IMO Ferrari/Alonso are the team/driver to watch. They have now settled on a sustained, incremental update program, which has worked so well for McLaren; so no big updates for them. Expect Ferrari/Alonso to gradually rise up the WDC table.
If I was Ferrari I would be worried. They are on their 2nd race with the blown diffuser, running at the circuit which really favours that design and yet are over .7s behind the RBR and barely .1 ahead of a car which is more at home on slow corners and fast straights. Their 2nd driver only just made it into 7th ahead of a Williams and is behind one of the Mercs.