn't have without Russia's decision to back the eastern rebels, so Putin and Russia are definitely culpable.

Aside from all the evidence from the investigation team? Images of it going across the border and back, the telephone intercepts etc..?
 
Worst case scenario, Russia and China coordinate the timing of their invasions. The west simply wouldn't have the resources to respond to both at the same time, and that's assuming the US would even commit resources to fight Russia and/or China in defence of a non NATO ally (whether they would do so in defence of an actual NATO ally has always been a subject of great contention).

Pretty sure is Russia and China were to co-ordinate together Japan would be very interested considering its disputed islands with both nations.
 
Okay I'm assuming this isn't a strawman and maybe you didn't read the whole conversation, but my original point was that no proof has ever been presented that the rebels used a Russian supplied Buk and not one of their own Buks. Obviously we know it was statistically likely to have been a Russian one as the rebels only had half a dozen or so and the Russians are rumoured to have sent dozens more into the area but we don't actually know it for sure and probably never will. Not that it's that important as what happened wouldn't have without Russia's decision to back the eastern rebels, so Putin and Russia are definitely culpable.



So basically the exact same way we responded when they invaded Afghanistan, great, that played out real well in the long run, especially our boy Osama xD



Not sure what you've been reading but Russia + Ukrainian rebels vs Ukrainian loyalist forces would be a straight up face roll. Wales would stand a better chance against England :p

To put it in perspective, back when Crimea seceded and re-joined Russia the military analysts were estimating Putin could take Kiev in under two weeks.



Worst case scenario, Russia and China coordinate the timing of their invasions. The west simply wouldn't have the resources to respond to both at the same time, and that's assuming the US would even commit resources to fight Russia and/or China in defence of a non NATO ally (whether they would do so in defence of an actual NATO ally has always been a subject of great contention).

It was russian, they had a big inquiry and all that jazz where all the evidence showed it was 100% russian, so unless you believe the lies of Putin then I'm not sure why think it's a grey area in any way.
 
Why do we always get involved. Just keep the f out.


Because it's in Europe, Putin is mad and last time we let a dictator get his own way it ended in ww2plus they and all the other threatened nations actually really want and need us this time


It's madness really, no good can come out of poking the Russian bear.

Balls, we are poking no bear, Russia is threating invasion of the Ukraine and add to that Estonia/Latvia/Poland/Sweden/Finland and Latvia are under Putin's gaze and medling.

No one but Russia (Putin to be specific) is at fault for this mess, no one.
 
Not sure what you've been reading but Russia + Ukrainian rebels vs Ukrainian loyalist forces would be a straight up face roll. Wales would stand a better chance against England :p

To put it in perspective, back when Crimea seceded and re-joined Russia the military analysts were estimating Putin could take Kiev in under two weeks.

To actually invade a country on a large scale takes a lot more forces than to defend it, unless the defenders don't put up much of a fight for whatever reason.

Ukraine's military is not the same military of 2014 and you'll have people fighting for their survival versus a force made up of a significant number of reserve and conscripted forces - it is never pretty.

There is a difference between what Russia *could* do on paper and what they can realistically field for an invasion of Ukraine - there is no indication they are going "all in" and switching to a wartime economy and industry, only pulling a limited amount of mothballed stock out, they aren't going to be depleting some of their core central forces and those covering other borders beyond a certain point, etc.

Worst case scenario, Russia and China coordinate the timing of their invasions. The west simply wouldn't have the resources to respond to both at the same time, and that's assuming the US would even commit resources to fight Russia and/or China in defence of a non NATO ally (whether they would do so in defence of an actual NATO ally has always been a subject of great contention).

The only problem here in terms of military resources is the lack of preparedness for such an eventuality, lazy complacency, cost saving and naivety which sees equipment fielded without its full combat package, etc. the West has a vastly higher level of professional soldiers and built in combat experience and in the real world still retains a significant technical edge in most areas in terms of reliability of high end technical capabilities to perform in a combat situation.

China's command structure also puts them at a military disadvantage vs the West in most situations as individual units lack for autonomy and rely heavily on chain of command for the smallest of things.

I can't see the West rushing to defend anything, even another NATO ally, until push comes to shove though - perspectives are far too short sighted and there is some denial as to the reality of it same as with COVID - even when it was happening there was a lot of denial and people, even governments, in denial.
 
Last edited:
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom