Going from past AMD GPUs at launch the lower end jobbie is between 50% to 60% of the one above it(last two node shrinks). Even at half Polaris 10 size,it should have no issue hitting GTX950 level performance and that is being conservative. Even an R9 270X does that,and that is just over 200MM2 on 28NM with a 256 bit memory controller. Shrinking down AMD Pitcairn on 14NM,would yield a 100MM2 GPU and Pitcairn has much higher performance per watt than Tonga which regressed. Me choosing Tonga was done on purpose as it is the worst case scenario in terms of performance/mm2 and performance/watt.
Using AMD Pitcairn as a baseline would make Polaris 11 look massively better in all metrics.
GTX950 level performance is a very conservative estimate.
Now,look at the other end of the spectrum - AMD Pitcairn which already has GTX950 level performance.
60% less power consumption,would mean an R7 270X would be consuming under 60W:
http://tpucdn.com/reviews/ASUS/GTX_950/images/power_average.png
Look at that chart - it is the bus powered GTX950,Nvidia recently produced which consumes 75W,ie,the PCI-E slot limit.
Are people really believing,that Polaris 11,with a new uarch,and a 14NM LPP process can barely get 20% better performance/watt than a GTX950??
Because that is what a bus powered GTX960/R9 380 level Polaris 11 would be doing as a GTX960 is 20% faster than a GTX950 and I have a GTX960 myself.
If that is all what AMD can do with a new uarch and process node,I would be worried what happens when Nvidia launches the GP106 and lower end chips in the Pascal range.