Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Well Russia launched a chemical attack on the UK, I'd call that an act of war.

We never launched an invasion into Belarus as recompense however, maybe we should?
 
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We're not going to war over Ukraine. We will sanction Russia to its heels and in return they will bend the knee to Chinese. So basically we'll gift China a resource and military capable/rich Russia and create even more problems. Thing is, it seems like we're not looking that far enough in the West. We should have done everything we could to pull Russia from China and we had golden opportunities from 91 all way to 2014.

We're laying foundation for super steroid China right now. Putin and Russia today are peanuts to whats about to be given birth to.
 
We're not going to war over Ukraine. We will sanction Russia to its heels and in return they will bend the knee to Chinese. So basically we'll gift China a resource and military capable/rich Russia and create even more problems. Thing is, it seems like we're not looking that far enough in the West. We should have done everything we could to pull Russia from China and we had golden opportunities from 91 all way to 2014.

We're laying foundation for super steroid China right now. Putin and Russia today are peanuts to whats about to be given birth to.

Russia and China don't make for happy bed fellows despite the face they put on when in opposition to the West. Especially these days China is pushing towards a more dominant approach in world affairs and Russia won't just roll over for them unlike some of the smaller countries who are now finding out the realities of getting in bed with China.

The Russian people generally have a lot of fatigue with the whole situation and aren't buying into the propaganda and anti-Ukraine rhetoric anything like as much as people might think, though there are still plenty who don't have enough access to wider information to have an informed opinion. Broadly across Russia public support there for military action at the moment is at a low with people more concerned about pressing domestic issues they won't so easily be deflected from.

A lot of the current Russian military movements are for show with a lot of making sure they are visibly seen - but that doesn't mean an invasion isn't in the offering.

I'm not sure what Putin is up to at the moment - he is usually pretty shrewd at balancing military posturing for political ends but the current situation seems to be backing him into a corner - which worries me a little that he intends to actually go through with it this time using the pretext of "you forced my hand". On the other hand while recent movements have allowed for the build up of equipment to the kind of levels needed for the first phase of an invasion the man-power is still woefully short unless they expect Ukraine to do little more than put up a token fight or roll over entirely.
 
You're a bit dim aren't you? Russia used a nerve agent on British soil, murdered an innocent British civilian and ruined the life of a British police officer.
it wasn#t even an isolated incident though Russia has been doing that for decades... must be at least 5of them in the UK that we know of

I bet Russia would go ape if America poisoned snowdown and a few innocent Russian civs died as a result of touching door handles etc

I'm not sure what Putin is up to at the moment - he is usually pretty shrewd at balancing military posturing for political ends but the current situation seems to be backing him into a corner -
Bet he's terrified that he won't be able to stay in power for much longer and he must have tons of enemies circling like sharks, he has to put on the strong man act in a pitiful attempt to stay in power it seems.

let's not pretend he's actually in power because of votes that aren't rigged
 
I've heard that sort of argument before and it just strikes me as being complete BS, Putin knows full well the flippin EU isn't going to mount an invasion.

It's like saying Poland should be worried about a German invasion right now or we should be worried about the Spanish and French navies etc... All countries in Europe have been at war or faced the threat of invasion during the same time periods, there isn't anything special about Russia there.

[...]

They've kept domestic opposition in check so far in part with control of the media, corrupt elections etc.. but a stronger, pro-Western opposition is a possible outcome from Ukraine going that way. Also the revolutions, they're **** scared of what they saw in Ukraine in the Orange revolution in 2004 and the Maidan revolution in 2014 (that's what triggered the military reaction really), that's the other risk if the Russia population starts becoming more pro-Western, influenced by neighbours, they might still be able to fiddle election results but if you have a mass of popular support for change within the population then rigged elections aren't always enough, that sort of revolution is a big risk for them too.

Everything else seems like a weak excuse in comparison, it's a corrupt dictatorship and corrupt dictatorships are especially worried about being overthrown/kicked out of power.

See this is what Russia is paranoid about, not the silly argument about Putin being paranoid about being invaded but mass civil unrest. and the risk of being overthrown

Look how quickly this just started in Kazakhstan, the entire cabinet has resigned, this is what serious insurrection looks like. They might well put it down in coming days (Belarus managed to) but the risk is there for regimes like that and if/when they fall and become more democratic Russia gets rather more nervous about the potential among it's own citizens or among it's own Republics potentially breaking away etc...

https://thehill.com/policy/internat...-resigns-as-demonstrators-set-fire-to-capital

All Cabinet members resigned in response to the outburst, but protesters still left a path of destruction. Police were seen using water cannons and stun grenades against demonstrators.

Almaty’s police chief, Kanat Taymerdenov, said in a statement 120 vehicles have been burned, 500 civilians have been injured and dozens of businesses have been destroyed.

A two-week curfew, including a ban on mass gatherings, has been implemented for the city and surrounding areas.
 
Things seem to be moving along...

In the last few days:
Failed talks with NATO and Russia
More cases of 'Havana syndrome' in europe
Large cyber attack against Ukrainian government
US announcing they have intelligence that Russia is planning a false flag attack to be used as an excuse to invade Ukraine
 
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-59998988

Russia is plotting to stage acts of provocation to create a pretext to invade Ukraine, a US official has said.

A Pentagon spokesman said Russian operatives were planning a "false-flag" operation, to allow Moscow to accuse Ukraine of preparing an attack. Russia has dismissed the claims.

It comes after a week of US-Russian talks aimed at defusing tensions.

Ukraine on Friday accused Russia of being behind a cyber-attack on dozens of official websites.

Before the sites went offline, a message appeared warning Ukrainians to "prepare for the worst". Access to most of the sites was restored within hours.

The US and Nato condemned the attack and have offered support to Ukraine. Russia has not commented on the hack.

It's just a big pantomine really isn't it
 
Well they have moved divisions from the border regions of China westwards, threatened Sweden and Finland and want NATO out of every ex USSR country including Poland as part of thier unconditional demands.

Also Sweden is now reinforcing Gotland with troops and armour after the Russian influx of landing craft and troops into kaliningrad.

Putin, crazy or pretending to be crazy, that is the question.

Let's hope it's a show that doesn't go live
 
Putin, crazy or pretending to be crazy, that is the question.

I don't think he's crazy. I think it's worse than that. He's completely sane but can see the end of his 'reign' on the horizon and is prepared to cement his place in history by attempting to take back what the Soviets lost, and if that fails and leaves a legacy of absolute chaos behind, then so be it. I don't think he gives a **** either way.
 
Putin, crazy or pretending to be crazy, that is the question.

Let's hope it's a show that doesn't go live

Dunno what is going on with Putin - lately been talking a lot about Ukraine framing it in the context of say how Texas is the US, as Ukraine to Russia "USSR" and a lot of talk about how the US/NATO is forcing his hand due to the security position. But his body language is nervous not his normal calm.

When dealing with stupid things said by journalists he is quite bluntly shutting them down instead of as in the past where there was a more jovial side to the lecture they got on how wrong they were. I get the impression whatever course of action he is intent on taking his mind is already set.

However even if every single movement noted by open source intel, etc. was building up for an invasion the forces are still way below what would realistically be required unless they expected Ukraine to just roll over.
 
Apparently two russian ships of the coast of Sweden , next to a couple of nuclear stations that just so happen to have had drones flying above them at the same time.......

looking to make every one up there paranoid, or a deadly lesson for not listening to mighty Putin.
 
A few years old, but still relevant. If timestamp doesn't work then go to 34:20

https://youtu.be/MIdUSqsz0Io?t=2055

I do love strategist/analysts with that kind of sense of humour and insight.

EDIT: Also his take on Europe and the UK in the questions at the end is interesting - and demonstrates how silly Brexit was in that the UK still had the flexibility and autonomy to exist along side the EU system and benefit from it when the EU was down, in a way not possible from the outside, with some caution needed for the future.

Also "over a long weekend Sweden could probably build a nuke or two" cracks me up.
 
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There was the photos of it being transported back over the border
The Ukrainian rebels smuggling something out of their country doesn't explain how they got it which was the point I was making (or if it was even the one people were looking for, as it only had one missile missing and they had fired at least two).

Actually, having just re-read the post you selectively quoted it even explains that in the post, you should have read the whole thing :p


Dunno what is going on with Putin
The dude is 70 this year, may actually be starting to go senile. Maybe in his mind his demands are reasonable, or he doesn't realise the west sees through his crap.
 
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