Nice symbolic milestone. 
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AMD on the road to recovery.
- Thread starter humbug
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People just buy a Laptop or a Desktop Computer, they don't even know what all those different coloured stickers on them mean, if its in budget, looks cool and suits their needs they will buy it.
All Intel really have to do is flood the market, make 18 different variants of the same CPU and stuff them in to far more machines than AMD can.
Look, AMD are selling everything they make and its not enough, if they could make more they would sell more, a lot more.
TSMC know the demand is there, and they are growing their output all the time, but you can't double or triple your capacity over night, massive new buildings have to be built, extremely complex equipment installed.
All Intel really have to do is flood the market, make 18 different variants of the same CPU and stuff them in to far more machines than AMD can.
Look, AMD are selling everything they make and its not enough, if they could make more they would sell more, a lot more.
TSMC know the demand is there, and they are growing their output all the time, but you can't double or triple your capacity over night, massive new buildings have to be built, extremely complex equipment installed.
In the DIY Space, our space, fam, AMD out sell Intel by multiple factors, you have seen those mindfactory slides AMD are consistently 8X the sales of Intel, AMD sell more of their best selling SKU than Intel sell CPU's.
Amazon best sellers the top 6 CPU's are and have been for a year now consistently Ryzen, the 5900X, 5800X and 5600X are consistently in the top 6 row. you never see any Intel CPU in that row.
The vast majority of those who understand what it is they are looking at chose Ryzen.
Still on the up, it may settle down again at some point but it looks like around $100 is the new normal for AMD.
That puts them at a market cap of $120 to $130 Billion, today Intel are at $215 Billion.
That puts them at a market cap of $120 to $130 Billion, today Intel are at $215 Billion.
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I almost forgot... if the Xilinx buyout goes ahead it will merge with AMD, Xilinx shares and value will be added to AMD (A Borg joke in there probably) and with that AMD's market cap will jump to about $150 to $170 Billion.
Intel made a marketing spiel about their 10nm being better than TSMC 7nm, so is it just their X86 architecture that's bad?
PS: Intel are renaming all their nodes to fall in line with how they think they compare to TSMC.
PS2: AMD's 14nm chips also used half the power of Intel's 14nm.
That's true.
AMD hit $110 today.
Its got to top out at some point soon.
This is getting a little silly now...
That's not how i meant it, Yahoo Finance, which unlike Seeking Alpha updates the market cap live, they currently have AMD valued at $145 Billion, Intel are valued at $215 Billion.
At this point if or when AMD hoovers up Xilinx that cap will jump to about $180 Billion, with Xilinx it would take AMD's revenue from $20 Billion in 2022 to about $30 Billion in 2023, with the predicted growth. AMD are growing about 30% annually on their own.
AMD's rapid value growth is generated obviously by their success, every quarter they are beating their own estimates which you could argue they are deliberately underestimating their growth, but in fact they are beating recognised analysts estimates by even wider margins, consistently.
These people see AMD consistently delivering on promises, executing their roadmaps always on time and with better than predicted results, they see AMD innovating new technology left right and centre, expanding their business all over the place and constantly defying the few pundits who still dare to say AMD are just a flash in the pan.
Meanwhile their only rival as far as these people are concerned, Intel, are failing to execute their roadmaps, consistently, Intel over promise and under deliver in every metric, their margins are falling because they are having to increase the amount of sugar they bake in to their cakes to keep OEM's from using AMD and still failing to prevent that.
People are starting to drink the AMD coolaid which is great but with it comes expectation, they are starting to see AMD a bit like an Apple or an Nvidia, these people will expect AMD to keep this up and that becomes a problem because if AMD can't keep getting fatter at this rate these people will get upset.
It would be wise for AMD not to touch too much of this mountain of money people are investing in to them, they have already tapped in to $35 Billion of it at $85 a share, if it goes wrong for AMD and these people pull too much of their money out of AMD that money starts to become a debt, currently AMD are debt free, but they are still recovering, right now by this financial statement they have $2.7 Billion in cash, that's actual cash savings, next year that is expected to grow to $5 Billion, that's not a lot, total dissolvable assets today is about $11 Billion, again not a lot. They need a free cash flow of about $20 Billion to be strong, at this rate it will take another 5 years to get there.
So they are still vulnerable. As i said as long as they don't tap too much in to that mountain of investment money they will be good, but they are about to tap in to $35 Billion of it, its a risk but you don't get ahead without taking them.
I thought Intel's 10nm+ was supposed to make them competitive on the efficiency front again? so much so that Intel renamed 10nm+ to "Intel 7" to better communicate an equivalence to TSMC.
So why are AMD's chip's still twice the performance per what? Either your "Intel 7" process is junk compared to TSMC or your X86 architecture is very inefficient compared with AMD.
Intel talk a lot, they like to say a lot of things, make a lot of bold claims, while talking do they assume people are stupid? That's what really irks me about companies like this, what they say is always entirely different from reality and its insulting to anyone who can read.
So why are AMD's chip's still twice the performance per what? Either your "Intel 7" process is junk compared to TSMC or your X86 architecture is very inefficient compared with AMD.
Intel talk a lot, they like to say a lot of things, make a lot of bold claims, while talking do they assume people are stupid? That's what really irks me about companies like this, what they say is always entirely different from reality and its insulting to anyone who can read.
Wait for Milan-X to take a giant dump on Intel's campfire.... I find Intel's CPU business incredibly boring, tedious even.
Yeah, graphics is where its at, just shut up about your crappy CPU's Intel, i want to know more about your graphics.
Yeah, graphics is where its at, just shut up about your crappy CPU's Intel, i want to know more about your graphics.
136 Billion Dollars!!!!!!!!! *evil laugh*
Just a few years ago in revenue terms Intel was literally 10X the size of AMD.
At the end of this financial year that ratio will be around 4 to 5X.
With that in mind AMD have no business being a $140 Billion company, if the Xilinx purchase goes through AMD will be a $180 Billion company. This against Intel at $220 Billion.
A lot of detractors make this point on investment message boards, and at face value it would seem they have a point, but its far more complex than that.
A companies market cap, which is its valuation, is directly tied to how much money is invested in the company, its nothing, directly at least, to do with the size and revenue, its about how much confidence investors have in the company.
So here's the thing, Intel's revenue year on year is flat, their margins have fallen 10 percentage points in the last 4 years, from about 65% to 55% that's HUGE.
Their X86 market share is also in decline with no sign of that abating let alone any growth.
AMD on the other-hand, in the last 4 years their revenue has gone up 4 fold, their margins by 10 percentage points from about 40% to 50%, their X86 market is up 10 fold and they have great prospects for further significant growth, they appear to be an Nvidia / Apple / Intel in the making and rapidly, what's more its at Intel's expense.
That's why AMD are valued so high, but its tentative, AMD have access to that mountain of money but if they do access too much of it people could get spooked and pull their money out, at which point the money AMD used from that pot becomes debt, AMD right now are completely debt free, unlike Intel who have $100 Billlion of debt and a stagnant revenue stream and market share contraction, which is not a good place to be in.
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If Intel keeps declining more people will pull their money out, in turn their market cap shrinks while at the same time their debts increase.
Currently at a ratio of $100 Billion debt to $220 Billion market cap, eventually there comes a point where that ratio makes people panic and pull their money out on mass.
Intel are not to big to fail, in the same way Nokia was not too big to fail, where people money is concerned there is only so much confidence and good will.
Its why Intel are so aggressive with marketing, they are constantly trying to reassure the money men, they are in panic mode.
Currently at a ratio of $100 Billion debt to $220 Billion market cap, eventually there comes a point where that ratio makes people panic and pull their money out on mass.
Intel are not to big to fail, in the same way Nokia was not too big to fail, where people money is concerned there is only so much confidence and good will.
Its why Intel are so aggressive with marketing, they are constantly trying to reassure the money men, they are in panic mode.
Intel can't have 100 Billion Dollars debt
It is actually *only* 35 Billion Dollars.
How Much Debt Does Intel Carry?
You can click the graphic below for the historical numbers, but it shows that Intel had US$35.4b of debt in March 2021, down from US$39.9b, one year before. However, because it has a cash reserve of US$22.4b, its net debt is less, at about US$13.0b.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) Seems To Use Debt Quite Sensibly - Simply Wall St News
That completely ignores long term debt, its the credit card but not the mortgage,
You're sort of right tho i should have checked my figures..
Intel's long term debt is just shy of $70 Billion, with Shareholders equity of $85 Billion, the later is how much of Intel's assets shareholder own.
https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/INTC/intel/debt-equity-ratio
Notice how she never mentions the competition, is very humble about herself, her company and its products, doesn't give anything away about what her plans are.
Contrast that with a typical Intel in public who do nothing but snark at their competitors, congratulate themselves like deluded narcissist, and overhype their roadmaps.
One is comfortable and confident, the other is not.
Contrast that with a typical Intel in public who do nothing but snark at their competitors, congratulate themselves like deluded narcissist, and overhype their roadmaps.
One is comfortable and confident, the other is not.
