Realistically, only retirement will guarantee anything changes.
Assuming those against Rosberg are praying for a T1 incident, then you have to remember that any significant impact at T1 is going to result in a SC and the possibility in Hamilton getting wiped out too.
Also, if Ves et al. overcook T1 and punt Rosberg off, wouldn't he just steer in to Ham anyway? I don't want to think about that
but it's possible we could see the situation where the championship is decided at T1. We would then be in a mess where the FIA would need to prove he did it deliberately and ultimately exclude him from the WDC (assuming Ham also retires) because he'd still have more WDC points. Also, the entire race will be ruined by speculation... eugh
A minor spin where he ends up at the back is just going to mean he'll have to come back through the pack with the engine turned up. P4 should be easy.
A puncture is no guarantee he'll finish outside the top 4 either. Assuming the Merc can get good tyre life he may just whack on a set of the hardest compound and go for the 1 stop. The way Ferrari and Williams have shot themselves in the foot with their strategy this year that's a top 6 finish in the bag. Also consider the double effect DRS zone and that he'll be in the best car...
I wouldn't hold your breath.