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AMD Zen 6 rumours

Nutty667 said:
Maybe it will, but they're aiming for end of this decade and they seem to be on schedule atm.
Nvidia Blackwell chips are already being produced there. Though they are currently shipped back to Taiwan for final assembly, I suspect in a year or 2 it will be fully US side production.
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It’s two decades for TSMC-US and Intel to ramp production. Between now then the strategy is Intel 18a. As I said, Taiwan is 90% of the market and China will be ready by the end of this year.
 
jigger said:
It’s two decades for TSMC-US and Intel to ramp production. Between now then the strategy is Intel 18a. As I said, Taiwan is 90% of the market and China will be ready by the end of this year.
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Not sure where Intel fit in, but full N2 production is only 3 years away at AZ plant.
 
Nutty667 said:
Not sure where Intel fit in, but full N2 production is only 3 years away at AZ plant.
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Intel 18a production should ramp up to around 60,000 wafers a month within 2-3 years - by comparison that 90% figure Jigger is talking about is actually the ~120,000 wafers a month of advanced node wafers produced in Taiwan (estimated to exceed 200,000 by the end of 2026). The US TSMC capacity will eventually expand to ~180,000 a month but I'm not sure the time frame.

Globally something like 6.8 million 300mm wafers are produced a month on all nodes.
 
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Nutty667 said:
Not sure where Intel fit in, but full N2 production is only 3 years away at AZ plant.
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Intel’s manufacturing is to cover US demand, well the demand of a select group of Trumps friends along with its military. As I said, China will have 90% of semiconductor capacity and it will take 2 decades for US manufacturing to replace that.
 
Rroff said:
Intel 18a production should ramp up to around 60,000 wafers a month within 2-3 years - by comparison that 90% figure Jigger is talking about is actually the ~120,000 wafers a month of advanced node wafers produced in Taiwan (estimated to exceed 200,000 by the end of 2026). The US TSMC capacity will eventually expand to ~180,000 a month but I'm not sure the time frame.

Globally something like 6.8 million 300mm wafers are produced a month on all nodes.
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Sure, Intel just need a few decades and a couple trillion in aid.

It’s pretty funny how people still have faith in Intel manufacturing cadence and ability to spin a cutting edge node.
 
jigger said:
Intel’s manufacturing is to cover US demand, well the demand of a select group of Trumps friends along with its military. As I said, China will have 90% of semiconductor capacity and it will take 2 decades for US manufacturing to replace that.
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China will never have 90% of semiconductor capacity - in general terms and excluding less advanced nodes, they and the US produce about the same amount of advanced semiconductors though China is more limited with a crude 7nm and SMIC's attempts at 5nm, Korea comes close to if not out producing both combined and Taiwan is in another league. Taking Taiwan will simply reshape those numbers with Taiwan no longer in the equation and won't be added to China's numbers.

In terms of all types of node on 300mm semiconductor wafers then China has something like 20% market share.

EDIT: Actually it'll be worse than that if China did take Taiwan - their production almost certainly relies on Western imports which would be instantly cut off if they did invade Taiwan, their semiconductor industry would probably die on its feet - at the expense of quoting from AI:

"China's semiconductor industry remains heavily reliant on Western technology, specifically for high-end chips and advanced manufacturing equipment, despite massive state-led efforts to achieve self-sufficiency. While China is a dominant force in mature-node chip production (28nm and above), it relies on the US, Netherlands, and Japan for more than 90% of its critical chip making equipment and tools, with import dependencies for semiconductors overall exceeding 80% in 2020 and continuing to be significant into 2024–2025."
 
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Rroff said:
China will never have 90% of semiconductor capacity - in general terms and excluding less advanced nodes, they and the US produce about the same amount of advanced semiconductors though China is more limited with a crude 7nm and SMIC's attempts at 5nm, Korea comes close to if not out producing both combined and Taiwan is in another league. Taking Taiwan will simply reshape those numbers with Taiwan no longer in the equation and won't be added to China's numbers.

In terms of all types of node on 300mm semiconductor wafers then China has something like 20% market share.

EDIT: Actually it'll be worse than that if China did take Taiwan - their production almost certainly relies on Western imports which would be instantly cut off if they did invade Taiwan, their semiconductor industry would probably die on its feet - at the expense of quoting from AI:

"China's semiconductor industry remains heavily reliant on Western technology, specifically for high-end chips and advanced manufacturing equipment, despite massive state-led efforts to achieve self-sufficiency. While China is a dominant force in mature-node chip production (28nm and above), it relies on the US, Netherlands, and Japan for more than 90% of its critical chip making equipment and tools, with import dependencies for semiconductors overall exceeding 80% in 2020 and continuing to be significant into 2024–2025."
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Listen once more. Taiwan is 90% of the advanced semiconductor market and China is readying to invade Taiwan. That 90% of the world’s capacity is directly under Chinese control. The world will be left fighting over the remaking 10% and 90% of that will taken by the world military’s.
 
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jigger said:
Listen once more. Taiwan is 90% of the advanced semiconductor market and China is readying to invade Taiwan. That 90% of the world’s capacity is directly under Chinese control. The world will be left fighting over the remaking 10% and 90% of that will taken by the world military’s.
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Repeating misunderstood and incorrect information doesn't make it any less incorrect. That 90% figure is for the very latest most advanced nodes (sub 5nm) which makes up a small percentage of overall advanced semiconductor production. And as I pointed out China can not gain from this situation - the only control China exerts in this instance is to destroy it - it will not have 90% of [functional] global manufacturing post an invasion of Taiwan. EDIT: Technically China can't even produce the most advanced semiconductors anyway - SMIC has limited 5nm capabilities and then there is a crude 7nm node.
 
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Serious case of Dunning Kruger effect going on in here. Thought I was in GD for a minute but apparently this is a zen 6 thread.
 
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Noxia said:
Serious case of Dunning Kruger effect going on in here. Thought I was in GD for a minute but apparently this is a zen 6 thread.
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A bit off topic though it does potentially affect Zen 6, but it blows my mind, and it isn't an uncommon opinion, that people who have some idea about semiconductor manufacturing think China can waltz in and put TSMC's facilities to use - it is well known that TSMC and China's semiconductor industry rely heavily on imported products, materials, and Western supply and design chains, etc. to function - depending on product TSMC relies on imports for 60-80% of materials i.e. specialised chemicals and expertise, etc. and a lot of their production hardware and software will simply cease to function if cut off from the West either due to remote dependencies or intentional kill switches.
 
Rroff said:
A bit off topic though it does potentially affect Zen 6, but it blows my mind, and it isn't an uncommon opinion, that people who have some idea about semiconductor manufacturing think China can waltz in and put TSMC's facilities to use - it is well known that TSMC and China's semiconductor industry rely heavily on imported products, materials, and Western supply and design chains, etc. to function - depending on product TSMC relies on imports for 60-80% of materials i.e. specialised chemicals and expertise, etc. and a lot of their production hardware and software will simply cease to function if cut off from the West either due to remote dependencies or intentional kill switches.
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I saw a short clip a while back about how CPU's or part of were made and I'm sure it was mainly all done from a place in Europe, I need to dig it out, probably got my wires crossed.
edit: yeah it was microchips and talking about lithography. ASML are a big producer

PS: You actually evidence your posts where needed/applicable, wasn't having a dig at you of all people.
 
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Rroff said:
China will never have 90% of semiconductor capacity - in general terms and excluding less advanced nodes, they and the US produce about the same amount of advanced semiconductors though China is more limited with a crude 7nm and SMIC's attempts at 5nm, Korea comes close to if not out producing both combined and Taiwan is in another league. Taking Taiwan will simply reshape those numbers with Taiwan no longer in the equation and won't be added to China's numbers.

In terms of all types of node on 300mm semiconductor wafers then China has something like 20% market share.

EDIT: Actually it'll be worse than that if China did take Taiwan - their production almost certainly relies on Western imports which would be instantly cut off if they did invade Taiwan, their semiconductor industry would probably die on its feet - at the expense of quoting from AI:

"China's semiconductor industry remains heavily reliant on Western technology, specifically for high-end chips and advanced manufacturing equipment, despite massive state-led efforts to achieve self-sufficiency. While China is a dominant force in mature-node chip production (28nm and above), it relies on the US, Netherlands, and Japan for more than 90% of its critical chip making equipment and tools, with import dependencies for semiconductors overall exceeding 80% in 2020 and continuing to be significant into 2024–2025."
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With the way trump has been carrying on, and the re-evaluation of relations with China by Canada and Europe, I don't think you can rule out western imports being completely stopped. I don't think it would be a situation either Canada, or Europe would be happy with, but if they're forced to take sides do you trust the guy that's been ******* you over for quite a while now and will probably continue to do so or China?

How would a strong economic alliance between Europe and China effect our relationship with Russia? Would it give us more stability that we currently have with the states as our ally?
 
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ASML are 1 of, or maybe the only supplier of extreme UV (actually X-ray) lithography machines. TSMC use AMSL's EUV and DeepUV machines.

This Veritasium video is worth a watch if you're interested in how complex the machine is. It is mind bending what is does, even just generating the X-rays!
 
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Nutty667 said:
ASML are 1 of, or maybe the only supplier of extreme UV (actually X-ray) lithography machines. TSMC use AMSL's EUV and DeepUV machines.

This Veritasium video is worth a watch if you're interested in how complex the machine is. It is mind bending what is does, even just generating the X-rays!
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Thanks, I was fascinated by the short I watched and been meaning to look. I'll have that on now as I sleeve a load of cards :) It's amazing to see it zoomed in and the scale they are working at. I'll pretend to be an expert on the subject after watching
 
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