Afghanistan - 20 years on

cheesyboy said:
I genuinely don't believe there would have been a peaceful exit strategy for the Taliban when it comes to dealing with the US war machine. Can you envisage it?

Not that I'm suggesting they were searching for one, through.
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They could just have stopped killing people at some point in the past 20 years?

Maybe going back to 2001 is they've stopped violence immediately it would have just meant that the US never left and never permitted people with fundamentalist religious beliefs into government, but I think after a while with political pressure they would have had to. Mass demonstrations every week would force even the US to rethink things after a while even if only to avoid press criticism at home.

Certainly since the 2020 agreement they showed no signs of letting up on attacks against government forces, even when the US was already committed to leaving. If there was any time they could have pushed for political influence peacefully, that was surely it, but they carried on killing.
 
B&W said:
Troop movements to defend a newly conquered capital does not equal political policy.
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Sure makes clamping down on any sort of protest easier though. They weren't expecting to have Kabul in their control so easily, we'll see how lenient they are when they have far more force on the streets.
 
The Running Man said:
The taliban have already agreed to not fire at the US troops going back to last year as part of the withdrawal package.

Do you think they ate stupid enough to start lighting up the airport on us diplomats etc and force the US to counter attack them?
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I wasn't talking about them attacking the influx of troops trying to manage the evac at the airport.

I meant had the US realised this would happen and not pulled the rug the number of troops in the country when Biden took over would not have been enough to stop a Taliban offensive. So at that point you either run the risk of seeing them get chased out, ramp up numbers to counter the Taliban or call it quits. After 20 years I'm not sure I can blame them for option 3.
 
Washout said:
I wasn't talking about them attacking the influx of troops trying to manage the evac at the airport.

I meant had the US realised this would happen and not pulled the rug the number of troops in the country when Biden took over would not have been enough to stop a Taliban offensive. So at that point you either run the risk of seeing them get chased out, ramp up numbers to counter the Taliban or call it quits. After 20 years I'm not sure I can blame them for option 3.
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But looks to the world like they took option one though.
 
Washout said:
I wasn't talking about them attacking the influx of troops trying to manage the evac at the airport.

I meant had the US realised this would happen and not pulled the rug the number of troops in the country when Biden took over would not have been enough to stop a Taliban offensive. So at that point you either run the risk of seeing them get chased out, ramp up numbers to counter the Taliban or call it quits. After 20 years I'm not sure I can blame them for option 3.
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Thing is though the US spent the last few months if anything undermining the ability for the Afghans to fight back and did little to address many well known issues - sure a good bit of the blame falls on the Afghan government but the US wasn't detached from that - especially due to doing the US's bidding they were left spread out trying to hold the whole country ineffectively instead of projecting power from well defended lines allowing the Taliban to easily flank them and concentrate their forces for the most effect taking strategic positions while the Afghan forces were still configured for redundant US requirements leaving them cut off and with no option but to run or surrender even if they wanted to fight - and by that point those that were only there for the money, actually supported the Taliban, etc. had already left.

I'm actually surprised how quickly and with so little fighting in the last days it did fall but I saw weeks back the strategic position on the ground was ****** and unless they rapidly fell back to defendable positions the country was done. I just thought it would still be 2-3 weeks of fighting yet.

I'd be less bothered if it wasn't for Biden going on TV to berate them, in a very weird manner, for not fighting back after the US played a good part in why they weren't in much of a position to fight back while showing he was either hopelessly out of touch with the facts on the ground, hopelessly inept or unashamedly lying. If he'd gone on TV and said "well the situation is ****** and all we can do is pull out" I might have a little respect for him.

B&W said:
Check out Suhail Shaheen Twitter account, official spokesman of Taliban.

A Shia march was held in Kabul today, it was allowed none were harmed. Girls also were pictured going to school, can't find it now but this goes with what the Taliban were saying.

The country is sick of war, most Talibans are pretty young. a lot of people across the Islamic world have congratulated them, it's there time to proove themselves better then they were before. Would be the wise thing to do.
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Things will change when the eyes of the world aren't on them. But also, and not just propaganda, there seems to be quite a division between the more hardline older school Taliban and the younger ones especially the political wing - I think we may see the country fragment into infighting and tribal differences, etc. in the not too distant future.
 
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HoneyBadger said:
The withdrawal has been executed badly, but a deadline was previously agreed.

Taking Biden at face value, it seems like everything that could be done, was done.

They’ve given the country a chance, ultimately the country has not taken it. There comes a point whereby the Afghans have to take responsibility for their own lives, and if they can’t do it within 20 years, I see no reason why others should do it for them.

As I said earlier, it’s now time to leave them to it, to sort it out themselves.
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I agree with everything that you have written.
 
koolpc said:
You never ever see the Islamic countries coming to the aid of others. Let them sort it out.
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The huge refugee numbers in 'Islamic' countries defies this statement.

I think the statement might continue to be true for countries that make up the Arab Peninsula, which is aggravating considering their immense wealth, but I suppose it's understandable that refugees aren't likely to choose (if they even have a choice) a desert over more arid countries like Lebanon or Turkey.
 
HoneyBadger said:
The withdrawal has been executed badly, but a deadline was previously agreed.

Taking Biden at face value, it seems like everything that could be done, was done.

They’ve given the country a chance, ultimately the country has not taken it. There comes a point whereby the Afghans have to take responsibility for their own lives, and if they can’t do it within 20 years, I see no reason why others should do it for them.

As I said earlier, it’s now time to leave them to it, to sort it out themselves.
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I don't agree everything that could be done was done - I honestly not sure it would have made much difference other than drag out the fighting - but lots of changes could have been made in the final months so that when the US left the Afghan forces were better dug in to project power from well defended lines instead of strung out, poorly support and in many cases going months without pay, etc. etc. the result being the rug was pulled out from even those who would fight.

Ultimately now was the time to leave but it wasn't executed at all right not in the withdrawal itself or the weeks and months leading up to it - unless the goal was to give the Taliban an easy time of it all along.
 
B&W said:
Check out Suhail Shaheen Twitter account, official spokesman of Taliban.

A Shia march was held in Kabul today, it was allowed none were harmed. Girls also were pictured going to school, can't find it now but this goes with what the Taliban were saying.

The country is sick of war, most Talibans are pretty young. a lot of people across the Islamic world have congratulated them, it's there time to proove themselves better then they were before. Would be the wise thing to do.
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Sounds like you'd be happy there.
 
B&W said:
Let's hope not, this is the same Suhail Shaheen who said after ,9/11 we are ready for the trial of Osama if they bring evidence.

See old video...

https://twitter.com/talhaahmad967/status/1426961084313968641?t=zfbywn-AEz6TIiJD_XZbJQ&s=19

Perhaps they should have listened a bit instead of acting like cowboys, the Taliban knew they would be decimated initially so negotiations were in there interests.
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He wasn't in any position to make that offer though, he was an ambassador for the Taliban contradicting the views of the actual Taliban leader in Afghanistan who was pretty adamant publicly that OBL wasn't going to be handed over.

https://edition.cnn.com/2015/07/29/opinions/bergen-mullah-omar/
Ten days after 9/11, the Voice of America radio service interviewed Mullah Omar, asking him: "So you won't give Osama bin Laden up?" Omar replied, "No. We cannot do that. If we did, it means we are not Muslims, that Islam is finished. If we were afraid of attack, we could have surrendered him the last time we were threatened."

Mullah Omar explained to Taliban insiders: "Islam says that when a Muslim asks for shelter, give the shelter and never hand him over to enemy. And our Afghan tradition says that, even if your enemy asks for shelter, forgive him and give him shelter. Osama has helped the jihad in Afghanistan, he was with us in bad days and I am not going to give him to anyone."
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If it were as simple as the Taliban handing over OBL and other Al Quaeda groups then 9/11 wouldn't have happened in the first place as the US wanted them prior to that, remember Clinton bombed Afghanistan prior to 9/11 after the US Embassy attacks, OBL was wanted back then and the Taliban had no interest in handing him over then either.

CNN said:
Rahimullah Yusufzai, one of Pakistan's leading journalists, is one of the few to have interviewed Mullah Omar. Both before and after 9/11 the Taliban leader was adamant on the issue of handing bin Laden over to the Americans, telling Yusufzai, "I don't want to go down in history as someone who betrayed his guest. I am willing to give my life, my regime. Since we have given him refuge I cannot throw him out now."
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Also note from the first quote, the bit about not just Islam but their Afghan tradition - this is an aspect that some (particularly Americans) perhaps didn't grasp and this is particularly important particularly in the rural areas of the country - this is how it is run, central governments in urban areas don't have much hope of ruling much beyond those urban areas - a decentralised system of government under the Taliban is bound to be more resilient because of this Pashtunwali culture:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pashtunwali
wikipedia said:
It is the way of the Pashtuns. We have melmestia, being a good host, nanawatai, giving asylum, and badal, vengeance. Pashtuns live by these things.[12]

— Abdur, A character in Morgen's War

The Pashtun tribes are always engaged in private or public war. Every man is a warrior, a politician and a theologian. Every large house is a real feudal fortress. ... Every family cultivates its vendetta; every clan, its feud. ... Nothing is ever forgotten and very few debts are left unpaid.

Winston Churchill (My Early Life, Chapter 11: "The Mahmund Valley")
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Melmastya
wikipedia said:
Elphinstone in 1815 observed: "The most remarkable characteristic of the Afghans is their hospitality. The practice of this virtue is so much a point of national honor, that their reproach to an inhospitable man is that he has no Pushtunwali". (Elphinston 1969: 226).
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Not exactly unlike similar concepts in other cultures:

Hospitium in Greko-Roman culture:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hospitium

See also (fictional) guest rights in Game of Thrones - the Red Wedding being atrocious... or the real-life apparent influence of the Glencoe Massacre. Lots of cultures in the past had quite strong views re: the role of a host, guest rights etc.. Afghans still have strong views today, ti's a very tribal culture and Pashtunwali is like their common law, no modern government or even Taliban style decentralised system is going to replace that set of values ingrained into their culture any time soon.
 
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Excellent Twitter thread here, posted by the Central Bank Governor of Afghanistan, explaining the fall of the government from his perspective as a first hand observer.

Ata Mohammad Noor (former Governor of Balkh Province) is adamant that the Taliban takeover involved local collusion.

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Mobs of local Afghans are hurling stones at the Afghan military as they retreat.
 
StriderX said:
The huge refugee numbers in 'Islamic' countries defies this statement.

I think the statement might continue to be true for countries that make up the Arab Peninsula, which is aggravating considering their immense wealth, but I suppose it's understandable that refugees aren't likely to choose (if they even have a choice) a desert over more arid countries like Lebanon or Turkey.
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They dont come to the aid of their brothers 'in' the country, no. They let the west do that!
 
Largely he is trying to save face as much as the other leadership who fled.

As per that Twitter thread it isn't really surprising ANSF bailed so quickly - they were left in an untenable position - largely nothing more sinister than that just years of poor work by the Afghan and US governments.
 
There were reports of widespread 'deals' and bribery of local officials, so it may well have seemed like there was a big organised plot to those seeing it play out in person.
Sankari said:
Excellent Twitter thread here, posted by the Central Bank Governor of Afghanistan, explaining the fall of the government from his perspective as a first hand observer.
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I did think it was an interesting thread, and hope there will be more stories like that from different people to help flesh out what happened. However, part of that particular story doesn't make much sense to me: he "somehow" got pushed onto a military plane by his colleagues without any prior arrangement? It sounds like the military are being pretty tight about who gets on their planes, but he 'somehow' just gets on? Doesn't feel like he's telling the truth about that aspect.
 
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