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Also consider capacity. I've said a few times before that I don't believe there is any technical reason why AMD can't trash the 2080 Ti right now with RDNA 1. Slap out 64 CUs on RDNA 1, paired with 12GB GDDR6 and that'll beat the 2080 Ti (if you roughly scale up 5700 XT performance). That Navi die wouldn't be much bigger than Vega 20, so TSMC wouldn't have problems making it either. So why don't AMD do it? Because EPYC makes a ton more money than a halo gaming GPU. TSMC's production is prioritised to the actual money makers. I expect to see this big Navi on RDNA 1 come out around August when Zen production moves to 7nm EUV, thereby freeing up 7nm vanilla capacity.
Except the longer Nvidia hold off on Ampere because AMD offers no reason for them to push, the closer we get to the new consoles coming out, and therefore RDNA 2. So AMD very possibly could only be 6 months behind, rather than years behind. And if Nvidia don't give stupendous performance across the board with Ampere, the gap AMD have to close is a good chunk smaller than what it's been, which opens up the possibility of getting their cards out more-or-less within the same cycle as Nvidia.
Indeed, if it comes to pass this way AMD have been handed a bit of a free catch up. Also define "Big Navi". That could still be RDNA 1, just taking Navi 10 up to 56, 64 and maybe even 80 CUs (TSMC can make a 7nm die that big) if AMD can keep the board power down. Drop that out there around Computex for August (say) availability. That's your 6 months right there.
That'll be RDNA 1; CU counts increasing over what we've seen so far.
That'll be RDNA 2, so we'll be waiting until next year to see this (and will likely be 6000 series). If Nvidia drop Ampere Q3 this year (for example) that does reduce AMD's catch-up time to less than a year, rather than years.
I'm sure it will. However, what has my curiousity is if this Navi23 is still a monolithic design or chiplet? That's because it's also rumored that Intel's entry into the GPU market will offer some sort of chiplet gpu sku. Not sure if it's high/mid/low end. And there was some sort of collaboration between Intel/AMD about it (going way back to Intel's Nuc designs).That'll be RDNA 1; CU counts increasing over what we've seen so far.
That'll be RDNA 2, so we'll be waiting until next year to see this (and will likely be 6000 series). If Nvidia drop Ampere Q3 this year (for example) that does reduce AMD's catch-up time to less than a year, rather than years.
Let's hope this comes to pass
Poor Volta, you keep waiting for the disruption
on a serious note let’s hope they do something to get the market competitive again at the high end.
I have the same concerns as you. Add to that driver support as far as my experience, so far going to latest drivers didn't help my experience, crossfire was rendered useless and had to go back to previous drivers. I want AMD to be able to compete up there and was stung badly by the Vega hype.I just dont think 30% faster than 2080Ti is going to be enough and we are going to be in the same situation as the vega64 vs 2080TI. Which was 25-30 slower. AMD need to be at least 40% faster because this time round
i really do believe nvidia is going to be 50% faster than 2080Ti. They are on a new 7nm node and they are already very power efficient architecture and have lots of room to spare on the die for silicon. Even at 40% faster i stll
think navi will be slower than Ampere 3090Ti, but at least it would be near enough to compete. I just dont see a ryzen type takeover by AMD over nvidia. Nvidia has not been sleep like intel was.
I really want to go all AMD this time round. CPU, motherboard and graphics card like the old days. Hope they dont do a VEGA hype train on us.
Also hope this type round AMD gfx card partners make nice looking cards. Usually AMD card look pants and nvidia card look very nice with great build quality. I really hope this time we get it all, great fast card, good prices, nice looking and great build quality and cooling.
i am asking for too much
we never got Volta, we got the shaft Turing style
