Australian bushfires

[Angilion]

Yeah, im 99% certain that that NASA composite image is fake. [..]

It's not fake per se. It's being misrepresented. It's a composite timelapse of heat being misrepresented as a composite timelapse of fire. There are many other sources of heat and the map is being shown without scaling so there's no indication of temperature. NASA's kit is quite sensitive even at that range, so it can detect differences in heat caused by something as minor as a slightly shiny roof on a large building reflecting more sunlight than the ground around it. The map is useful for what it is, but unfortunately it's also useful for disseminating disinformation.

 

[Orionaut]

It's not fake per se. It's being misrepresented. It's a composite timelapse of heat being misrepresented as a composite timelapse of fire. There are many other sources of heat and the map is being shown without scaling so there's no indication of temperature. NASA's kit is quite sensitive even at that range, so it can detect differences in heat caused by something as minor as a slightly shiny roof on a large building reflecting more sunlight than the ground around it. The map is useful for what it is, but unfortunately it's also useful for disseminating disinformation.

So not only fires, It also shows where the towns/cities are and even, possibly, who is just having a big barbie!

 

[Unluckyalf]

It's not fake per se. It's being misrepresented. It's a composite timelapse of heat being misrepresented as a composite timelapse of fire. There are many other sources of heat and the map is being shown without scaling so there's no indication of temperature. NASA's kit is quite sensitive even at that range, so it can detect differences in heat caused by something as minor as a slightly shiny roof on a large building reflecting more sunlight than the ground around it. The map is useful for what it is, but unfortunately it's also useful for disseminating disinformation.

After some reading, it turns out that its an artists impression based on NASA data. Its been done by a guy called Anthony Hearsey.

'This is a 3D visualisation of the fires in Australia. NOT A PHOTO. Think of this a graph. This is made from data from NASA’s FIRMS (Satellite data regarding fires) between 05/12/19 - 05/01/20. These are all the areas which have been affected by bushfires. Additionally, similar information can be viewed on the Australian Website MyFireWatch
Scale is a little exaggerated due to the render’s glow, but generally true to the info from the NASA website. Also note that NOT all the areas are still burning, and this is a compilation.'

I thought it was a bit suss as we have no bushfires in the NT so far this year and very little of anything in December either

 

[Sankari]

Meanwhile, News Corp employee in sensible comment shocker!

A senior News Corp employee has accused the company of “misinformation” and diverting attention from climate change during the bushfire crisis in an explosive all-staff email addressed to executive chairman Michael Miller.

The email accuses News Corp papers, including the Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald Sun, of misrepresenting facts and spreading misinformation to focus on arson as the cause of the bushfires, rather than climate change.

The email was sent by Emily Townsend, a commercial finance manager at News Corp, in response to an all-staff email from Miller detailing the leave arrangements available to staff and announcing other bushfire-related initiatives.

“This does not offset the impact News Corp reporting has had over the last few weeks,” Townsend wrote. “I have been severely impacted by the coverage of News Corp publications in relation to the fires, in particular the misinformation campaign that has tried to divert attention away from the real issue which is climate change to rather focus on arson (including misrepresenting facts).

“I find it unconscionable to continue working for this company, knowing I am contributing to the spread of climate change denial and lies. The reporting I have witnessed in the Australian, the Daily Telegraph and the Herald Sun is not only irresponsible, but dangerous and damaging to our communities and beautiful planet that needs us more than ever now to acknowledge the destruction we have caused and start doing something about it.”

(Source).

 

[wesley]

how there were some fires on the kangaroo island? started by arsonist?

 

[Angilion]

So not only fires, It also shows where the towns/cities are and even, possibly, who is just having a big barbie!

Yes. It's not a fire map timelapse and it's disinformation to present it as such. The real situation is bad enough, but OMG LOOK AT THIS HORROR WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE (CLIMATE CHANGE VIRTUE SIGNALLING)! attracts more views and more anger and thus more status and power can be gained. Propaganda is commonplace in peacetime as well as wartime because it works.

The whole issue is also less simple than propaganda makes it out to be. Many parts of Australia have always been prone to fires and of course the fires have affected humans more since human population density has become far higher(*) and human infrastructure has become larger and more complex and more fragile. There have been a couple of even larger fires in Australia within well recorded history, with 1974 being much worse than this year in terms of the total area burnt. There's an argument that fire prevention has been badly underfunded in Australia in recent years and it seemed like a sound argument to me (though of course I can be fooled by propaganda and I have not properly researched the issue). But there are some differences over the last few years which fit with climate change. Some firefighters (and some of the people who organise firefighting) are reporting those differences and some scientists predicted those differences. Is it all confirmation bias? I doubt it. Many of these people are experienced at the sharp end and know what they're dealing with and what has changed and to what extent. A person who's 5000 miles away reading whatever increasingly biased selection of stories are fed to them by their confirmation bias company of choice (usually Google and/or Facebook) is easily fooled. A person who's been firefighting in the same area for 30 years and is going on their own observations and knowledge is rather less easily fooled.






* Australia's overall population density doesn't seem high, but it has areas of dense population and even the average is a lot higher than it was even a couple of hundred years ago let alone a couple of thousand years ago.

 

[Orionaut]

One of the things that is commented on in this story is the deposition of soot on NZ (And presumably, eventually, further afield in South America)

Now, It occurred to me. How many of these areas of fallout have ancient ice sheets going back thousands of years??

If so, is there any ice core data showing whether or not fires on this scale have happened in the past?

 

[StriderX]

One of the things that is commented on in this story is the deposition of soot on NZ (And presumably, eventually, further afield in South America)

Now, It occurred to me. How many of these areas of fallout have ancient ice sheets going back thousands of years??

If so, is there any ice core data showing whether or not fires on this scale have happened in the past?

What purpose would that serve to the people currently suffering the effects of it, today? Don't wish to be dismissive, more knowledge is always better than less knowledge.

 

[Efour]

One of the things that is commented on in this story is the deposition of soot on NZ (And presumably, eventually, further afield in South America)

Now, It occurred to me. How many of these areas of fallout have ancient ice sheets going back thousands of years??

If so, is there any ice core data showing whether or not fires on this scale have happened in the past?

Fires of "this scale" are nothing compared to the geological past when most of earth was nice burnable biomass.

 

[Angilion]

One of the things that is commented on in this story is the deposition of soot on NZ (And presumably, eventually, further afield in South America)

Now, It occurred to me. How many of these areas of fallout have ancient ice sheets going back thousands of years??

If so, is there any ice core data showing whether or not fires on this scale have happened in the past?

Yes and yes. And worse. And also much more material deposited from major volcanic activity. Some of them are so extreme that they're easily visible to the naked eye, which is a hell of of thing when they've been compressed by a vast weight of ice above them for many millenia.

Fires of "this scale" are nothing compared to the geological past when most of earth was nice burnable biomass.

And even worse during the late paleozoic, when oxygen levels were much higher and most of the Earth was burnable biomass. And giant bugs. Many, many giant bugs. Flying bugs with wingspans bigger than most birds.

 

[Efour]

I've seen centipede fossil tracks made by buggers as thick as your leg and 6x as hairy.

 

[Orionaut]

And even worse during the late paleozoic, when oxygen levels were much higher and most of the Earth was burnable biomass. And giant bugs. Many, many giant bugs. Flying bugs with wingspans bigger than most birds.

Another thing I have always wondered regarding this period.

The percentage of various gasses in the atmosphere changes over time.

Charts showing what these changes are reckoned to be seem easy to find.

However, It wasnt just the composition of the atmosphere that will have changed over time, The earths overall atmospheric pressure will have changed too. Possibly by really quite large amounts. I have not ever been able to find charts showing these changes over time. If anybody knows where these could be found I would be interested.

(There are for instance, Many "Atmospheres" worth of CO2 locked up in carbonate rocks around the globe. And that is just one type of mineral that will be composed of materials drawn from the early atmosphere. When life first got going on earth it was a very different place indeed!)

 

[Sankari]

Meanwhile, in other news you won't find on conservative media...

Only about 1 per cent of the land burnt in NSW this bushfire season can be officially attributed to arson, and it is even less in Victoria, the ABC can reveal.

...NSW Rural Fire Service (RFS) Inspector Ben Shepherd said earlier this week lightning was predominantly responsible for the bushfire crisis.

"I can confidently say the majority of the larger fires that we have been dealing with have been a result of fires coming out of remote areas as a result of dry lightning storms," he said.

In Victoria, where about 1.2 million hectares has burned, only 385 hectares — or 0.03 per cent — have been attributed to suspicious circumstances.

(Source).

 

[Sankari]

This bloke on Kangaroo Island decided to stay and fight the fire.

I don't know if he's gutsy or just plain mad.

Current state of Kangaroo Island:

 

[Orionaut]

This bloke on Kangaroo Island decided to stay and fight the fire.

I don't know if he's gutsy or just plain mad.

****!

That must have been bloody terrifying. Amazed at how everybody seems so calm

I am guessing that he set up sprinklers/spray bars around the site fed from that pump that was mentioinad and could be heard running.

But damn that was close!

I am amazed at how unscathed the house was. Did he actually build it to be fire resistant? (EG tin roof, insulated and with plasterboard or something similar cladding the outside of the house?)

Mind, I was half expecting him to say

"Just go out and turn the steaks over and grab a couple of tinnys from the cooler"

Right in the middle of all that!

 

[Sankari]

I am guessing that he set up sprinklers/spray bars around the site fed from that pump that was mentioinad and could be heard running.

Yep, he had made his preparations and they were sound.

I am amazed at how unscathed the house was. Did he actually build it to be fire resistant? (EG tin roof, insulated and with plasterboard or something similar cladding the outside of the house?)

As far as I know it was just a regular house with an added sprinkler system for fire protection. It proves you can successfully defend your property if you're well prepared and know what you're doing. But as you can see, everything outside was completely destroyed. The fire is literally unstoppable; if you've chosen to stay, all you can do is ride it out and hope your defences are strong enough.

A single broken window could have been enough to doom the entire building.

 

[NVP]

Aircraft are being used to drop thousands of kilograms of carrots and sweet potato to hungry wildlife stranded amid the Australian bushfire crisis.

The New South Wales government commissioned the service titled ‘Operation Rock Wallaby’ which aims to feed the state’s colonies of brush-tailed rock wallabies and help the state’s population of marsupials survive.

A week ago the New South Wales National Parks and Wildlife Service began its mission undertaking the food drops in the Capertree and Wolgan valleys, Yengo National Park, the Kangeroo Valley, and around Jenolan, Oxley Wild Rivers and Currancubundi national parks.

Article

Spoiler

 

[FoxEye]

Only 24 confirmed as arson, out of ~150 fires nationwide.

Only 24...? Is arson the national pastime of Australia or something?

 

[LeMson]

1 is shocking, 24 is :O

 

[Sankari]

Only 24...? Is arson the national pastime of Australia or something?

24 incidents over 4 months during bushfire season is pretty good, believe it or not.

A study by Mayhew (2003) estimated that arson costs Australia $1.35b a year, but noted that it is difficult to detect and that criminal intent in a fire is difficult to prove. It is likely that many deliberately lit fires are not recognised as arson, and that for many of those that are, an offender is never identified or held responsible.

Police crime statistics from NSW suggest that the rate of recorded arson incidents is increasing, from 81.5 per 100,000 population in 2003 to 92.5 per 100,000 in 2004 and 95.7 per 100,000 in 2005 (Moffatt, Goh & Poynton 2006). It is not possible to determine to what extent this increase reflects a true increase in arson, or simply improved detection rates. South Australia, in contrast, has seen a slight decrease in the number of arson incidents since 2002 (OCSAR 2006).

(Source).

Many of those will be small scale stuff, quickly extinguished. Only a few will be directly linked to the big fires.

The worst part is that some arsonists are firefighters themselves.

'How a Volunteer Firefighter Became a Serial Arsonist.'

Most studies investigating motives for arson have noted the phenomenon of fires being lit by the very people entrusted by the community with fighting them. The incidence of malicious firesetting by firefighters is invariably portrayed in the literature as quite rare, although direct research is limited.

The NSW police service's Strikeforce Tronto investigated some 1,500 suspicious fires from 2001 to 2004. It resulted in 50 people being charged, 11 of them volunteer firefighters. To keep this in perspective, the 11 firefighters were from a population of 69,000 NSW Rural Fire Service members.

(Source).