AMD Navi 23 ‘NVIDIA Killer’ GPU Rumored to Support Hardware Ray Tracing, Coming Next Year

[FoxEye]

Nobody knows what the new consoles are going to cost, and there has been talk of the full-fat XSX being £699 or so, with a cheaper variant somewhere between £300 and £500.

Lots (and lots) of people thinking that the next gen consoles will see a fairly steep price increase.

Also no shortage of people willing to say that it would still be "great value" compared to the cost of a full PC system, even at the higher prices. Lots of people saying, "Yeah, I'd pay £650 for that." Etc.

A 2080Ti for £400 is wishful thinking until and unless it materialises, or we have some concrete leaks or announcements.

 

[EastCoastHandle]

If the rumors are true that they have a:
80 cu at 505mm2
80+ cu at ?? mm2
96 cu at ?? mm2
Then there are the higher cu variants which I assume are workstation based. Then it really does ponder the question how "Crysis like" these next gen console games are going to be? When it comes to taxing the hardware.

I've had a second thought of price. Amd might cannibalize PC RDNA 2 with console RDNA 2 if they charge nvidia like price structure for it. IE: Drive people to buy consoles instead.

Besides Amd isnt constrianed with a certain profit level like nvidia. So it's not out of the quesion to assume whatever the price is for PC RDNA 2 it shouldnt be as high as we thought.

Unless Sony and Ms have a halo console they want to charge for.

We will see

 

[BigBANGtheory]

It will come eventually but I tend to agree it seems unlikely that it will be this year. Hard to say what AMD really mean by disruption and what that means to consumers at this point just not enough to go on.

 

[FoxEye]

It will come eventually but I tend to agree it seems unlikely that it will be this year. Hard to say what AMD really mean by disruption and what that means to consumers at this point just not enough to go on.

Worth noting AMD also said Polaris would be disruptive ("Poor Volta") and... erm... yeah. How we laughed.

(AMD do make some good products but their marketing is always awful!)

 

[Poneros]

Nobody knows what the new consoles are going to cost, and there has been talk of the full-fat XSX being £699 or so, with a cheaper variant somewhere between £300 and £500.

Lots (and lots) of people thinking that the next gen consoles will see a fairly steep price increase.

Also no shortage of people willing to say that it would still be "great value" compared to the cost of a full PC system, even at the higher prices. Lots of people saying, "Yeah, I'd pay £650 for that." Etc.

A 2080Ti for £400 is wishful thinking until and unless it materialises, or we have some concrete leaks or announcements.

Nobody knows what they will cost, but we absolutely know what they won't cost. Consoles try to hit near BOM & they are also VERY price sensitive (Bloomberg says it's $450 BOM). In fact, I'm so sure of this I'd happily bet you the full 699 that they will not reach that. I'll even give it to you for 1:2 odds.

$699 rumours are sheer lunacy from console wars forum nobodies and fly in the face of console market history & logic. Again, I'll happily make this bet with ANYONE and as many times as possible. There's 0% chance of it ever passing (or really, even reaching) $600. Let alone pounds..

 

[melmac]

Worth noting AMD also said Polaris would be disruptive ("Poor Volta") and... erm... yeah. How we laughed.

poor Volta was long after Polaris. AMD were very frank about the performance of Polaris. It was only certain members of the forums over hyped the 480.

 

[FoxEye]

poor Volta was long after Polaris. AMD were very frank about the performance of Polaris. It was only certain members of the forums over hyped the 480.

My bad, "Poor Volta" was for Vega.

I was thinking of the "Radeon Rebellion" campaign, which was where they billed the Polaris cards as "disruptive".

e: They also billed the 480 as "bringing VR to the masses".

 

[Grim5]

My bad, "Poor Volta" was for Vega.

I was thinking of the "Radeon Rebellion" campaign, which was where they billed the Polaris cards as "disruptive".

e: They also billed the 480 as "bringing VR to the masses".

Well technically you can still do VR on the 480, but it will just be everything set to low and you need to use a low resolution headset

 

[BigBANGtheory]

Its certainly sounding better this time but I think your are right to be cautious, after all undercutting Nvidia price/perf by 20% might seem disruptive to the AMD CFO

 

[Panos]

If the rumors are true that they have a:
80 cu at 505mm2
80+ cu at ?? mm2
96 cu at ?? mm2
Then there are the higher cu variants which I assume are workstation based. Then it really does ponder the question how "Crysis like" these next gen console games are going to be? When it comes to taxing the hardware.

I've had a second thought of price. Amd might cannibalize PC RDNA 2 with console RDNA 2 if they charge nvidia like price structure for it. IE: Drive people to buy consoles instead.

Besides Amd isnt constrianed with a certain profit level like nvidia. So it's not out of the quesion to assume whatever the price is for PC RDNA 2 it shouldnt be as high as we thought.

Unless Sony and Ms have a halo console they want to charge for.

We will see

Lets start from this. The Xbox APU with 56 CU is 360.45mm² including I/O die & 8 core Zen 2.
It is made at 7nm so know that 8 core chiplet is around 74-76mm2.
If the same dumb I/O is integrated to the APU, 7nm from 12nm I/O die is 50% shrinking, so 125/2 62.45mm² the new I/O die.
Why 50% used, 12nm Glofo is 33.8 MTr/mm² and TSMC 7nm is 66.7 MTr/mm². So for the same amount of transistors half the size needed. Assuming the same dumb I/O die is used and not something clever like the one on PS5 which looks really clever and advanced.

360.45 - (74+62.45) = 224mm² for 56CU CPU. (52 are used on Xbox the other 4 are cut off to improve yields).

5700XT is 251mm² for 40CUs (~16% is empty space on the die as seen bellow) and includes it's own I/O die also. (another 20%). So 40CUs are around 160mm² which seem about right as for each CU the "space" needed is close between the Xbox APU & 5700XT.

So 80CU GPU could be around 320mm² + 20% I/O (384mm²) + what ever empty space AMD needs to fill to make the chip. So nowhere near 505mm2.
And that assuming doesn't go 7nm+ where results to 17% smaller die.

Someone might say Xbox & PS5 APUs are on "7nm Enhanced" not 7nm like Navi/Zen 2, however shouldn't be confused with 7nm+.
The transistor density between "7nm enhanced" and "7nm" is the same. The "enhanced" process reduces power consumption & improves performance.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/14687/tsmc-announces-performanceenhanced-7nm-5nm-process-technologies

Again numbers in approximation of 1-2% haven't taken exact measurements, stop bashing if something is 20mm bigger or smaller

 

[greatash]

A 2080Ti for £400 is wishful thinking until and unless it materialises, or we have some concrete leaks or announcements.

The way I see it is that the 2080ti is not that much faster than a 2070S/5700XT, about 30%? If we dont have a 30% performance increase at the £400~ range i.e. a 6700XT or 3070 that'll be in and around the 2080ti performance that will be very disappointing just like Turing. I dont think they can pull off another 10-15% perf increase like Turing as Nvidia now has the consoles and RDNA2 to compete with. I'd instead pay £500-600ish for a PS5, use that for 2-3 years and skip another gpu gen if AMD/Nvidia let us down.

My max budget will be £500 for a GPU and if its not 2080ti performance whats the point when you can get a full console box with 2080S~ performance for the same price.

 

[TheRealDeal]

Nobody knows what the new consoles are going to cost, and there has been talk of the full-fat XSX being £699 or so, with a cheaper variant somewhere between £300 and £500.

Lots (and lots) of people thinking that the next gen consoles will see a fairly steep price increase.

Also no shortage of people willing to say that it would still be "great value" compared to the cost of a full PC system, even at the higher prices. Lots of people saying, "Yeah, I'd pay £650 for that." Etc.

A 2080Ti for £400 is wishful thinking until and unless it materialises, or we have some concrete leaks or announcements.

I am expecting them to cost more but mainly because the pound has taken a hammering. The profit on consoles come from software sales along with peripherals. If they raise the price to much they risk having less buyers so less software sales. They have to keep the price reasonably attainable for the masses. Totally different market compared to PC where hardware is the profit.

 

[Phixsator]

Lets start from this. The Xbox APU with 56 CU is 360.45mm² including I/O die & 8 core Zen 2.
It is made at 7nm so know that 8 core chiplet is around 74-76mm2.
If the same dumb I/O is integrated to the APU, 7nm from 12nm I/O die is 50% shrinking, so 125/2 62.45mm² the new I/O die.
Why 50% used, 12nm Glofo is 33.8 MTr/mm² and TSMC 7nm is 66.7 MTr/mm². So for the same amount of transistors half the size needed. Assuming the same dumb I/O die is used and not something clever like the one on PS5 which looks really clever and advanced.

360.45 - (74+62.45) = 224mm² for 56CU CPU. (52 are used on Xbox the other 4 are cut off to improve yields).

5700XT is 251mm² for 40CUs (~16% is empty space on the die as seen bellow) and includes it's own I/O die also. (another 20%). So 40CUs are around 160mm² which seem about right as for each CU the "space" needed is close between the Xbox APU & 5700XT.

So 80CU GPU could be around 320mm² + 20% I/O (384mm²) + what ever empty space AMD needs to fill to make the chip. So nowhere near 505mm2.
And that assuming doesn't go 7nm+ where results to 17% smaller die.

Someone might say Xbox & PS5 APUs are on "7nm Enhanced" not 7nm like Navi/Zen 2, however shouldn't be confused with 7nm+.
The transistor density between "7nm enhanced" and "7nm" is the same. The "enhanced" process reduces power consumption & improves performance.

https://www.anandtech.com/show/14687/tsmc-announces-performanceenhanced-7nm-5nm-process-technologies

Again numbers in approximation of 1-2% haven't taken exact measurements, stop bashing if something is 20mm bigger or smaller

Spoiler: pic

I'm fairly certain that the consoles will be on 7nm EUV after hearing coreteks argument for that.

 

[BigBANGtheory]

TSMC 7nm DUV = N7 = Mass Effect case closed for GPUs LUL

 

[tyler_jrb]

Nobody knows what they will cost, but we absolutely know what they won't cost. Consoles try to hit near BOM & they are also VERY price sensitive (Bloomberg says it's $450 BOM). In fact, I'm so sure of this I'd happily bet you the full 699 that they will not reach that. I'll even give it to you for 1:2 odds.

$699 rumours are sheer lunacy from console wars forum nobodies and fly in the face of console market history & logic. Again, I'll happily make this bet with ANYONE and as many times as possible. There's 0% chance of it ever passing (or really, even reaching) $600. Let alone pounds..

I’m betting the ps5 comes in at £549. XSX £649. I wouldn’t be surprised if the X comes in at more.

Let’s not forget the original X was £450. And that came with a die and hard drive that was probably less costly to produce than a packet of crisps. Even the X made them a loss.

You’re talking $2-300 alone for just the die and SSD on the series X possibly more. Never mind the cost of all the other board electronics, expensive GDDR6, secondary chipset board, custom power supply, custom case, custom cooler and other extras in the box.

At $450 might as well give them away for free and leave $450 cash in the box.

 

[FoxEye]

I’m betting the ps5 comes in at £549. XSX £649. I wouldn’t be surprised if the X comes in at more.

Yeah this is what I'm bracing for. Any less and I'll be (somewhat) pleasantly surprised. But I think those numbers are fairly on the money.

Also the persistent rumours of cut-down consoles for 1080p, and those could hit the traditional £350-£400 price points.

 

[Zeeflyboy]

I think the fact the rumours of a lower price "lockheart" version still abound points to a higher than traditional price point for the Xbox series X.

Obviously neither company necessarily needs to make a profit on the box at the start, and can eat a certain amount of loss if needed but they will surely be looking to minimise that. My own personal projection is £499 for ps5 and £549 for Xbox series X, with lockheart launching later (for now Xbox one X fills that niche if the price moves down a bit accordingly) at more like £279. If Microsoft are feeling especially aggressive I could see them launching at 499 or close to it if Sony does manage to hit that price point and just eating any upfront losses.

Will be interesting to see how they turn out price wise!

 

[melmac]

I will be very surprised if the next consoles are much more than £500. It's not about making profit with the sale of the console, it's about getting your console into as many homes as possible so that they can sell you software etc for that console for the next 5 years.

 

[HRL]

The way I see it is that the 2080ti is not that much faster than a 2070S/5700XT, about 30%? If we dont have a 30% performance increase at the £400~ range i.e. a 6700XT or 3070 that'll be in and around the 2080ti performance that will be very disappointing just like Turing. I dont think they can pull off another 10-15% perf increase like Turing as Nvidia now has the consoles and RDNA2 to compete with. I'd instead pay £500-600ish for a PS5, use that for 2-3 years and skip another gpu gen if AMD/Nvidia let us down.

My max budget will be £500 for a GPU and if its not 2080ti performance whats the point when you can get a full console box with 2080S~ performance for the same price.

Average performance difference between a 2070S and a 2080Ti is about 40% stock, up to 55% when OC'd. I wouldn't say they were that close. Equally the prices aren't close either though.

https://gpu.userbenchmark.com/Compare/Nvidia-RTX-2080-Ti-vs-Nvidia-RTX-2070S-Super/4027vs4048

Personally, I'd expect the new consoles to try to aim for the magic less than £500 mark. You know, £499.99.

 

[Poneros]

I’m betting the ps5 comes in at £549. XSX £649. I wouldn’t be surprised if the X comes in at more.

Let’s not forget the original X was £450. And that came with a die and hard drive that was probably less costly to produce than a packet of crisps. Even the X made them a loss.

You’re talking $2-300 alone for just the die and SSD on the series X possibly more. Never mind the cost of all the other board electronics, expensive GDDR6, secondary chipset board, custom power supply, custom case, custom cooler and other extras in the box.

At $450 might as well give them away for free and leave $450 cash in the box.

Prior Initial BoM Losses
Xbox: No data available.
Xbox 360: $125-$252 per unit ($525 - $552 BoM / $299 No HDD / $399 HDD)
Xbox One: $33 per unit (457 + $75 Kinect BoM / $499)
Xbox One X: None ($442 BoM / $499)

PlayStation: $130 per unit ($430 BoM / $299)
PlayStation 2: $179 per unit ($479 BoM / $299)
PlayStation 3: $305 per unit ($805 BoM / $499 20GB HDD / $599 60GB HDD)
PlayStation 4: None ($381 BoM / $399)
PlayStation 4 Pro: None ($318 BoM / $399)

The PS4, released in 2013 at a retail price of $399, was estimated by IHS Markit to cost $381 to manufacture. With the $450 unit cost and a similar gross margin, the PlayStation 5’s retail price would have to be at least $470.

Now let's look at what goes into the BOM & think about what actually goes up in price and what doesn't, if you look at it carefully you'll realise most components go down in price or stay near the same (talking PSU, electrical components etc.) and as for the tech licensed from AMD, probably doesn't go up a whole lot and silicon does go up initially but also won't be hugely different (because they keep the fabs running for years for that). Remember, they don't buy the GPU/CPU, they buy wafers! So you can't look at the cost as if you're shopping at OCUK for yourself.

All that being said, I expect it to be around 499, likely for both of them but wouldn't be shocked if it's 549 either. The real ? is SSD costs, as the NAND flash is usually the most costly part of the BOM though I suspect PS5's special controller is gonna cost a pretty penny as well. Perhaps there's cost reductions to be had here long term since flash can scale down in cost more easily than HDDs (which have a floor of $40 regardless of capacity), which could mean they eat cost now but break-even on it over its life. Plus MS also has the licensed SSDs on which they'll get proper margins, so that's some $ back as well.

Average performance difference between a 2070S and a 2080Ti is about 40% stock, up to 55% when OC'd. I wouldn't say they were that close. Equally the prices aren't close either though.
https://gpu.userbenchmark.com/Compare/Nvidia-RTX-2080-Ti-vs-Nvidia-RTX-2070S-Super/4027vs4048
Personally, I'd expect the new consoles to try to aim for the magic less than £500 mark. You know, £499.99.

Don't use crap sites like that, the difference isn't 55% WTF! Look at my previous post where I link to TPU. It's 20% (1080p) to 30% (4K). And before you say that this one has a higher PL, it doesn't reach clocks higher than ones with 215w limit (https://www.techpowerup.com/review/zotac-geforce-rtx-2070-super-amp-extreme/33.html). I just linked the HOF because it's fresh benchmarks.

https://www.techpowerup.com/review/galax-geforce-rtx-2070-super-hof-10-year/27.html