AMD 7nm GPU News and Rumours 2018/2019

[Beren]

Hey Folks,

Instead of polluting the Nvidia 2019 thread with AMD stuff how about we actually have one thread for AMD news and rumour and stop the bickering in that thread.

This is a thread for news/rumour and leaks of AMD cards. Can we please keep it to topic - unless there is a direct review mentioning an Nvidia card and a new AMD GPU keep opinions about other cards out of the thread please.

Mod's - Could you keep an eye open and delete anything not relevant so we actually have a thread of AMD related information.

It looks pretty certain that we are going to see Vega20 on 7nm in at least a limited release in the next three months for Pro Cards. It looks like wccf is trying to respin the same news as a rumour of a Consumer 7nm graphics card this year - at this point that seems unlikely, but I do think there is enough stacking up to suggest a 7nm card in Q1 2019, probably a mid sized Polaris replacement.

Do we think that the business that released a skunkworks threadripper on the down low is capable of releasing a gaming GPU based on Vega20? Is there anything out there at all that points to this?

I believe that both teams have a 1060/580 replacement in the works for a release Q4 2018 or Q1 2019. We are starting to see a few leaks, but I believe the quiet is because both are trying to not let anything slip to the other side on just how much power the mid range is going to get.

 

[orbitalwalsh]

https://wccftech.com/amd-confirms-new-7nm-radeon-graphics-cards-launching-in-2018/

^^^ every one takes with a pinch of salt from the above

But from q1/q2 roadmaps of multiple vendors, AMD Q4 GPU was listed but VERY vaguely - literally AMD GPU

best bet for them profit wise is to hit Polaris 580/70/60 replacement as Team greens projected route for their mid tier cards is a while off

 

[LePhuronn]

What is Vega 12? AMD's internal numbering system indicates this is a refinement of Vega 10. Is it a 7nm respin? Is it a cutdown Vega 10 for notebooks? Is Polaris replaced with Vega 12? But then what about the 12nm Polaris 30 rumours?

 

[BS Dave]

i wonder if it can do giga rays? Vega 20 sounds good enough for me to sell my g-sync (and buy a nice 4k vrr tv)

 

[Armageus]

Vega 10 = RX Vega56 and RX Vega64, also Radeon Instinct MI25
Vega 12 = ??? Speculative Polaris 11/12 replacement UNCONFIRMED
Vega 20 = Radeon Instinct refresh? + likely Vega56/64 refresh? Possibly 7nm? UNCONFIRMED
Vega 3/6/8/10/11 are all branding for APUs - which relates directly to the number of Compute Units - not to be confused with actual "core" names

Polaris 10 - RX 470/RX 480, also Radeon Instinct MI6
Polaris 11 - RX 460/RX560D
Polaris 12 - RX 550/RX 540
Polaris 20 - refreshed(14nm LPP process) Polaris 10 - RX570/RX580
Polaris 21 - refreshed(14nm LPP process) Polaris 11 - RX560
Polaris 22 - "Radeon RX Vega M GH" and "Radeon RX Vega M GL"-branded graphics on Intel chips.
Polaris 30 - Unconfirmed 12nm Polaris refresh RX680?

 

[EsaT]

Certainly lot depends on yields of 7nm process.
Mobile SoCs are whole lot smaller than high end GPUs.
Which is why I'm sceptical for big 7nm consumer GPU until some time after enterprise products.
Whose prices and unit volumes can afford lower yields.

Though because of market situation AMD obviously has zero reasons to hold up anything if it's economically reasonable
(and without hindering their long term plan too much)
But it's also equally certain that they don't want to give Nvidia time to make counter plans.

 

[JediFragger]

I personally think AMD will go straight to Navi and skip a Vega refresh (in the gaming space), esp if it is indeed a totally new architecture as rumoured.

 

[LePhuronn]

I personally think AMD will go straight to Navi and skip a Vega refresh (in the gaming space), esp if it is indeed a totally new architecture as rumoured.

Interesting, because I'd think the opposite and if 7nm is as good as AMD have said, given Vega 20 was brought forward a few months, there could be a good opportunity to get 7nm stretching its legs by respining the gaming Vega on 7nm, strapping Hynix HBM2 to it and having a crack at filling the gaping price hole left by RTX in the mid-tier until Navi comes out.

But then again, if Navi turns out as rumoured and is only a mid-tier architecture, it'd have to be significantly better than a respun 7nm RX Vega to warrant existing users to upgrade.

 

[jigger]

Interesting, because I'd think the opposite and if 7nm is as good as AMD have said, given Vega 20 was brought forward a few months, there could be a good opportunity to get 7nm stretching its legs by respining the gaming Vega on 7nm, strapping Hynix HBM2 to it and having a crack at filling the gaping price hole left by RTX in the mid-tier until Navi comes out.

But then again, if Navi turns out as rumoured and is only a mid-tier architecture, it'd have to be significantly better than a respun 7nm RX Vega to warrant existing users to upgrade.

I think it safe to say AMD wasn't happy with the 14nm version of Vega and it looks like a respin was in order for 7nm GF.

 

[Rroff]

Which is why I'm sceptical for big 7nm consumer GPU until some time after enterprise products.

TSMC is claiming - though we all know the history of foundry claims HAH - that 7nm is shaping up across the whole range of products from mobile to server CPUs, etc. at about the same speed. Given AMD's commitment albeit they don't exactly have a lot of choices I'm going to assume TSMC aren't completely talking out their behinds.

 

[EsaT]

TSMC is claiming - though we all know the history of foundry claims HAH - that 7nm is shaping up across the whole range of products from mobile to server CPUs, etc. at about the same speed. Given AMD's commitment albeit they don't exactly have a lot of choices I'm going to assume TSMC aren't completely talking out their behinds.

Actually also Qualcomm prioritized TSMC over Samsung for their 7nm chips:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/greats...er-samsung-for-its-latest-chips/#1543cc732569
And they certainly wouldn't have done that if TSMC's schedules/process maturing looked questionable.

TSMC certainly has resources to put into process development:
http://www.icinsights.com/news/bulletins/tsmc-continues-to-dominate-the-worldwide-foundry-market/
Then add also Apple likely having contributed to 7nm development funds at least indirectly.

 

[Samwell]

Hoping for 7nm might lead to a long wait. The problems of 7nm aren't only yields, bigger problem is capacity. With GF out and Samsung not getting their 7nm ready, we only have TSMC with a monopoly.
So who is fabbing at tsmc and wants to use 7nm? Apple, Qualcomm, Mediathek, Huawei, AMD, Nvidia + others.

What's happening is, all players are overbidding themselfes to get capacity from TSMC. Smartphone socs are small and margins are ok, so they come first. Next will be serverstuff with very good margins but lower yield, like V20 this year, Zen2 probably Q1, nvidias volta HPC successor Q2. it will go on from high margin to lower margin when there's enough capacity. As for AMD, after V20 and Zen2 Server, Zen2 Desktop will come mid year, as CPUs have better margins than GPUs and they can earn more money in that space. Navi might then fit in in Q3.

 

[Beren]

What's happening is, all players are overbidding themselfes to get capacity from TSMC. Smartphone socs are small and margins are ok, so they come first. Next will be serverstuff with very good margins but lower yield, like V20 this year, Zen2 probably Q1, nvidias volta HPC successor Q2. it will go on from high margin to lower margin when there's enough capacity. As for AMD, after V20 and Zen2 Server, Zen2 Desktop will come mid year, as CPUs have better margins than GPUs and they can earn more money in that space. Navi might then fit in in Q3.

You might be right for volume which would be a shame - I would expect a slight difference though, if I was AMD and I could make the cards I would sweet talk just enough wafers out of TSMC early to do a limited run, get some product out to the market and show what they were going to be capable of.

I think there is going to be something coming out of GlobalFoundries on 12nm. They have the process and the ability to produce Vega at all CU variants there.

 

[jigger]

Hoping for 7nm might lead to a long wait. The problems of 7nm aren't only yields, bigger problem is capacity. With GF out and Samsung not getting their 7nm ready, we only have TSMC with a monopoly.
So who is fabbing at tsmc and wants to use 7nm? Apple, Qualcomm, Mediathek, Huawei, AMD, Nvidia + others.

What's happening is, all players are overbidding themselfes to get capacity from TSMC. Smartphone socs are small and margins are ok, so they come first. Next will be serverstuff with very good margins but lower yield, like V20 this year, Zen2 probably Q1, nvidias volta HPC successor Q2. it will go on from high margin to lower margin when there's enough capacity. As for AMD, after V20 and Zen2 Server, Zen2 Desktop will come mid year, as CPUs have better margins than GPUs and they can earn more money in that space. Navi might then fit in in Q3.

The way it use to work was you taped out the designs then ordered X amount of wafers. What products go on the wafers would be up to the customer.

 

[jjgreenwood]

If this is anything like the Vega thread it'll go on for ages get massively hyped and then Navi will release with the same performance as a 2080 - late

 

[jigger]

If this is anything like the Vega thread it'll go on for ages get massively hyped and then Navi will release with the same performance as a 2080 - late

Don't allow yourself to get hyped up. Simple.

 

[shankly1985]

If this is anything like the Vega thread it'll go on for ages get massively hyped and then Navi will release with the same performance as a 2080 - late

Does it really matter though? So long has the user buying the product is happy. I bought VEGA even when the benchmarks was showing it loosing against the GTX 1080 now look at it VEGA 64 beats it in most titles.
AMD has its own key features to buying a Radeon vs GTX - AMD Radeon settings is much better something I always wanted when Geforce experience was king was AMD to release a killer driver package, they did and beat expectations.

 

[Zeed]

If this is anything like the Vega thread it'll go on for ages get massively hyped and then Navi will release with the same performance as a 2080 - late

Spot on. Maybe we make some sort of price pool of performance dissapoitment. Person that will be closest to how slow the next BIG gpu will be gets the money and buys one

so I think Navi will be MAXIMUM 2080ti performance - raytracing but cheaper. And everyone will be like.... Ye its fast but You dont have raytracing

Maybe It's a good thing AMD made a STEP BACK and look in to putting out first good card since 290x ?? Instead of rushing out overpriced slow on arival card like Fury X and Vega ?? I hope so.

@shankly1985
For me Vegas 64 biggest downfall was Pricing. If it was 100 pounds cheaper than it was it was good grab. Not at the Landing price and deffo not when crypto boom hit and vega was only good for miners at its price point :/

 

[FoxEye]

Don't allow yourself to get hyped up. Simple.

Also I'll be (pleasantly?) surprised if we see Navi before Q4'19.

But yeah... no hype. The AMD hype train was decommissioned and cut up for scrap value

Spot on. Maybe we make some sort of price pool of performance dissapoitment. Person that will be closest to how slow the next BIG gpu will be gets the money and buys one

so I think Navi will be MAXIMUM 2080ti performance - raytracing but cheaper. And everyone will be like.... Ye its fast but You dont have raytracing

I'm going to place a little confidence in the rumours that said Navi will be small, mid-range performing chip. I.e. something faster than a 1080 but not as fast at a 1080 Ti. Going to assume that AMD have given up on halo GPU products for now.

Makes sense that Navi will be the PS5 GPU (mainstream in PC terms) and will *not* be anywhere near a 2080Ti. Not a halo GPU at all.

 

[jigger]

Also I'll be (pleasantly?) surprised if we see Navi before Q4'19.

But yeah... no hype. The AMD hype train was decommissioned and cut up for scrap value

Did AMD ever have a hype train?