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AMD Zen 6 rumours

I thought it was just Ram and NVME pricing on the up and availability, seems CPU`s will follow that trend also.

www.reuters.com

Exclusive: Intel, AMD notify customers in China of lengthy waits for CPUs

Intel and AMD have notified Chinese customers of supply shortages for server central processing units, with Intel warning of delivery lead times of up to six months, people with knowledge of the delays said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
 
I can't see myself interested in a Zen 6 day f it comes to AM5. At my resolutions (1440p UW 175Hz/4K 120Hz) and in the games I play I'm almost always GPU limited.

If I had a stronger GPU then maybe, but at this rate it'll be quite some time before I next upgrade.
 
hyperfighting said:
I thought it was just Ram and NVME pricing on the up and availability, seems CPU`s will follow that trend also.

www.reuters.com

Exclusive: Intel, AMD notify customers in China of lengthy waits for CPUs

Intel and AMD have notified Chinese customers of supply shortages for server central processing units, with Intel warning of delivery lead times of up to six months, people with knowledge of the delays said.
www.reuters.com www.reuters.com
Click to expand...
Easy fix for Intel, just cut production of the crappy Arrow Lake chips that nobody is buying and switch the spare capacity to Xeon. :p
 
Would be cool to see a big uplift but I play at 4k so not expecting much regardless. Hopefully something more significant than whatever the point of those two new latest x3d chips was.
 
Yeah they seemed a bit pointless. Even though I'm on a 7700 I'm still massively GPU bottlenecked on most games, and I don't fancy shelling out 6/7 hundred for a new GPU atm.
I will still pick up a Zen6 to tide me over for a long while though, if there's a low power one with significant uplift from my 7700.
 
Nutty667 said:
Yeah they seemed a bit pointless. Even though I'm on a 7700 I'm still massively GPU bottlenecked on most games, and I don't fancy shelling out 6/7 hundred for a new GPU atm.
I will still pick up a Zen6 to tide me over for a long while though, if there's a low power one with significant uplift from my 7700.
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It’s questionable if Zen6 will ever make it’s way out of Taiwan, and if Zen6 is released, you could find yourself with the rest of us at the back of a queue behind 1.4 billion Chinese buyers.

You might be using your 7700X and current GPU for some time.
 
jigger said:
It’s questionable if Zen6 will ever make it’s way out of Taiwan, and if Zen6 is released, you could find yourself with the rest of us at the back of a queue behind 1.4 billion Chinese buyers.

You might be using your 7700X and current GPU for some time.
Click to expand...
Not sure I follow.
Why will Zen6 be impossible to buy when current cpu's have no trouble ?
 
Not sure that will happen before Zen6 launch - but we are entering an interesting part of the timeline when it comes to potential Chinese action against Taiwan, they are now around 2/3rds of the way along progress on the development of airbases required to support the kinda of sortie rate major action against Taiwan would entail - though it isn't the only way they could go about it, but lately for some reason a lot of the resources have been redirected towards the region bordering India.
 
Nutty667 said:
Hopefully if they leave it a few more years, the Arizona TMSC plant will be up to speed on N2 process production.
Click to expand...

Well it’s going to take a lot longer than a few years, but that seems to be the plan the problem is it’s a terrible plan that hinges on everyone moving to Intel. China will be ready to invade Taiwan by end of this year and if people think the current DRAM issues are bad it will pale into insignificance compared to what happens when the CCP controls semiconductor manufacturing.
 
jigger said:
compared to what happens when the CCP controls semiconductor manufacturing.
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They won't be in control - it'll be a wrecking ball to semiconductor manufacturing - taking the islands by force won't give China any control over or advantages in the field of semiconductor manufacturing. It'll have a huge impact on the West, and most of the world, until we've spun up a replacement for Taiwan's production though.

Only exception if maybe if they somehow managed to use soft power to take Taiwan and assume executive control before anyone really realised what was happening but then I'd imagine most Western countries would pull their interests out and semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan would stall.
 
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Rroff said:
They won't be in control - it'll be a wrecking ball to semiconductor manufacturing - taking the islands by force won't give China any control over or advantages in the field of semiconductor manufacturing. It'll have a huge impact on the West, and most of the world, until we've spun up a replacement industry though.

Only exception if maybe if they somehow managed to use soft power to take Taiwan and assume executive control before anyone really realised what was happening but then I'd imagine most Western countries would pull their interests out and semiconductor manufacturing in Taiwan would stall.
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Taiwan will resist for as long as it can, but without the support of the US Taiwan will only resist for so long. It’s likely China’s plan now seems to be based around setting up a series of Mulberry harbours for amphibious invasion. If those brigades are established the war is pretty much over and China controls TSMC, all of TSMC personnel and expertise along with all the future chip designs of TSMCs customers and has a GDP of 22 trillion an economy free of trading in dollars. A very solid strategy and a very nice reward for effort.

We’ve entered a time of three expansionist superpowers all seemingly working in unison, but also for their own interests and against each other. Post Trump and the attempted Russian invasion of Europe, China have been encouraged to accelerate their efforts to take Taiwan.

I’m certainly not waiting for the next best thing and I’ve decided that I’ll shut up shop before I buy Hygon Zen 6 chips and I’ll never relocate to the US to enable me to continue.
 
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jigger said:
If those brigades are established the war is pretty much over and China controls TSMC, all of TSMC personnel and expertise along with all the future chip designs of TSMCs customers and has a GDP of 22 trillion an economy free of trading in dollars. A very solid strategy and a very nice reward for effort.
Click to expand...

There is close to zero chance of China putting TSMC into useful production inside of many, probably 10, years even if they somehow captured the facilities intact and most of the personnel.

They've already gathered a lot of information on the tech and designs and pretty much anything else they'd be able to gather from seizing the facilities via espionage and are still barely managing a crude 7nm production domestically.

Almost certainly there is a plan in place to sabotage the facilities and evacuate key staff if it looks like things are kicking off, some are likely already relocated. To operate TSMC and produce advanced semiconductors relies on an international tool, parts, materials and design chain as well as expertise and support that can't just be replicated - it would take almost as much work as China building and developing the capability from scratch to put those facilities into useful production - this isn't like a factory producing toys or something.

For example https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion
 
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Rroff said:
There is close to zero chance of China putting TSMC into useful production inside of many, probably 10, years even if they somehow captured the facilities intact and most of the personnel.

They've already gathered a lot of information on the tech and designs and pretty much anything else they'd be able to gather from seizing the facilities via espionage and are still barely managing a crude 7nm production domestically.

Almost certainly there is a plan in place to sabotage the facilities and evacuate key staff if it looks like things are kicking off, some are likely already relocated. To operate TSMC and produce advanced semiconductors relies on an international tool, parts, materials and design chain as well as expertise and support that can't just be replicated - it would take almost as much work as China building and developing the capability from scratch to put those facilities into useful production - this isn't like a factory producing toys or something.

For example https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-i...a-remote-self-destruct-in-case-of-an-invasion
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No, there is every chance China could take control of TSMC within a few days and have TSMC back operating in well less than a decade, but your point is irrelevant to the availability of Zen 6 and the effects on the semiconductor industry. It’s also irrelevant to the point I made. Taiwan makes up 90% of the semiconductor market. Nine, Zero Percent… 90% of the most advanced silicon manufacturing, gone over a weekend. That a total collapse of some of world largest companies and global scramble between the rest of worlds militaries for the remaining 10%

Taiwan currently has a £40 billion military procurement issue that should have been finalised 2 years ago and is only now being seriously debated in Taiwan’s parliament. That debate is at stage of about 100 member beating eachother over the heads with shoes. I’m not joking, while the threat of dictatorship looms, Taiwanese MPs are literally attacking each other with shoes. This procurement is considered critical to the defence of invasion and must be resolved by the end of the year, which it won’t be.

It’s seeming likely the current US administration is hesitant to directly appose a Chinese military force over Taiwan. I think after some deliberation the US will eventually reconsider, but that leaves Japan, Australia, the UK and probably the Philippines along with Taiwan to hold off the initial attack which given each nations capabilities is unlikely to succeed.
 
No one in this thread has the slightest idea whether or not a conflict between China and Taiwan will take place. Nor when it might happen if it does, or the ramifications of such an event.

Don't make buying decisions based on anything anyone says on the subject in these forums for goodness sake.
 
jigger said:
Well it’s going to take a lot longer than a few years, but that seems to be the plan the problem is it’s a terrible plan that hinges on everyone moving to Intel. China will be ready to invade Taiwan by end of this year and if people think the current DRAM issues are bad it will pale into insignificance compared to what happens when the CCP controls semiconductor manufacturing.
Click to expand...
Maybe it will, but they're aiming for end of this decade and they seem to be on schedule atm.
Nvidia Blackwell chips are already being produced there. Though they are currently shipped back to Taiwan for final assembly, I suspect in a year or 2 it will be fully US side production.
 
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jigger said:
No, there is every chance China could take control of TSMC within a few days and have TSMC back operating in well less than a decade, but your point is irrelevant to the availability of Zen 6 and the effects on the semiconductor industry. It’s also irrelevant to the point I made. Taiwan makes up 90% of the semiconductor market. Nine, Zero Percent… 90% of the most advanced silicon manufacturing, gone over a weekend. That a total collapse of some of world largest companies and global scramble between the rest of worlds militaries for the remaining 10%
Click to expand...

China isn't taking any kind of useful control of TSMC - as before this isn't like a toy factory where you can just clear the lines and start producing stuff. Even if they somehow captured the facilities intact, which is unlikely, it would take years to replace and replicate the tool, design, material, etc. chains and gain the experience required to put the facilities into useful production. Contrary to what people often think China gains nothing productive in this respect from taking Taiwan and probably expends far more resources than it would take to build those capabilities from scratch before they've got anything productive.

90% of the most advanced chips - but they only make up a relatively small percentage of the overall supply - TSMC produces around 60-70% of the overall supply of semiconductors - which would be pretty wrecking to lose and will cause great pain for consumers but it can be adjusted for. Obviously Zen 6 would be obliterated and consumer devices would probably have to be worked back to 14-22nm (with limited supply and high cost) with only stuff like military having access to 7nm and below for some years.

Marak said:
No one in this thread has the slightest idea whether or not a conflict between China and Taiwan will take place. Nor when it might happen if it does, or the ramifications of such an event.

Don't make buying decisions based on anything anyone says on the subject in these forums for goodness sake.
Click to expand...

I couldn't say if it will happen but China is in the advanced stages of having its military ready to attempt such and it is quite likely to have the military capabilities in place by 2027 - there is nothing stopping them trying earlier but at a much higher cost and lesser chance of success without all the pieces in place. On the flip side some of the preparations have enormous ongoing cost so it tends to make it more likely it would happen in that window, if they are intent on doing it.

This is just one of multiple airbases they've upgraded:


They've added a massive SAM system, hardened shelters, huge underground storage complex and massively expanded the number of aircraft the base can operate and turn around - the scale of it leans more towards it being used than not ultimately.
 
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