Are we starting to see the wage increase vs inflation increase death spiral?

Congrats on not reading my OP. I specifally said this isnt a thread about who deserves pay increases and what percantage, this is about the theory that with high inflation comes higher and more frequent wage demands which can trigger even higher inflation.
In this chicken and egg, inflation came first.
Was trying to say that Death Spiral is already here and it was not caused by wage demands. Despite feeble attempts of shifting the blame.
 
If significant portions of the population were getting real-terms pay increases, there might be some possibility of that causing some knock-on price inflation. But nobody is.

Nobody? And it can't start now, can it not? You do realise that something has to start in order to have started? The inflation can trigger a wage increase, which will put people back to the status quo meaning they spend, so prices increase as they still have money to spend. Until costs go up wages can't react, that is how this works, its not voodoo magic, no one is going to get (larger than normal) wage increases if prices stay the same, which they never do.
 
We don’t have a lack of money though, we have a lack of balance. Too much is going to the top rather than the bottom.

Should cap CEO pay for a start, link it to the average salary in the business. If the CEO wants to earn more then they should work to bring everyone else up with them.

They seem to get huge pay increases even when things are going to the dogs, like the Birmingham airport CEO who just received a 49% pay increase.

 
Should cap CEO pay for a start, link it to the average salary in the business. If the CEO wants to earn more then they should work to bring everyone else up with them.

They seem to get huge pay increases even when things are going to the dogs, like the Birmingham airport CEO who just received a 49% pay increase.


There was a study a few years back which showed that when a company is in the crapper CEOs received increased pay under the justicification that they were steering it through difficult times. When the company is excelling they receive increased pay due to great performance.
No matter what they received pay increases at a percentage way above general staff.
This is despite the fact that the study showed their ability had little impact and how the company performs is mostly driven by market conditions.
 
I've had 2 pay rises this year, the first was in April, which still resulted in a net pay cut, the 2nd is coming in July and because inflation is still rising will still result in a pay cut in real terms.

Used to spend about £25-30 a week on shopping, now its closer to £45-50.
Used to spend ~£10-15 a week on food at work, now its £5 a day at least.
 
Should cap CEO pay for a start, link it to the average salary in the business. If the CEO wants to earn more then they should work to bring everyone else up with them.

They seem to get huge pay increases even when things are going to the dogs, like the Birmingham airport CEO who just received a 49% pay increase.

Because £300,000 just isn’t enough! This contempt for the average person has to stop. I don’t care how high your IQ is or how many qualifications you have, you can’t exist without the people beneath and around you period. Nothing wrong with being paid more but £600,000 is just taking the ****.
 
The "wage spiral" is largely a myth. Yes, some proportion of wage increases goes into prices which goes into inflation which goes into wage increases next year; but the transfer is a small proportion of the increase. A 10% increase in wages for supermarket workers doesn't mean the prices go up by 10% on anywhere near. Moreover, provided wages outpace inflation, a bit of inflation is a good thing in an economy as indebted as the UK.

The much bigger problem for the economy is that pay cuts (and, yes, sub-inflationary pay rises are functionally pay cuts) are going to lead to recession and falls in living standards. This is particularly bad on the back of the 12 years of dire wage growth that successive Tory-led governments have created.
 
Nobody? And it can't start now, can it not? You do realise that something has to start in order to have started? The inflation can trigger a wage increase, which will put people back to the status quo meaning they spend, so prices increase as they still have money to spend. Until costs go up wages can't react, that is how this works, its not voodoo magic, no one is going to get (larger than normal) wage increases if prices stay the same, which they never do.
In order for wage increases to mean more spending, those wage increases need to be real terms pay increases.....beating inflation.

Do you think people are getting inflation busting payrises?

The issue is being compounded by a decade of economic mismanagement by the Conservatives, which means huge swathes of the population that have put up with real terms pay cuts for years have nowhere to go except industrial action.
 
In this chicken and egg, inflation came first.
Was trying to say that Death Spiral is already here and it was not caused by wage demands. Despite feeble attempts of shifting the blame.

See here No-one is trying to shift the blame of inflation to wage demands, it does appear IMO we are slowly entering the 2nd step of the cycle though
 
Not necessarily. Inflation can be caused by demand (demand led inflation) or by increasing costs (cost push inflation). What you are referring to is the lack of demand pull inflation. But what we are seeing is cost push inflation. I would argue it's a bigger risk because normal inflationary measures such as increasing interest rates have less of a controlling affect. Increasing rates won't stop inflation that's led by cost rises. People will simply get into more and more debt until we risk large numbers of people going bankrupt. It's going to be a tough few years I think. Time to batten down the hatches and avoid spending money on toys. This may well lead to stagflation.

And sucks to have a small business which is based purely around discretionary spend.
 
In order for wage increases to mean more spending, those wage increases need to be real terms pay increases.....beating inflation.

Do you think people are getting inflation busting payrises?

I asked you the question, can people not start getting those pay rises due to inflation? You didn't answer.

So rather than go round in circles, you don't think what the OP is saying is possible at all, but I believe that it is possible and may happen. We agree to differ, end of discussion. :)
 
Which is?
well, 2nd loop of the spiral, reacting to wage increase

which is BS

because if there is no wage increase, workers are effectively paying for the whole s**tshow
and there is no indication that this could stop the spiral, because again, inflation wasn't caused by wage increases in the first place
 
Last edited:
If you recieved 0% for the last few years you've been taking a real terms pay cut for a long time. Many others have too, no wonder productivity is low in this country.
I was on 0% for 3 years and i think over those years inflation totalled 4.3%, i then got 4% this year which means im down .3% over the last 4 years plus 9.1% this year.

However, fortunately my living standards haven't degraded yet, i've been able to clear some long term debt earlier this year so my disposable or "buffer" income has gone up slightly but that will be eaten away once my fixed energy contract end in October and the CPI price increase on some utilities since April has already eaten into some of the funds too.
 
I asked you the question, can people not start getting those pay rises due to inflation? You didn't answer.

So rather than go round in circles, you don't think what the OP is saying is possible at all, but I believe that it is possible and may happen. We agree to differ, end of discussion. :)
Well, you could actually look at what is happening in the real world.

Are people getting inflation-busting payrises? Do people have more spending power?

To me, reality looks like the biggest contraction in consumer spending power in my adult life. I don't see where this hypothetical death spiral comes from.
 
Back
Top Bottom