Ok trying to make some sense of it all.
The way I see it these are the important numbers.
770 294mm 230w Kepler
980 398mm 165w Maxwell
780ti 561mm 250w Kepler
titanX 601mm 250w Maxwell
280/x 352mm 250w Tahiti
285 359mm 190w Tonga
290x 438mm 290w Hawaii
390x ???mm ???w ?????
Now the 780ti was NVidia last large die, this is the chip that is being superseded by the Titan X. As we can see they have increased the die size by 40mm and the TDP has stayed the same, performance is about 35-45% depending on what your looking at.
The 980 is a much better chip than its predecessor the 770, yes the die size went up by 104mm but the performance was nearly double in some cases, all the time with a much lower TDP.
The there is AMD.
The 280 and 280x have the same TDP listed which I'm not so sure about but hey ho. The 285 is only 7mm bigger but has a good drop in TDP, performance wise in reality it isn't any faster.
The 290x has good room to manoeuvre in the die size area with only 438mm but nowhere to go in the TDP area.
Tonga shows us that AMD have been able to improve the TDP of the 285 while maintaining the same performance of the 280/x, we mustn't forget the smaller bus size there either. Can they utilise the Tonga improvements to keep the TDP of the 390 manageable while giving us an sizable improvement, they will need to as the 290X is 5-10% slower than the 780ti.
So the 390 could need to be 45-50% faster than the 290x to get anywhere near the Titan X and we have seen that NVidia finest could only squeeze 35-45% more out of the Titan X over the 780ti and that is without having to overly worry about the TDP and removing the DP compute functionality.
Of course AMD has the HBM card to play which might make loads of difference, it might not make much at all. To begin with the new memory technologies look great on paper, with massive theoretical performance, but sometimes the initial product isn't really any better than the outgoing best of the previous tech.
As always we will have to wait and see.
Disclaimer:
it is all my own opinion and figures are taken from the wiki's so accuracy is not guaranteed.