2012 predictions

Mr Men · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:30

sunama said:
Here's a question:
When Kimi was going to Ferrari (after MSc was retiring), Ferrari, on the advice of MSc, went for Kimi. MSc apparently stated that he believed that Kimi was the man best capable of taking his place, to lead Ferrari.

Now, at the time, Alonso had beaten MSc the previous year. And at the time MSc announced his retirement, Alonso was leading the current WDC.

Why did Ferrari not go for Alonso? If memory serves me correct, Alonso had not signed for McLaren (for 2007), so he would've been available.

Why did MSc not advise his team to do everything possible to get Alonso?

Did MS advise Ferrari?

Alonso was not at Ferrari because Jean Todt did not like him, has been reported Alonso backed out of a handshaken deal for him to join Ferrari when he was at Minardi (as Todt and MS were very impressed when watching him at Fiorano) instead going to Renault and Todt never forgave him.

dannyjo22 · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:31

sunama said:
Why did MSc not advise his team to do everything possible to get Alonso?

I honestly don't think they listened to MS's advice anymore than just polite courtesy. I'm sure they could look and see for themselves and figure out the data.

None of us will ever know for sure. There's been plenty of speculation either way.

That Kimi wasn't supposed to come so early which forced MS into retirement. Luca was sick of the stalling. That large influences at Ferrari notably Brawn didn't want Kimi and wanted Alonso.

In the end I don't think it would have made much difference, with the technical people that went the team isn't the same. Alonso would have probably won in 08 in a ferrari but then again Lewis wouldn't have dropped as many points against a whipping boy.

Brawn should cut and run from Merc back to Ferrari. Take some more of the right people and Alonso could deliver them many titles.

sunama · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:35

Skeeter said:
Edit: December 19th 2005 his 2007 contract with McLaren was announced.

This would explain it - Alonso was not on the market, when Ferrari had the vacancy.

Mr Men · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:36

sunama said:
This would explain it - Alonso was not on the market, when Ferrari had the vacancy.

Not really, Kimi was also signed well before 2007.

englishpremier · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:36

Skeeter said:
Really? After 2 years out, no experience of cars with this wheelbase (longer due to larger fuel tank), and no experience of Pirelli rubber, you still think he would beat Vettel, Alonso, Hamilton, Button, Schumacher, Webber, Massa and Rosberg?

Really?

Hasn't he just gone through pre-season testing?

Anyway, all [other] things being equal (caeteris paribus)

Kimi is an animal and will drive the nuts of anything.

On the subject of Alonso, McLaren is/was his all time favourite team, why would he have signed for Ferrari instead.

sunama · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:39

dannyjo22 said:
Brawn should cut and run from Merc back to Ferrari. Take some more of the right people and Alonso could deliver them many titles.

This would be an interesting idea.

I think it was mentioned 2 years ago, that once Merc had a decent car, they would bring in Vettel (all German line-up), to lead the team to glory. However, the way things are turning out, Merc seem unable to deliver a car capable of winning the title.

The advantage at Ferrari (for Brawn), would be a faster (initial) package, than what Merc currently have and the big attraction would be Alonso.

From what I understand though, Brawn part owns the Merc team, so from a financial/contractual perspective, I'm not sure if Brawn could up and leave, so easily.

schumi84 · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:40

dannyjo22 said:
Brawn should cut and run from Merc back to Ferrari. Take some more of the right people and Alonso could deliver them many titles.

Take Schumi back with him as well and watch the sparks fly with Alonso/Schumi partnership, that would be a sight to behold

(yes I realise that would never happen

).

As much as I would like to believe otherwise, I cannot see anything happening other than a Red Bull whitewash this year. I think the Lotus could be pretty quick towards the beginning of the year, maybe mixing it up a bit in Q3 along with Force India who I have been quietly impressed with.

Aside from that I just hope Webber can get his act together and give Seb a good fight, as I was really sorry to see him fail to win the title in 2010.

sunama · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:41

Mr Men said:
Not really, Kimi was also signed well before 2007.

Well before 2007 - correct, but after (or at around the same time) MSc announced he was leaving (the announcement was made in 2006).

Alonso was not available, when Ferrari were looking for a driver.

Skeeter · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:42

Mr Men said:
Not really, Kimi was also signed well before 2007.

Kimi's contract with Ferrari was announced just after the 10th September 2006, with Schumacher's retirement being announced on the 10th itself, after the Monza race.

All this happened 9 months on from Alonso signing with McLaren.

englishpremier · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:43

sunama said:
This would be an interesting idea.

I think it was mentioned 2 years ago, that once Merc had a decent car, they would bring in Vettel (all German line-up), to lead the team to glory. However, the way things are turning out, Merc seem unable to deliver a car capable of winning the title.

Mercedes haven't even had a chance to build a fast car yet. It's only know they've got the budget and personal.

Brawn had to lay off half of their staff remember? The 2010 car, was designed by the Brawn team (in 2009), So it's only really last years car that Mercedes have being able to have any influence on, and it was a step in the right direction.

sunama · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:44

schumi84 said:
Aside from that I just hope Webber can get his act together and give Seb a good fight, as I was really sorry to see him fail to win the title in 2010.

Webber has been completely broken (mentally). It would take a VERY strong man to come back and start competing with Vettel, after Vettel beat him so badly the year before.

Perhaps someone can refresh my memory, but after a driver has taken such a beating, I donot recall him ever coming back from it.

I think the closest thing I can thing of is when Massa got beat by Kimi in 2008, then Massa beat Kimi (up until the accident) in 2009. But even then, Kimi never beat Massa by such a large margin.

Mr Men · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:45

sunama said:
Well before 2007 - correct, but after (or at around the same time) MSc announced he was leaving (the announcement was made in 2006).

Alonso was not available, when Ferrari were looking for a driver.

I would say he was available when they signed Kimi. I am sure Todt is on record saying he chose Kimi for personal reasons.

sunama · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:47

englishpremier said:
Mercedes haven't even had a chance to build a fast car yet. It's only know they've got the budget and personal.

Brawn had to lay off half of their staff remember? The 2010 car, was designed by the Brawn team (in 2009), So it's only really last years car that Mercedes have being able to have any influence on, and it was a step in the right direction.

I see your point.

But why waste time with Merc, trying to build a better car, when Ferrari already have a better car AND they have Alonso? In order to beat Vettel, Merc will have to build a car which is at least a 0.1s - 0.4s/lap faster than Vettel's. Otherwise, Vettel will probably beat their driver.

At Ferrari, as long as they build Alonso a car which is roughly the same speed as RBR, Ferrari stand an equal chance of winning the title (vs Vettel).

Winning at Ferrari, would be far easier (excluding any contractual problems which may arise if Brawn left Merc).

Mr Men · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:49

Brawn would only come back maybe if it was to replace Domenicali. Maybe winning at Ferrari would be easier, who can tell, maybe he would get more enjoyment from winning at Merc since he has got the t-shirt from Ferrari.

Skeeter · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:50

Mr Men said:
I would say he was available when they signed Kimi. I am sure Todt is on record saying he chose Kimi for personal reasons.

He would have been as 'available' as any other driver in a contract, its just a case of buying him out of it.

But he was most definitely tied into a contract with McLaren well before the 2006 season even started, let alone when they started discussing MSc retiring and who to replace him with.

sunama · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:51

Mr Men said:
I would say he was available when they signed Kimi. I am sure Todt is on record saying he chose Kimi for personal reasons.

If Alonso was signed in Dec 2005, as Skeeter stated, there is no way that he was available in mid 2006, which is when MSc would've decided to retire and make way for another No.1 driver.

Mr Men · 13 Mar 2012 at 12:55

sunama said:
If Alonso was signed in Dec 2005, as Skeeter stated, there is no way that he was available in mid 2006, which is when MSc would've decided to retire and make way for another No.1 driver.

So you think the announce date is the day they actually done a deal?

Kimi was signed well before MS decided to retire, he was not signed to replace MS.

Skeeter · 13 Mar 2012 at 13:01

Indeed, but then the same can be said about the Alonso/McLaren deal. For Alonso to have been on the market we are talking about Ferrari choosing not to sign him and sign Kimi instead almost a year before they announced it. Something like that would be impossible to keep quiet in F1.

But given their performances I can't imagine that Alonso didn't at least aproach Ferrari when he was looking at contracts around the end of 2005. If Ferrari turned him down its likely to be either because they didn't want him (as you have suggested), or that they didn't have a slot for him.

But I think its highly unlikely that Ferrari sat down at any point with both Alonso and Kimi on the table and available (i.e. not tied into contracts) at the same time.

Mr Men · 13 Mar 2012 at 13:05

Skeeter said:
Indeed, but then the same can be said about the Alonso/McLaren deal. For Alonso to have been on the market we are talking about Ferrari choosing not to sign him and sign Kimi instead almost a year before they announced it. Something like that would be impossible to keep quiet in F1.

But given their performances I can't imagine that Alonso didn't at least aproach Ferrari when he was looking at contracts around the end of 2005. If Ferrari turned him down its likely to be either because they didn't want him (as you have suggested), or that they didn't have a slot for him.

Alonso to Ferrari was well rumoured back then along with Raikkonen so it was not so quiet, I imagine as you say Briatore was offering Alonso to Ferrari and McLaren as would be silly not to be doing so. I think it was very likely Ferrari had the option of Kimi or Alonso, and Todt took Kimi and that was the end of Todt really.

Will source Todt's comments about why he picked Kimi over Alonso as Kimi was a better personality (LOL) for the team.

Skeeter · 13 Mar 2012 at 13:09

Yep, entirely possible that Ferrari turned down Alonso because of Todt.

I just think its unlikely they turned him down because they were already talking to Kimi. They might have been hoping that opportunity would arrive (throughout 2005 Kimi was threatening McLaren that he would leave if they didn't build him a reliable car), but I doubt those conversations were already going on.

I think it became common knowledge that Alonso wanted to go to Ferrari around the start of the 2007 season when things started going wrong between him and McLaren. When did Todt leave Ferrari?

Edit: Todt started making his exit in 2007, right around the time Alonso to Ferrari rumours started. Seems entirely plausible that Todt was the blocker to Alonso going to Ferrari then. Any idea why he didn't want him so badly?