2012 predictions

[JRS]

If you want to talk stats, what would be interesting are the statistics not for podium finishes, but for race wins, in the last few years (in the last 3 seasons). My guess is that the race wins, for McLaren are biased towards the 2nd half of the season, AFTER BrawnGP or RBR have gained an almost unassailable lead.

2011:

First 10 races - 3
Last 9 races - 4

2010:

First 10 races - 4
Last 9 races - 1

2009:

First 9 races - 0
Last 8 races - 2

2008:

First 9 races - 3
Last 9 races - 2

2007:

First 9 races - 4
Last 8 races - 4

2006:

no wins

So in the last six seasons - twice they've one more in the first half, twice they won more in the second half, once they won equal amounts of races and once they didn't win a single race.

 

[Glaucus]

Wrong thread.

 

[sunama]

Its 2009, 10, 11 that I want to look at.
These are the seasons where testing was curtailed, so various teams introduced different methods to combat the lack of in-season testing.

Lets look at McLaren for these 3 seasons, using your stats:

2011:

First 10 races - 3
Last 9 races - 4

2010:

First 10 races - 4
Last 9 races - 1

2009:

First 9 races - 0
Last 8 races - 2

Total:
first half: 3+4+0 = 7
last half: 4+1+2 = 7

Now, if those numbers are correct, it would appear that McLaren do tend to be consistent across the season (using those stats as a very rough guide), with respect to race wins only.

 

[FrankJH]

There is absolutely no point in coming in 2nd in every race of the year if Vettel is coming in first place in every race.
.

Do you think McLaren would care if they "only" won the Constructors title by coming in 2nd and 3rd most races and winning (lets say ) 6 or so races .....as baring in mind Webber's level against Vettel, and the liklihood of Alonso taking points off Webber too (or switch it around to Ferrari instead of McLaren)

Of course each team wants to win as many races as possible - but it must be possible (with better reliability / less team errors / crashes) to average a better score with regular podiums and hopefully the odd 1- 2 thrown in , given that MW will more likely average 3rd at best, more likely 4th or 5th......

I think there is EVERY point from the team's point of view to aim for 2nd place (plus with Newey's renowned packaging skills) trying to stress Vettel's car from 2nd might not be a bad ploy (Vettel himself if pushed can crack and make a mistake occasionally also)

Worth considering - no?

edit - Actually this would only work for McLaren, simply because I cant see Massa being that close to Alonso in a good enough car to do this, whereas Lewis and Jenson are much more likely to be evenly matched (if the car is capable of course).


edit - Grosjean confirmed at Renault

 

[sunama]

Frank, if you are a leading team (RBR, McL, Ferrari) and in the Winter you "planning" to come in 2nd or 3rd, then you have already lost the battle.

Did you not see what Vettel has just done?

When you are the size of McLaren and Ferrari with such big money invested, you shouldn't be aiming to come 2nd or 3rd. If this is the case, Vettel is going to wipe the floor with you.

Before the advent of Vettel/RBR, I would agree that coming in 2nd/3rd, consistently throughout the season would net you a championship, but this is no longer the case.

2nd or 3rd will get you beaten.

Also consider that RBR may be even further ahead of the rest, in 2012. If this happens, Vettel could conceivably win an even higher percentage of the races, with Webber getting 2nd place more often (due to the car advantage).

As a team planner, if I were at McL or Ferrari, I would NEVER plan to come in 2nd or 3rd place. The thought wouldn't even cross my mind. Winning is the target and if we slip down to 2nd or 3rd, I will reluctantly accept this.

 

[mattx2]

Any team wanting to beat RBR must take any risk necessary and be prepared to break the rules...and ride with an illegal car until they get caught and are forced to make alterations. I just don't believe that McLaren are capable of doing this, due to their typically British approach

Wait what the team with the biggest fine for cheating is too British to cheat....

 

[Mr Jack]

Podiums simply aren't good enough in this day and age of RBR dominance.
What McLaren, Ferrari or any other team need to do is aim to beat RBR, ie. win.

Absolutely. McLaren and Ferrari need to come up with better cars next year if they're to match Red Bull. But surely this is pretty much an oxymoron?

My point is simply that your oft repeated claim that McLaren tend to field a bad car at the start of the season and improve as it goes on is not supported by the statistics.

 

[sunama]

OK, I agree that the stats do show that McLaren perform evenly throughout the season.

However, without Vettel, if a driver could consistently finish 2nd or 3rd, he would probably win the title. Vettel/RBR have come along and changed the rules of the game. Vettel appears to be capable of winning every race he starts. This means that if you want to win the title, you must go for the win. Finishing 2nd (probably behind Vettel, in a race), will probably mean that you won't win the title.

For McLaren this is even more difficult as they appear to have 2 drivers who are now quite evenly matched, so if they ever do get tracks which suit their car, it is reasonable to expect the wins to be evenly distributed between their 2 drivers.

It may be harsh, but perhaps McLaren need to make the decision to back 1 driver, from race 10 onwards. Give both drivers advanced notice of this strategy and let them fight for the first 9 races. After that, the other driver must help maximise the other driver's points. This is unlikely to happen though.

Anyway, testing shall begin in a few months time (February is it?), so until then, we shall have to wait.

 

[englishpremier]

This is all very well, but remember a team's major concern is the Constructors title. The Driver's title is just a side show for them.

 

[Mr Jack]

However, without Vettel, if a driver could consistently finish 2nd or 3rd, he would probably win the title. Vettel/RBR have come along and changed the rules of the game. Vettel appears to be capable of winning every race he starts. This means that if you want to win the title, you must go for the win. Finishing 2nd (probably behind Vettel, in a race), will probably mean that you won't win the title.

I don't think Vettel's dominance is a game changer; it's just been a season where driver and car have combined to achieve complete dominance. That's nothing new - see Schumacher in 2004, Hill in 1996 or Mansell in 1992.

I also don't agree that there's ever been a time when coming 2nd or 3rd consistently would win you a world championship. Doing that means, by definition, that there are other, better driver/car combos out there who will likely take the championship instead. World championships have always been won by drivers who are regularly competing for wins.

Do McLaren and Ferrari need to step up their game to match Red Bull (and particularly Vettel)? Yes, they do. But there's nothing new about this, it's just the particular players that have changed.

 

[sunama]

What is significant is not the fact that Vettel won the title, but the way he won it. RBR are at the top of their game. Vettel is showing that he is basically as good as any other driver out there and possibly better than Alonso.

Best car + best driver (young age) = dominance for many years.

Its the "dominance for many years" which is the problem that I have.

The last time I saw anything which resembled the current situation was in 2000, when MSc went on to win 5 titles in a row. It is this sort of dominance which I do not want to see repeated. Given that Vettel is still young and potentially still improving, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that he can go on to win the next 5 titles in a row. This was never the case for MSc in 2000, due to his age.

Vettel has reached the same stage in his career as MSc, about 5 years sooner.

Taking all the above into consideration, Vettel's current dominance, is absolutely a game changer and no longer can a driver who hopes to win a title, be satisfied if he finishes 2nd or 3rd. In 2012, if you don't win, you will lose ground in the title race (to Vettel).

This is in stark contrast to the 80s when Prost was top dog and would never worry about winning a single race, but was always focussed on finishing in the points, to aid him in the title race. He gave many interviews where he states that the title race is more important than winning a single race. No driver will be able to say this in 2012.

The last time we were in this scenario was in 2004, but at least then, other drivers knew that MSc was getting old and had already peaked. The same cannot be said for Vettel.

The rules of the game have changed, my friend.

 

[englishpremier]

Don't forget that there is a big rule change for 2014.

That will most likely see a change in the status quo. Additionally it will bring with it more retirements (initially) and most likely some controversy.

 

[Mr Men]

Vettel is showing that he is basically as good as any other driver out there and possibly better than Alonso.

LOL

I reckon Alonso would have won 2 titles in the RB beating Vettel no problem.

 

[.Lethal]

Indeed. A 4 team fight is better than a 3 team fight. Likewise, Kimi in the Renault up there too would be good.

[pedantic mode] Do Mercedes use the AMG brand in F1? [/pedantic mode]

Kimi? Wishful thinking imo.

I don't know if it's the accent or what, but Alonso has come across very well this last season - patient, workmanlike, teamplaying. Time will tell though if he remains so when the Ferrari isn't up there for another season or two.

You mean now that he's in a team as #1 and with Massa taking his place as #2

Alonso knows if anyone is going to beat RB it will be Ferrari or McLaren, and alonso has burned his bridges with McLaren.

LOL

I reckon Alonso would have won 2 titles in the RB beating Vettel no problem.

Who knows, would be awfully close!

 

[FrankJH]

Frank, if you are a leading team (RBR, McL, Ferrari) and in the Winter you "planning" to come in 2nd or 3rd, then you have already lost the battle.

Did you not see what Vettel has just done?

When you are the size of McLaren and Ferrari with such big money invested, you shouldn't be aiming to come 2nd or 3rd. If this is the case, Vettel is going to wipe the floor with you.

Before the advent of Vettel/RBR, I would agree that coming in 2nd/3rd, consistently throughout the season would net you a championship, but this is no longer the case.

2nd or 3rd will get you beaten.

Also consider that RBR may be even further ahead of the rest, in 2012. If this happens, Vettel could conceivably win an even higher percentage of the races, with Webber getting 2nd place more often (due to the car advantage).

As a team planner, if I were at McL or Ferrari, I would NEVER plan to come in 2nd or 3rd place. The thought wouldn't even cross my mind. Winning is the target and if we slip down to 2nd or 3rd, I will reluctantly accept this.

1) I dont believe I ever stated McLaren would PLAN on coming 2nd/3rd but if thats what happened (with aprox the same number of wins throughout the year ) then so be it - especially as it WOULD in most circumstances net the Constuctors title - admittedly this relies on other teams pushing MW further down the results,

RBR may be further ahead, they may not be - one thiing for SURE is that McLaren's 2nd driver will end up with more points (and probably a lot more points) than Lewis did this season.

Its as likely that McLaren (and Ferrari /Merc / Renault etc) will be closer to RBR (and as proven previously McLaren are probably amongst the best at developing their car mid season) as they will be further away - its just guesswork at this point in time

Depends what you are aiming for winning - as we all know the team want to win the Constructors title first and foremost , and this relies on good results from both cars throughout the year......one thing that McLaren are uniquely suited for given their driver line up for next year.

Of course everyone celebrates a race win when it comes about - thats about motivation for the next race as much as anything and keeping the podiums etc rolling in - but I can gaurentee you if any team "only " won 6 races, but had such consistant results as to win the Constructors title, the team would be absolutely delighted (while saying for the camera's "we are sorry we didnt win the drivers title" blah blah blah)

Also note that between the two McLaren cars there were......5 retirements without even considering the points dropped from non-terminal mechanical issue related results - would be fair to say these would be worth a good 50 points - conservatively - from the team's point of view (not to mention, while not every result, this would have reduced RBR's winning total as well) - so the team winning margin would have been pretty close


given the performance level differences between SV and MW this year - from Mark averaging 4th (14 points /race with quick calc) for most races to getting 2nd 's just from himself and the car getting that much better is virtually impossible imo (no disrespet meant to Mark, he is in an impossible position)



However good Vettel is (and he is undoubtedly incredibly good in a insanely good car) if anyone - be it Alonso , McLaren boys or one of the other drivers/teams on the day is able to push him - SV may well crack and make that one little mistake (even ignoring Brazil where he had a mini off while coaxing the gear box after the titles were won , and just considering last season and ignoring any other offs / mistakes previously, IF anyone is capable of pushing him hard / relentlessly , he may not get it all his own way.

McLaren and Ferrari need to come to an agreement.....Ferrari go for outright one lap pace to aim for pole's and leading the race initally and McLaren go for race pace and economical use of tyres (or vice versa) so SV is much more back in the pack from the start rather than able to do pole laps from the start of every race.......wishful thinking I know lol

It may be harsh, but perhaps McLaren need to make the decision to back 1 driver, from race 10 onwards. Give both drivers advanced notice of this strategy and let them fight for the first 9 races. After that, the other driver must help maximise the other driver's points. This is unlikely to happen though.

Neither driver would agree to it either (and rightly so) - Imagine , for instance, LH is ahead by 20 points at race 9 , but then has two or three bad results in the next 3 races so JB is ahead, with your agreement in place the team would have to back the driver not leading the championship for the team.(leading upto potentially pivotal time in the title(s) race) ....bad motivation all round imo

 

[Mr Jack]

*RESURRECT THREAD*

Anyone, want to update their predictions now that testing is done.

This was mine:

I don't think Red Bull will have such an advantage next year but I think it would take a brave man to bet against them taking another championship.

As such, I predict Red Bull will win the Constructors, and Vettel will take a third consecutive title. Hamilton will take second, and it will be decided with a race to go. Ferrari's money will let them cling on to third faced with a resurgent Mercedes. Back down the grid, Kimi's return to F1 will do nothing to restore William's flagging fortunes and Force India will take another step forward. Lotus will finally manage to mix it with the back of the longer standing teams. Kova will be spoken of in connection with a seat at a top team having restored his tarnished reputation by repeatedly putting that Lotus above its natural position.

Kubica will return to a Renault seat but it will not be the triumphant return we all hope for. A combination of physical and mental damage will stop him performing to his former standards. In the other seat, Senna will grow into a very good young driver indeed.

Changes in team names/driver lineups aside I'm reasonably happy with the general gist of it.

I'm rather more optimistic that we'll see a genuine fight for the title now, McLaren appear to be more of a match for Red Bull than I expected. Kubica hasn't made it back, sadly, and Lotus (=Renault) are looking hotter than I expected, with Kimi meaning they have genuine talent in one of the seats again. Williams look doomed, to be honest.

 

[GravyMonster]

- WDC: Alonso. Will win by less than 25 points, Vettel 2nd.
- WCC: Red Bull
- Caterham will break into the mid-field with consistent 10th-15th finishes, plus score their first points.
- Massa to have a poor start and be replaced mid-season.

I'd stick with mine, but change WDC to Hamilton. The McLaren may not be the fastest out of the box, but it won't be far off, and they will be there/there abouts by the time we hit the European races. If McLaren can break RBRs domination of qualifying then I don't see any reason why this year won't be more open.

I'd also add that Mercedes, RBR, and McLaren will be the 'Big 3', leaving Ferrari and Lotus fighting over best of the rest.

 

[sunama]

I'd stick with mine, but change WDC to Hamilton.

I said this umpteen times last year, and I shall say it again:

"you are brave man to bet against Vettel"

 

[Glaucus]

RBR 10 wins
McLaren 7
Lotus 2
Ferrari or mercedes 1

 

[Skeeter]

Just watched the F1 countdown show that was on Sky Sports News. They showed a clip of Alonso at testing sprinting from the garage to his motorhome with a minder with him in order to avoid the massive crowd of reporters...

Hmm...

But in terms of predictions, the sensible money has to be on Vettel, surely?