AMD on the road to recovery.

[humbug]

Intel must have a plan B, they probably have a new architecture ready to lay out on 12nm.or some such or they could go down the AMD route and stitch together a few of their 4c/8t high perf chips ala Ryzen and play AMD at their own game?

Cannon Lake will be refactored for 14nm++++++++++ which is delayed until second half of 2019, in other words the years end, maybe, if it doesn't get delayed again.

Running your own fabs is expensive and when you no longer have the market practically to yourself its starts to become unsustainable, AMD sold their fabs more than a decade ago, for this reason.

 

[Panos]

I hear GloFo have a 12nm process not doing much

Intel must have a plan B, they probably have a new architecture ready to lay out on 12nm.or some such or they could go down the AMD route and stitch together a few of their 4c/8t high perf chips ala Ryzen and play AMD at their own game?

It takes half decade to produce new architecture similar to Ryzen, and AMD has pattended it's way there.
And as we have seen the chips are pretty big to work at High Power node in 12 & 14nm, look at the resent overheating of such High Power chips made by Intel.
Current Ryzen are Lower Power CPUs, with peak perf/power at around 3.5Ghz.

Back in August the financial analysts were saying that AMD is couple of years ahead of Intel, and a year ahead of Nvidia at least.
While everone was expecting Intel to produce 10nm on Q4 2019. As it goes now, AMD going to be on 5nm EUV before Intel has the next process up. (AMD 7nm+ EUV products due 2020).

And all these are build by Apple's money, ironic......

 

[DarrenM343]

Hope you bought the AMD shares now they are low...

https://semiaccurate.com/2018/10/22/intel-kills-off-the-10nm-process/

+6% today. Maybe some have bought a few shares? I haven't bought but still holding some anyway.
Unsure whether they'll quickly recover back to the high. There's plenty of good news about and release of quarterly results is very soon, but the share price was very high already (at the top). Longer term defnately good potential and I won't be too surprised if they jump on the results

 

[RavenXXX2]

 

[humbug]

This is now starting to look pretty serious for Intel.

 

[beany_bot]

How long till AMD start cranking prices and turning the thumb screws just as Nvidia and Intel have done over the years of dominance.

 

[humbug]

How long till AMD start cranking prices and turning the thumb screws just as Nvidia and Intel have done over the years of dominance.

That is a good question, my hope is AMD continue with low prices in a bid to claw back tones of market share from Intel, it seems to be working.

 

[beany_bot]

This is now starting to look pretty serious for Intel.

Be nice if @Gibbo did some similar graphics in relation to OCUK sales. Would save us posting competitor graphics, blurring prices and be interesting because typically more "enthusiasts" shop at OCUK. rather than Joe Public at rainforest.

 

[beany_bot]

That is a good question, my hope is AMD continue with low prices in a bid to claw back tones of market share from Intel, it seems to be working.

It may or may not be naive but I genuinely believe that AMD have a better business "ethos" than Nvidia or Intel. Maybe it just comes from having their hand forced as the underdog for the past while. But I don't know. I just believe a lot of the staff, company and Directors just "play fair" more than green and blue. (Open source this and that being a good example). I certainly trust Lisa as a person a lot more than Jensen and whomever Intel have as *CEO *insert current CEO at given time here. Dunno. I just much prefer them as a company. They seem plucky and genuinely don't want to rip their customers off. I've met a few AMD staff over the years and they seem to really really believe in the company and are passionate about their customers. Intel is just uber corporate and Nvidia uber greedy.

 

[NinjaCool]

AMD is rocking it!

Spoiler: Meanwhile at intel

 

[4K8KW10]

It may or may not be naive but I genuinely believe that AMD have a better business "ethos" than Nvidia or Intel. Maybe it just comes from having their hand forced as the underdog for the past while. But I don't know. I just believe a lot of the staff, company and Directors just "play fair" more than green and blue. (Open source this and that being a good example). I certainly trust Lisa as a person a lot more than Jensen and whomever Intel have as *CEO *insert current CEO at given time here. Dunno. I just much prefer them as a company. They seem plucky and genuinely don't want to rip their customers off. I've met a few AMD staff over the years and they seem to really really believe in the company and are passionate about their customers. Intel is just uber corporate and Nvidia uber greedy.

nVidia charges premium, while Intel are right now vulnerable because they still keep their manufacturing arm under their ownership, hence for them it is more important to charge premium.
But that is a double-edge sword because customers begin to learn that paying more, essentially for the same, is not good.

 

[Caracus2k]

That is a good question, my hope is AMD continue with low prices in a bid to claw back tones of market share from Intel, it seems to be working.

Thoose long enough to have been a round last time AMD were the performance champs remember chips like 2003`s fx-51 with a launch msrp of $733 that's circa $1,005 2018 dollars

The CPU market has changed a lot in 15 years but it does out the $488 msrp i9 9900k in some context.

No guarantee that AMD won't react to normal market situations pricing wise if they get back on top performance wise.

I think the view that AMD are the consumer champions is a rather myopic view of history more reliant in their market share and the relative performance (or sometimes lack thereof) of their products then any altruistic company ethos

 

[DragonQ]

Absolutely, if AMD take significant market share and feel confident that they can hold onto it, they will raise prices. Sadly even with AMD back from the brink, it's still a duopoly, so the only thing that will keep prices decent is continued competition. Each company leap-frogging the other every year or two would be ideal and that requires both companies making enough of a profit to continue research and development - hopefully we won't see a repeat of the illegal practices that Intel employed in the 2000s that would ruin that.

I can see Intel falling behind for a year or two because they have been complacent for too long, but they have plenty of cash and will be kicked up the arse to get back to their best. The pendulum will swing and hopefully it doesn't stop for an extended period again.

 

[beany_bot]

Absolutely, if AMD take significant market share and feel confident that they can hold onto it, they will raise prices. Sadly even with AMD back from the brink, it's still a duopoly, so the only thing that will keep prices decent is continued competition. Each company leap-frogging the other every year or two would be ideal and that requires both companies making enough of a profit to continue research and development - hopefully we won't see a repeat of the illegal practices that Intel employed in the 2000s that would ruin that.

I can see Intel falling behind for a year or two because they have been complacent for too long, but they have plenty of cash and will be kicked up the arse to get back to their best. The pendulum will swing and hopefully it doesn't stop for an extended period again.

Indeed.

This is the current pendulum in the GPU segment.

 

[Distracted]

Indeed.

This is the current pendulum in the GPU segment.

I think it has more moss than that

 

[humbug]

It may or may not be naive but I genuinely believe that AMD have a better business "ethos" than Nvidia or Intel. Maybe it just comes from having their hand forced as the underdog for the past while. But I don't know. I just believe a lot of the staff, company and Directors just "play fair" more than green and blue. (Open source this and that being a good example). I certainly trust Lisa as a person a lot more than Jensen and whomever Intel have as *CEO *insert current CEO at given time here. Dunno. I just much prefer them as a company. They seem plucky and genuinely don't want to rip their customers off. I've met a few AMD staff over the years and they seem to really really believe in the company and are passionate about their customers. Intel is just uber corporate and Nvidia uber greedy.

I think its probably forced, but i know what you mean, i have had conversation with some AMD staffers and they do seem genuine. Robert Halock for example https://youtu.be/vZgpHTaQ10k?t=221

AMD have also been at the receiving end of some really dodgy stuff from nVidia and particulary Intel over a lot of years and i think that has also shaped their attitude and thinking.
They are the underdog and as a personality they do feel more like geeks passionate about their work and the PC enthusiast industry.
This may trigger some people but i feel Intel are much more like soulless accountants and sales men than impassioned engineers, AMD always have been and still are more innovative than Intel, perhaps by need of being the underdogs but IMO AMD are more about thinking outside the box and finding clever solutions to technology problems, i could list examples but i think most know what i'm talking about, 64Bit, First true multicore, integrating the Memory Controller, GDD5 Memory, HBM memory, HSA..... Infinity Fabric, a very clever solution to the problems of very high core count CPU's, and capable, yes Bulldozer was a pile of crap but they dusted themselves down and made a CPU with the same IPC as Intel latest and greatest when the school of thought was there was no way Intels IPC could be touched, no way back for AMD, in fact AMD's SMT is more efficient than Intel's when everyone said; well Intel has the experience with it so how could AMD match it....
Well ok so listed most of it, AMD's capabilities have always been underrated, they are clever guys, they know what they are doing, and they make mistakes, they are human.

 

[Panos]

How long till AMD start cranking prices and turning the thumb screws just as Nvidia and Intel have done over the years of dominance.

Depends. Due to the Ryzen design their product is very cheap to make. Whole 1950X and had $170 BOM cost.
Yes their margin to street was 500% but contemplate that we are talking about a 16 core CPU here. The equivalent Intel one is double the price and costs more than the AMD to make it.
Same applies to Ryzen 3/5/7. A Ryzen 3 (1200X for example) to 5 to 7 are no different CPUs. Is the same chip with chopped cores.
It costs AMD the same to make the Ryzen 3 as Ryzen 7 and have a healthy profit with both.

Imho AMD will keep prices as they are. They need mindshare, and sales on the back of healthy profits. Their "big money" focus is the server market, where a 5% market share there is billions worth of profit.
(FYI their EPYC costs <$350 and selling it for $2000!).

Intel chips are very expensive to make as they are huge, with the IGP included, and a defect can lead to scrapped chip given their complexity.
And that affects their HEDT market also.

 

[EsaT]

The pendulum will swing and hopefully it doesn't stop for an extended period again.

Best would be it swinging and stopping for couple years on AMD's side.
That would give AMD time to collect some buffer on their bank account, along with general increase of R&D.
I mean Vega pretty surely suffered from AMD lacking resources to develop both it and Ryzen simultaneously.

Indeed.

This is the current pendulum in the GPU segment.

That moss is growing too fast for it to reflect advance in graphics card.
Unless we're talking about prices.

 

[Panos]

I think it has more moss than that

You need RTX ON

 

[Trek9.9sl]

You need RTX ON

Haha!