AMD on the road to recovery.

[4K8KW10]

It goes to show that smart people are waiting for the new 4000 series processors.

Either this or simply people lost interest in the year-old CPU series and boring current CPU market situation.

 

[4K8KW10]

AMD is going to ‘Celeron’ Intel’s Xeon line later this year and there is nothing Intel can do about it.

That was then, this is now, and the tables have turned somewhat, AMD is the clear leader in most slices of the market that they play in. On the server side, AMD can offer 2x the performance that Intel can and do it at less cost. The only constraint on their growth is wafer supply, something that is rapidly easing. If AMD is constrained to the point where they can only supply a percentage of the market, other than raising prices, how can they price Intel out?

AMD is somewhat constrained on pricing too, if they raise ASPs too much, their TCO advantage goes away and the pressure comes off Intel. If they keep prices too low, Intel feels the pain but they do too. Other than sending Morris Chang at TSMC large bouquets of flowers and chocolates that spell out, “please give us more wafers”, what can AMD do? With Milan, AMD came up with something really clever that should put Intel in a very painful place when it comes to server pricing.

Note: The following is analysis for professional level subscribers only.

Article continues for subscribers only at:
https://semiaccurate.com/2020/08/25/amd-is-going-to-celeron-intels-xeon-margins/

 

[Shante]

Amd is doing great, good for them

 

[4K8KW10]

It's always nice to keep record on the progress achieved by AMD:

https://www.techradar.com/news/amd-...are-but-intel-isnt-going-down-without-a-fight
AMD Desktop Unit Market Share 3Q 2019 = 18%
AMD Mobile Unit Market Share 3Q 2019 = 14.7%
AMD Server Unit Market Share 3Q 2019 = 4.3%

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-vs-intel-highest-overall-x86-chip-market-share
AMD Desktop Unit Market Share 2Q 2020 = 19.2%
AMD Mobile Unit Market Share 2Q 2020 = 19.9%
AMD Server Unit Market Share 2Q 2020 = 5.8%

AMD's overall desktop market share is still relatively low, increasing very slowly.
In the mobile space, AMD's lineup gains much faster thanks to the best Zen 2 APUs.

 

[4K8KW10]

Okinawa Institute of Science and Technology Graduate University Deploys AMD EPYC™ Processors with Over 2 Petaflops of Computing Power Dedicated to Scientific Research
— AMD EPYC™ Processors provide superior cost-performance and high core density —

The EPYC processor-based supercomputer will deliver the 2.36 petaflops of computing power OIST plans to use for scientific research at the University.


https://videocardz.com/press-release/ios

 

[pc-guy]

https://www.tomshardware.com/news/amd-vs-intel-highest-overall-x86-chip-market-share
AMD Desktop Unit Market Share 2Q 2020 = 19.2%
AMD Mobile Unit Market Share 2Q 2020 = 19.9%
AMD Server Unit Market Share 2Q 2020 = 5.8%

AMD's overall desktop market share is still relatively low, increasing very slowly.
In the mobile space, AMD's lineup gains much faster thanks to the best Zen 2 APUs.

Are these market share based on operating units or quarterly sales?

 

[NinjaCool]

AMD keeps a clear lead at Mindfactory as Zen 3 looms on the horizon.

 

[humbug]

The Ryzen effect.

Intel shares plunge after Q3 data center sales fall 7%, missing estimates

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) shares slide 10.3% AH after the Q3 revenue beat, in-line profit, and raised full-year guidance were offset by the surprise decline in the Data Center Group.

Data-centric revenue was down 10% Y/Y overall with DCG down 7% Y/Y to $5.9B, below the $6.22B consensus.

Within DCG, cloud revenue was up 15%, while the Enterprise & Government market was down 47% after two quarters of 30%+ growth due to the pandemic-related economic strain.

PC-centric revenue was up 1% to $9.8B as the pandemic tailwind continues for the PC industry.

10nm update: Intel says its third 10nm facility (located in Arizona) is now fully operational, and the company expects to ship 30% higher production volumes this year than forecast in January.

For Q4, Intel forecasts $17.4B in revenue (consensus: $17.38B), 26.5% operating margin, and $1.10 EPS (consensus: $1.07). PC-centric revenue is expected to be down low single digits Y/Y, and Data-centric is guided down 25%.

For the year, Intel sees revenue of $75.3B vs. $75B prior guidance and the $75.16B consensus. EPS is raised from $4.85 to $4.90 compared to the $4.85 consensus. PC-centric and Data-centric sales are expected up mid-single digits Y/Y.
-------------------------

Intel gets post-earnings downgrade at BofA on PC, data center pressure

Seeing "no easy fix" for the manufacturing/competitive headwinds, BofA downgrades Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) from Neutral to Underperform and lowers the price objective from $60 to $45.

Analyst Vivek Arya says yesterday's earnings results showed three structural issues: "1) No plan/update to fix manufacturing challenges at next-gen 7nm, with continued low yields at current-gen 10nm process; 2) Mix pressure as demand moves to more competitive cloud/consumer markets away from INTC’s profitable enterprise PC/server markets (data center missed Q3 by 4%, down 8% YoY, plus 10nm Ice Lake server pushed out to Q1); 3) increasing competition from faster, nimbler fabless competitors such as NVDA, AMD, ARM-based suppliers and others that are able to take advantage of the foundry ecosystem."

Arya praises Intel's "portfolio breadth" and balance sheet but thinks the shaky roadmap execution could continue to threaten INTC's 80-85% value share of the PC/data center markets and pressure EPS growth.

BofA lowers its CY21/22 EPS estimates by 1-2% to $4.65 and $4.70, respectively.

The firm reiterates its Buy ratings on Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and AMD (NASDAQ:AMD), citing the expected continuing CPU and GPU share gains.

https://seekingalpha.com/news/36250...tm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3

https://seekingalpha.com/news/36252...tm_campaign=rta-stock-news&utm_content=link-3

 

[tommoT.Striker]

Ouch, how much lower do we think Intel stock will go?

 

[humbug]

Ouch, how much lower do we think Intel stock will go?

Dunno but its gone from $54 to $47 in the last few days, i suspect it will take another dive when AMD release their financials tomorrow.

 

[humbug]

Dunno but its gone from $54 to $47 in the last few days, i suspect it will take another dive when AMD release their financials tomorrow.

This is where Intel are vulnerable, all this money they are loosing in shares as investors cashout has to be paid out of Intel's coffers, its literally being drawn out of the bank of Intel, Intel's reserves will have already taken a hit and if this keeps going it could put them in a black hole. Like a run on the banks

 

[Troezar]

I reckon Intel will be a good bet if you can time the bottom. They're too big and have too many good engineers to stay down for long. Their management are their biggest handicap.

 

[humbug]

I reckon Intel will be a good bet if you can time the bottom. They're too big and have too many good engineers to stay down for long. Their management are their biggest handicap.

Nokia was bigger.

 

[kitfit1]

Nokia was bigger.

As indeed were Kodak back in the day.

 

[Troezar]

Nokia was bigger.

Nokia completely missed the boat with smartphones. I can't see that happening to Intel. They are still in good shape and you can bet they are working hard on a comeback. As far I can see it's win, win for consumers. Two big tech companies pushing each other to move the technology along.

 

[tommoT.Striker]

I reckon Intel will be a good bet if you can time the bottom. They're too big and have too many good engineers to stay down for long. Their management are their biggest handicap.

That's the temptation.

 

[smilingcrow]

This is where Intel are vulnerable, all this money they are loosing in shares as investors cashout has to be paid out of Intel's coffers, its literally being drawn out of the bank of Intel, Intel's reserves will have already taken a hit and if this keeps going it could put them in a black hole. Like a run on the banks

That's not how shares work at all. People sell to other investors and the company isn't liable for anything.

 

[Nutella33]

https://www.techpowerup.com/273851/amd-reports-third-quarter-2020-financial-results

Q3 2020 Results

• Revenue was $2.80 billion, up 56 percent year-over-year and 45 percent quarter-over-quarter driven by higher revenue in both the Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom and Computing and Graphics segments.
• Gross margin was 44 percent, up 1 percentage point year-over-year and flat quarter-over-quarter. The year-over-year increase was primarily driven by EPYC and Ryzen processor sales. Gross margin was flat quarter-over-quarter as an increase of Ryzen and EPYC processor sales was offset by a higher percentage of semi-custom revenue.
• Operating income was $449 million compared to $186 million a year ago and $173 million in the prior quarter. Non-GAAP operating income was $525 million compared to $240 million a year ago and $233 million in the prior quarter. Operating income improvements were primarily driven by revenue growth, including an increase in Ryzen and EPYC processor sales and semi-custom product sales.
• Net income was $390 million compared to $120 million a year ago and $157 million in the prior quarter. Non-GAAP net income was $501 million compared to $219 million a year ago and $216 million in the prior quarter.
• Diluted earnings per share was $0.32 compared to $0.11 a year ago and $0.13 in the prior quarter. Non-GAAP diluted earnings per share was $0.41 compared to $0.18 a year ago and $0.18 in the prior quarter.
• Cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments were $1.77 billion at the end of the quarter.

Not shoddy.

Xillinx bought for 35bn on a share deal as well, no cash.

Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment revenue was $1.13 billion, up 116 percent year-over-year and 101 percent quarter-over-quarter. Revenue was higher year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter due to higher semi-custom product sales and increased EPYC processor sales.

And this is a startling contrast to Intel's Quarter which was blamed on Covid.

 

[pc-guy]

This is where Intel are vulnerable, all this money they are loosing in shares as investors cashout has to be paid out of Intel's coffers, its literally being drawn out of the bank of Intel, Intel's reserves will have already taken a hit and if this keeps going it could put them in a black hole. Like a run on the banks

not sure intel has initiated a share buy back scheme. depressed stock valuation will reflect the company's overall valuation. this means intel will be subject to more onerous borrowing terms especially if they got existing debt needing to be refianced. openning fabrication centres can't be cheap so it is a huge investment. so their lenders will be laughing as they are able to charge higher rate as well as demanding more collateral.

but those earning figures are still extremely healthy. the business is still very profitable. there is just no growth or very little of it. from an investor perspective, you earning come from 2 things from a share - growth of share and yield of the share. growth is just that the business's revenue and profit expand; yeild is dividend to share price ratio. no growth from intel means, its share prices will remain static (after initial fire sale) but it bodes well for dividend as it will yield higher if dividend has been announced already or penned in.

Intel is in a vastly different situation to Nokia and AMD. Nokia was loosing a lot of money before it went under. similarly for AMD, until Lisa came around and pulled a rabbit out of the hat with the zen and aggresive pricing. if that gamble didnt pay off then we might be staring at intel as the sole player in x86 market.

I was working for a telecom company called Nortel, it was the third largest in the world. it went under after the dot.com boom and bust also. it also had huge amount of debts and a very unprofitable business due to a period of rapid expansion and waning demand for products. in many ways, Nortel was similar to what intel is now. a lot of brilliant engineers and they got research projects in everything and wanted to be leaders of everything. wanted to find the next generational product or tech, then lost sight on the product that is core to the business and let the competitors catch them and leap frogged them as well as couldnt keep up with the pace of chage. if intel dont consolidate their product line in the next 3 years then they may well be starring down the barrel of those failed giants. but they arent there yet and cant be complacent either.

 

[humbug]

Read and understood thank you ^^^

https://www.techpowerup.com/273851/amd-reports-third-quarter-2020-financial-results



Not shoddy.

Xillinx bought for 35bn on a share deal as well, no cash.



And this is a startling contrast to Intel's Quarter which was blamed on Covid.

Enterprise, Embedded and Semi-Custom segment revenue was $1.13 billion, up 116 percent year-over-year and 101 percent quarter-over-quarter. Revenue was higher year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter due to higher semi-custom product sales and increased EPYC processor sales.

Yeah, that ^^^^ is #### all to do with Covid, what? Intel Data Centre revenue shrinks 10% at the same time as AMD's grows more than 100% and its Covid? pull the other one Intel.....