2012 predictions

XeNoN89 said:
... so that the real michael can return and fight at the front, even though lots hate the old michael, i think it will be exciting to see him as he was at ferrari
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Do you honestly believe that a 42 year old man can perform at the same level as when he was in his late 20s/early 30s?

MSc is no longer the same driver as he was during his record breaking seasons. Even if he had the best car, I feel Rosberg would be the more likely to win the title.

I'm using the last 2 seasons the basis for my reasoning:

2010
Rosberg 142 pts
MSc 72 pts

2011
Rosberg 75 pts
MSc 70 pts

'nuff said.
 
arknor said:
100 alonso
95 hamilton
93 vettel
87 button
83 webber
80 massa
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You think Button is that far below Hamilton?
Button has got to be more than 4 points ahead of Webber.

arknor said:
i'd rate 98 schumacher above 2006 alonso though

schumacher is the most dominant driver of all time because of how many records and championships he took, it doesnt mean hes neccasarily the fastest driver of all time just probably the most complete package..
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I agree on both points.
 
sunama said:
Do you honestly believe that a 42 year old man can perform at the same level as when he was in his late 20s/early 30s?

MSc is no longer the same driver as he was during his record breaking seasons. Even if he had the best car, I feel Rosberg would be the more likely to win the title.

I'm using the last 2 seasons the basis for my reasoning:

2010
Rosberg 142 pts
MSc 72 pts

2011
Rosberg 75 pts
MSc 70 pts

'nuff said.
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Aaaaaand, queue Arknor!
 
sunama said:
Do you honestly believe that a 42 year old man can perform at the same level as when he was in his late 20s/early 30s?

MSc is no longer the same driver as he was during his record breaking seasons. Even if he had the best car, I feel Rosberg would be the more likely to win the title.

I'm using the last 2 seasons the basis for my reasoning:

2010
Rosberg 142 pts
MSc 72 pts

2011
Rosberg 75 pts
MSc 70 pts

'nuff said.
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In fairness to MSc, the first season was his first back in the game so was always going to be difficult, plus the car wasn't designed with him in mind in any way.

In his second season he has 94% of the points his team mate has had. How many extra pit stops has he has this year for wings (both because of his mistakes and others)? He also had 5 retirements to Nico's 2.

I'm not saying he will beat him next year or that he could compete with himself from 10 years ago. But it's not as clear cut as just looking at the points to judge next year imo. Yes ultimately the points are what history looks at and are what the drivers are judged on in some respects including the championship but MSc has looked more like his old self in the last few races.

He looked also very strong in Belgium practise but had to start last because of a loose wheel in Quali yet still finished 5th ahead of Rosberg. In India he was struggling in Quali, started 10th and then finished 5th, again ahead of Rosberg.

His retirements this year were for 1) puncture damage, 2) fire in airbox 3) gearbox failure, 4) went up the back of Perez 5) Petrov a little late on the brakes.

So of the 5 races he didn't finish this year only 1 could definitely be considered his fault (4).

Rosberg on the other hand had 1) Barichello sending one up the inside from about a mile back 2) Liuzzi wipes him out.

So if we took out retirements that were not the drivers fault we have MSc at 4 and rosberg at 0.

So MSc only needed to average 1.25 points in those 4 races and he matches Rosberg.

Yes he got less points than rosberg. But through problems that had nothing to do with him or his ability he has had 4 races less to earn 5 points.

Only counting races where the drivers either finished, or retired due to a fault of their driving (15 for Rosberg, 13 for MSc) they have averaged 5 (Rosberg) and 5.38 (MSc) points per race.
 
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Todge, the original discussion was based around MSc in his prime and MSc as an old man. What I'm saying is that the old man cannot compete against the young man. Sure, with a little luck he might be able to just about beat Nico...but in his prime, he would've decimated Nico and probably done to him, what he did to every team-mate in the past (take note that no team-mate was able to avoid being decimated by MSc).

Arknor did not put MSc in his top6 list...I'd definitely go along with that. Now if this was the year 2000 and MSc was in his prime, MSc would be 100 with the 2nd best man, around 90 or lower...that's how far ahead I rate MSc, compared to the rest, when he was in his prime.

You just cant compare the young MSc to the one you are seeing now.

...and I agree, it is very close between MSc and Nico, now, whereby a bit of bad/good luck can make the difference. I still fee though, that Nico has the edge.
 
I don't think Red Bull will have such an advantage next year but I think it would take a brave man to bet against them taking another championship.

As such, I predict Red Bull will win the Constructors, and Vettel will take a third consecutive title. Hamilton will take second, and it will be decided with a race to go. Ferrari's money will let them cling on to third faced with a resurgent Mercedes. Back down the grid, Kimi's return to F1 will do nothing to restore William's flagging fortunes and Force India will take another step forward. Lotus will finally manage to mix it with the back of the longer standing teams. Kova will be spoken of in connection with a seat at a top team having restored his tarnished reputation by repeatedly putting that Lotus above its natural position.

Kubica will return to a Renault seat but it will not be the triumphant return we all hope for. A combination of physical and mental damage will stop him performing to his former standards. In the other seat, Senna will grow into a very good young driver indeed.
 
That's a very detailed prediction you have given there. I like a man with unshakable faith.

But, Hamilton finishing ahead of Alonso...I just can't see this happening, unless McLaren produce a car which is light years ahead of Ferrari.

Also, you are assuming that Button cannot continue his current run of form. It is quite possible that Button could improve further (crazy as it sounds), next year and move himself closer to the Alonso's performance level and past Hamilton. Also consider that Hamilton is still maintaining his high collision rate of 1 every 2 races. While this is the case, he won't be able to finish ahead of Button. He has not yet been able to go 2 races without a crash (since the halfway point of the 2011 season).

Will he be able to reduce his collision rate over a single Winter? Will he even be capable of beating Button over a single season or has Button completely broken him? Before 2011, Hamilton had never been outperformed by a team-mate. Clearly, Hamilton is having problems coming to terms with this.

These days, my expectation of Hamilton is to have at least 1 collision every race weekend...and I don't think I have felt that way about any driver, in the history of F1. Normally, drivers who crash this often are ousted from F1.

There are just too many question marks over Hamilton, now.

Personally, I can see Hamilton driving like he used to, only if he changes the team and has the entire team based around him. Much like MSc and Alonso. He NEEDS this. The moment Button began to beat him, the guy fell apart and it all started in Canada.
 
Oh and on RBR not having such a big advantage: we can only hope. I think Ferrari are the team who stand the best chance of beating them as they are intent on taking as many risks as necessary. If it works out for them, it could be great, otherwise Vettel's 3rd title could be so easy, breaking records could be the only thing that keeps Vettel interested in F1, next year.
 
sunama said:
That's a very detailed prediction you have given there. I like a man with unshakable faith.
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Well, if one is going to predict, one should do it properly :D

But, Hamilton finishing ahead of Alonso...I just can't see this happening, unless McLaren produce a car which is light years ahead of Ferrari.
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Hamilton is a faster driver than Alonso, he's shown it before. One bad season doesn't make him suddenly a bad driver.

Also, you are assuming that Button cannot continue his current run of form. It is quite possible that Button could improve further (crazy as it sounds), next year and move himself closer to the Alonso's performance level and past Hamilton. Also consider that Hamilton is still maintaining his high collision rate of 1 every 2 races. While this is the case, he won't be able to finish ahead of Button. He has not yet been able to go 2 races without a crash (since the halfway point of the 2011 season).
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I expect Button to have a great season. The only reason that Alonso will beat Button is because Massa will have to surrender points to Fernando. However, I just don't believe Button is as fast as Lewis; if Lewis gets his head together and starts putting in the kind of performances we know he can, he will beat Button once more.

Personally, I can see Hamilton driving like he used to, only if he changes the team and has the entire team based around him. Much like MSc and Alonso. He NEEDS this. The moment Button began to beat him, the guy fell apart and it all started in Canada.
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I think Hamilton just needs a proper management team with experience in F1. He has, I think, been too directed towards celebrity when he should have been directed towards winning races. I hope he'll spend some time with a sports psychologist over the winter and come back a better driver next season.

The things Lewis has been saying towards the end of this season make me think he understands what he needs to do.
 
Hamilton is probably quicker than Alonso over a single lap...but he isn't as complete.
Alonso is the more complete which is why I think he will tend to outscore the opposition.

This year, on dry tracks Hamilton has been generally quicker, but because Button has been the more complete driver (ie. he knows when to push hard and knows when to hold back, using his intelligence), he has been finishing ahead of Hamilton.
 
sunama said:
Hamilton is probably quicker than Alonso over a single lap...but he isn't as complete.
Alonso is the more complete which is why I think he will tend to outscore the opposition.

This year, on dry tracks Hamilton has been generally quicker, but because Button has been the more complete driver (ie. he knows when to push hard and knows when to hold back, using his intelligence), he has been finishing ahead of Hamilton.
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This is the problem with modern F1 - it isn't racing as we knew it, it is about managing the race as a whole. Personally, I don't like this - I want to see them out there, all pushing as hard as they can for the duration. Hamilton would have been better in times that have passed.
 
Arknor did not put MSc in his top6 list
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no point when he doesnt have a car that lets us really judge where he is actually at right now.
it would certainly be above massa and webber anyway based on theeir current seasons

button i probably under rated and hamilton over rated if were basing it solely on this season..

something make me believe alonso is on the decline tbh he just doesnt seem to be giving it his all this year but maybe a large part of that is because of the car and hes just accepted this year is over so whats the point

This is the problem with modern F1 - it isn't racing as we knew it, it is about managing the race as a whole. Personally, I don't like this - I want to see them out there, all pushing as hard as they can for the duration. Hamilton would have been better in times that have passed.
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im the same i hate how they have to manage the car over what seems like everything but the first couple of laps.

we will probably never see refueling back though and it looks like they want to keep the crappy must use both compounds of tyre rule.

maybe the compounds would be useful with refueling and not beeing forced but as it is whats the point in 2 compounds? they might aswell just bring 1 because we will still see the same boring stratergies of making the tyres last as long as possible
 
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With regards to Alonso: just take a look at how far ahead he is of Massa. Massa isn't a bad driver and regularly mixes it with Hamilton, who many place in high regard. Alonso is decimating Massa.

IMO, Alonso is doing a fantastic job at Ferrari, in what is now, the 3rd best car.
 
i think massa is having a hamiltonesque season tbh but with the added torture of having to come to terms with beeing a #2 by contract
 
Massa is a shadow of his former self, and his only purpose at Ferrari is No 1 test driver.

He has been so poor in that car that I cringe when anyone gets the misfortune of being stuck behind him. It's like Jarno Trulli (train) all over again.
 
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