This is certainly valid and I agree 100%... I'm getting a sense VEGA is further off than some people think, and by the time it's released, it's all but certain to be up against the 1080Ti. I doubt Volta will see the light of day by then, but its release will be much closer, therefore it will have consumers and enthusiasts looking to that horizon.
There's always something in the horizon. Hell, just a couple of pages ago someone was asking 'should I wait for the 1080ti and/or Vega or should I just get a 1080 now'?
It'll be no different in May. Volta will be 6 months away at best?
But you're forgetting Navi. That will be what, 12 months away? Navi is supposed to hit the shelves in 2018 and I'll be damned if that "High Bandwidth Cache Controller" doesn't have anything to do with some sort of 'transparent multi-GPU' where you get 2 VEGA chips on the same PCB acting as a single card with a unified memory model.
PLUS you are forgetting that GloFo is supposed to deliver IBM's 7nm process in 2H 2018 and so we will inevitably have a Vega 20 using that process soon afterward (simple die shrink). (EDIT: this is big because for the first time AMD will have exclusive access to the top manufacturing process over both TSMC and Intel; I don't think this has ever happened before).
So yeah, people may be disappointed and all that, but I found the whole thing to be quite interesting. AMD have a lot of factors falling into place and they may surprise us.
My guess is:
- Vega hits and it's somewhere around 1080-TitanXP performance
- 1080ti is released
(MENTAL NOTE TO MYSELF: at this point prices should be favourable for me to upgrade)
- Volta arrives (hopefully) in 1H 2018 and (hopefully) gives a similar boost as in the case of Maxwell --> Maxwell v2
- AMD releases Navi which is basically a couple of Vegas on a PCB acting like a single GPU using some voodoo magic and the high-bandwidth cache. This should be really close to Volta as AMD probably have all the groundwork already present in Vega.
(MENTAL NOTE TO MYSELF: at this point prices should be favourable for me to upgrade)
- GloFo delivers 7nm in 2H 2018 (hopefully)
- AMD releases Vega 20 at 7nm which gives Navi performance with a single chip and better consumption in 1H/2H 2019? (depending on what nvidia does)
- AMD releases Navi cards using multiple Vega 20s on the same PCB
To be honest, even though AMD is beaten down right now, I see a clear roadmap ahead of them. I am more worried about Nvidia. We know very little about Volta and what they're up to, let alone about what they'll do come 2019 onward...