Afghanistan - 20 years on

[Jono8]

Because they were really peaceful and not really trying previously?

Or because you don’t grasp that the US had pulled back from major combat operations already years ago, the ANA was doing the fighting… until Biden pulled the rug out and they quickly collapsed/Taliban advanced.

You clearly have a complete logical disconnect here. The Taliban being largely peaceful before the deal does not, in any way, mean that they would not have launched attacks if the US decided not to fully withdraw as promised.

Also stop with the "pulled the rug" nonsense, It makes no sense. If the US committed to a full withdrawal, the "rug" was getting pulled at some point or another.

Irrelevant. There is no guarantee of anything here. Back in reality though, there were plenty of likely better options here.

Haven't seen one, from any one, especially from the arm chair generals in this thread, yourself included.

Its very easy to sit behind a keyboard on a computer forum, whilst literally knowing virtually nothing about the situation and just assuming that an objectively better outcome existed.

 

[Jono8]

People aren't suggesting there was a viable long term solution - though I can see how it is useful for some posters to try and paint it that way. But that doesn't mean the situation leading up to and the transition itself couldn't have been done better or that there weren't ways to approach it which would have at least given the Afghans some chance even if a slim one. (Up until the 12th the Afghan forces with US air support were largely conducting a successful campaign against the Taliban).

As dowie said it isn't like Biden and his administration had no agency in this.

But perhaps it was decided this course of action was the best when compared to possibly far bloodier alternatives?

Its all very easy to imagine the grass would be greener if Biden had done some certain thing that somehow, possibly might have stopped the Taliban taking over, but what was that thing and how was it definitely going to work?

 

[Rroff]

But perhaps it was decided this course of action was the best when compared to possibly far bloodier alternatives?

Its all very easy to imagine the grass would be greener if Biden had done some certain thing that somehow, possibly might have stopped the Taliban taking over, but what was that thing and how was it definitely going to work?

Eh? Have you just not watched the news? just about any course of action would have been better and you have military commanders, heads of state or various organisations saying so.

This wasn't a managed situation it was a desperate incident with countries having to rush in heavy lift capibilities from all over the globe on an hours notice.

 

[Jono8]

Eh? Have you just not watched the news? just about any course of action would have been better and you have military commanders, heads of state or various organisations saying so.

So what if someone has an opinion on what might have been, if something else was done? Everyone has an opinion and its very easy to mouth off about stuff in hindsight.

The fact remains that any alternative risked a hell of a lot too.

 

[Jono8]

Interesting read about further delays to the whole process that the Trump admin added

https://twitter.com/oliviatroye/status/1428740865665679361?s=21

https://amp.usatoday.com/amp/8228495002

WASHINGTON – A former aide to former Vice President Mike Pence blamed racist views of a top Trump administration official for the inability of many translators and other allies to get out of Afghanistan before the U.S. withdrew troops.

Olivia Troye tweeted that Stephen Miller, a senior adviser to former President Donald Trump, teamed up with “enablers” to undermine anyone trying to get the allies out by “devastating” the special immigrant visa system at the departments of State and Homeland Security.

“Stephen Miller would peddle his racist hysteria about Iraq & Afghanistan,” tweeted Troye. She described Pence as “fully aware” of the problem.

 

[Rroff]

So what if someone has an opinion on what might have been, if something else was done? Everyone has an opinion and its very easy to mouth off about stuff in hindsight.

The fact remains that any alternative risked a hell of a lot too.

This isn't a managed situation it is a shambles and if you roll the dice on it the chances of it going insanely wrong are spectacularly high. It is unlikely someone intentionally worked to this outcome.

 

[Jono8]

This isn't a managed situation it is a shambles and if you roll the dice on it the chances of it going insanely wrong are spectacularly high. It is unlikely someone intentionally worked to this outcome.

Was always likely to be a shambles at some point once the Taliban decided to move on taking the country. There was always going to be loads of refugees/Americans wanting to leave in a panic at that point.

You seem to be imagining a scenario where everyone had made their chose to leave or stay regardless of what the Taliban did, or some sort of scenario where the Taliban were very kind of heart and gave the country a headstart and said "hey guys we intend to take over this country now the US is leaving and after they have released 5000 prisoners back to us, including our new leader. But to be nice, we will give you all 3 months to pack your bags if you want to go".

 

[Rroff]

Was always likely to be a shambles at some point once the Taliban decided to move on taking the country. There was always going to be loads of refugees/Americans wanting to leave in a panic at that point.

You seem to be imagining a scenario where everyone had made their chose to leave or stay regardless of what the Taliban did, or some sort of scenario where the Taliban were very kind of heart and gave the country a headstart and said "hey guys we intend to take over this country now the US is leaving and after they have released 5000 prisoners back to us, including our new leader. But to be nice, we will give you all 3 months to pack your bags if you want to go".

Eh?

What is it with you Biden boys and doing an "what you actually said" completely detached from or an assumption?

The rate of Taliban advance was largely because the door was left open for them and US approach (or lack of) on the ground was a large factor in that.

 

[Jono8]

Eh?

What is it with you Biden boys and doing an "what you actually said" completely detached from or an assumption?

I'm not a "Biden boy" (just lol at that term too). I think he is a bit of a "meh" president overall (but thankfully not a "LOL WTF, are you Serious?" president like the last one). I just think it's utterly bizarre to put so much blame on him for this scenario. A scenario that was put in motion and exacerbated by the previous administration, incredibly likely to happen with a full US withdrawal of troops, and a scenario that perhaps might be the best and least bloody outcome compared with an extended stay by US troops and an impatient Taliban.

 

[Vulcan]

I just think it's utterly bizarre to put so much blame on him for this scenario.

"This scenario" being the Taliban taking back the country, or the current mess at Kabul?

Because the latter he is to blame for.

 

[Jono8]

"This scenario" being the Taliban taking back the country, or the current mess at Kabul?

Because the latter he is to blame for.

They are one and the same thing mostly. The people suddenly desperately wanting to leave, are leaving because the Taliban have taken over. They likely would have stayed until that eventuality, whatever the US soldiers did.

As per my post earlier, those that wanted to get ahead and decided to leave early based on trump's agreement were stifled because of the Trump admin's stupid visa rules on the issue. The Biden admin had to fix that and did indeed manage to ramp up the process, but with the timelines involved in the deal made the with the Taliban, it was too little too late by the US government.

 

[dowie]

You clearly have a complete logical disconnect here. The Taliban being largely peaceful before the deal does not, in any way, mean that they would not have launched attacks if the US decided not to fully withdraw as promised.

LOL I'd say the same about you tbh... calling the Taliban "largely peaceful"??? WTF are you smoking??? You have absolutely no clue do you, the logical disconnect is on your side where you've conflated a lack of US casualties with a lack of activity from the Taliban (again, the US had mostly withdrawn from combat operations, that's the reason for the lack of casualties not the Taliban suddenly being soft and caring) - as if the ANA weren't taking plenty of casualties here both before and after the deal... try telling them the Taliban were largely peaceful!

Do you work for CNN or something?

Also stop with the "pulled the rug" nonsense, It makes no sense. If the US committed to a full withdrawal, the "rug" was getting pulled at some point or another.

Again, not necessarily in this manner... how about stop your delusional nonsense where you're just blindly justifying this with a bunch of handwaving were you pretend Biden has no agency and his actions could have no impact on anything that follows.

Its very easy to sit behind a keyboard on a computer forum, whilst literally knowing virtually nothing about the situation

That's exactly what you're doing though!

Especially with your Taliban largely peaceful comment, FFS!

 

[Jono8]

LOL I'd say the same about you tbh... calling the Taliban "largely peaceful"??? WTF are you smoking??? You have absolutely no clue do you, the logical disconnect is on your side where you've conflated a lack of US casualties with a lack of activity from the Taliban (again, the US had mostly withdrawn from combat operations, that's the reason for the lack of casualties not the Taliban suddenly being soft and caring) - as if the ANA weren't taking plenty of casualties here both before and after the deal... try telling them the Taliban were largely peaceful!

Do you work for CNN or something?





Again, not necessarily in this manner... how about stop your delusional nonsense where you're just blindly justifying this with a bunch of handwaving were you pretend Biden has no agency and his actions could have no impact on anything that follows.



That's exactly what you're doing though!

Especially with your Taliban largely peaceful comment, FFS!

Trust you to latch on to that . It was poorly worded i admit, but i meant in terms of their threat to US forces. Perhaps,"largely of no threat to" in terms of the US forces would have been better.

There is nothing delusional about not thinking that i know best about what would have happened should Biden have done a certain thing differently, and that it wouldn't have perhaps resulted in an even bigger mess, or worse conflict.

Its only delusional nonsense to you because you can never back up any of your arguments and always argue semantics or never answer questions directly. That is your MO in this forum.

Still waiting on your alternative plan that would have made everything better....

 

[dowie]

There is nothing delusional about not thinking that i know best about what would have happened should Biden have done a certain thing differently, and that it wouldn't have perhaps resulted in an even bigger mess, or worse conflict.

You don't need to know how best to have handled it in order to see that the way that it has been handled is pretty terrible... it isn't hard to see that Biden has screwed up here!

Its only delusional nonsense to you because you can never back up any of your arguments and always argue semantics or never answer questions directly. That is your MO in this forum.

Nope, that's yours. If you feel I haven't backed up a particular claim or argument then go and quote it - it's not you good making vague claims here, quote the argument I've made.

Still waiting on your alternative plan that would have made everything better....

What alternative plan are you referring to? I've already pointed out that both staying on or indeed a managed withdrawal would be better, he had complete control over the date of withdrawal the Taliban broke the agreement he could have paused. Instead, he just pulled the rug out... this has already been pointed out to you - your response to that is that the Taliban would kick off... well they were doing that before the Trump deal so no change there.

 

[Jono8]

You don't need to know how best to have handled it in order to see that the way that it has been handled is pretty terrible... it isn't hard to see that Biden has screwed up here!



Nope, that's yours. If you feel I haven't backed up a particular claim or argument then go and quote it - it's not you good making vague claims here, quote the argument I've made.



What alternative plan are you referring to? I've already pointed out that both staying on or indeed a managed withdrawal would be better, he had complete control over the date of withdrawal the Taliban broke the agreement he could have paused. Instead, he just pulled the rug out... this has already been pointed out to you - your response to that is that the Taliban would kick off... well they were doing that before the Trump deal so no change there.

Again, what is this "managed" or "orderly" withdrawal you keep going on about. Can you explain that in more detail? What would you have done differently that would have guaranteed a completely different situation? What is the situation that you were even aiming for or would have liked to have seen?

 

[dowie]

Again, what is this "managed" or "orderly" withdrawal you keep going on about. Can you explain that in more detail? What would you have done differently that would have guaranteed a completely different situation? What is the situation that you were even aiming for or would have liked to have seen?

Why have you ignored my questions? I'm not the President of the US, I don't have a situation I'm aiming for. Personally, I'd have liked to see them maintain a presence, though at least he could have stuck to his promise to G7 leaders, not pulled the rug out and withdrawn support to the ANA, contractors etc.. kept enablers in place to secure Kabul etc..

 

[Jono8]

Why have you ignored my questions? I'm not the President of the US, I don't have a situation I'm aiming for. Personally, I'd have liked to see them maintain a presence, though at least he could have stuck to his promise to G7 leaders, not pulled the rug out and withdrawn support to the ANA, contractors etc.. kept enablers in place to secure Kabul etc..

What questions? This?

"What alternative plan are you referring to?"

I then asked you to elaborate on the alternative plans you stated just after

I am genuinely interest in what tactical and diplomatic masterstroke the great Dowie has got in his head, which would have clearly and irrefutably outdone the one devised by the US government and military commanders.

 

[dowie]

What questions? This?

"What alternative plan are you referring to?"

Yup and this claim:

Nope, that's yours. If you feel I haven't backed up a particular claim or argument then go and quote it - it's not you good making vague claims here, quote the argument I've made.

What specific argument are you referring to? You've made a claim and then ignored the request that you quote the argument you're refering to.

I then asked you to elaborate on the alternative plans you stated just after

I am genuinely interest in what tactical and diplomatic masterstroke the great Dowie has got in his head, which would have clearly and irrefutably outdone the one devised by the US government and military commanders.

Elaborate how? Be specific? You seem to be ignoring anything I say on that matter, or you're just not following/it's going over your head like conflating a lack of US casualties since 2016 with the Taliban being peaceful and not grasping that the US had withdrawn from major combat ops by then.

 

[Tefal]

Again, what is this "managed" or "orderly" withdrawal you keep going on about. Can you explain that in more detail? What would you have done differently that would have guaranteed a completely different situation? What is the situation that you were even aiming for or would have liked to have seen?

Supported the ANA as a staged withdrawl region by region was carried out?

 

[Jono8]

Yup and this claim:



What specific argument are you referring to? You've made a claim and then ignored the request that you quote the argument you're refering to.

Elaborate how? Be specific?

Your alternative plan that would have made everything go so smoothly. All i seem to have had are a few buzzwords and vague things like how they should have tried to negotiate more, or delay leaving for a bit.

You seem to be ignoring anything I say on that matter, or you're just not following/it's going over your head like conflating a lack of US casualties since 2016 with the Taliban being peaceful and not grasping that the US had withdrawn from major combat ops by then.

Ah the old "its going over your head" again. Yes we all know how smart you think you are .

Also, I already explained that i worded that poorly and was not what i meant Rather dishonest of you to then frame it otherwise again.