Soldato
- Joined
- 13 Jul 2004
- Posts
- 20,341
- Location
- Stanley Hotel, Colorado
esl yea
8esport you can bet ages before and cancel if you change your mind. Not perfect but less hassle.
I thought the smart bet was TSM on those odds but I was told VP will take it. So I put low tsm on lounge and vp medium on 8esport because there % was closer to 50/50
such indecision but only chucking on really yucky skins in the main
VP I guess have the upperhand on mirage but TSM seem more linear where VP need confidence in their strats, setup or something
ement
VP vs TSM
So this is the grand finals of the Dubai LAN and the winner gets $100k USD. So yeah both teams are really going to want this. We saw TSM beat NIP 2-1 and VP beat fnatic 2-1 to get here. It's kind of funny, these teams were in the semi finals at Cologne on different sides of the bracket but both lost, now they get to play that match lol. Both teams have beaten NIP and fnatic to get here. These teams actually met about two weeks ago at PGL Season 1 in a BO5 where VP won 3-2. So let's get into maps now.
**Maps**
VP will ban D2, it's their go to and TSM's best map. But they could opt to ban cbbl as they've had bad results on it. If I were them that's what I'd do, but they'll probably ban D2.
TSM will probably ban train, but this could go to cache or cbbl, but I expect train. I only say cbbl because they did last time but VP has seemed weak there.
So we have Cache, Overpass, cbbl, Mirage, and inferno. Map by map odds -
Cache 60-40 VP, they've looked so strong on it 16-4ing fnatic and 16-7 EnVy.
Overpass 55-45 VP, they did lose it last time but these teams are pretty even on this map.
Inferno 60-40 VP, their inferno is so strong.
Mirage 55-45 for VP again, they're looking great on it.
Cbbl 60-40 for TSM, VP has looked poor on it while TSM is pretty decent on it.
D2 55-45 for TSM
So these maps strongly favor VP, both from a historical perspective and including current form.
**TSM**
TSM have had some pretty great moments so far in this tournament. They, like VP, are undefeated. Let's take a look at their wins so far.
+ 16-10 over Na'Vi on Overpass
+ 19-17 over fnatic on D2
+ 16-7 loss on D2 vs NIP on D2
16-8 win on Mirage
16-10 win on inferno
So great results, beating NIP, Na'Vi and fnatic. All great T1 teams who were playing great. Except Na'Vi, who are in a major slump and played really bad here. They are having some issues lately. And oh yeah, NIP really isn't that great anymore. They may have played great on D2 and the beginning of Mirage, but after that pause their momentum was gone and they went back to playing not so stellar. And that win over fnatic was in a BO1, but still impressive, both teams played amazing. So while these are good results they aren't as good as what I'd say VP's are at Dubai, and they seemed to struggle vs NIP pretty hard, along with a little fight from Na'Vi making it a little close. Watching that game vs fnatic gave me a lot of respect for this team, they're five great players who have great synergy.
**VP**
VP have played absolutely stellar at Dubai and without a doubt better than any other team, to me at least. Let's look at their games.
+ 16-7 vs NIP on Mirage
+ 16-7 win vs EnVy on cache
+ 16-7 loss on cbbl to fnatic
16-7 win on train
16-4 win on cache
Wow, these are some matches. They started T side on Mirage and won the half vs NIP, then locked them out the rest of the game and didn't drop a single round on CT side. Then they go on to face EnVy on cache and 15-0 them as T's on cache. W.T.F. Who could possibly do this. I think after losing pistol they just kind of let it go as they knew they'd win. Then they stomped fnatic in a BO3. fnatic are monsters on cbbl and VP kind of suck on it, so this was expected and the same result as semi's at Cologne. Que, "haha Modest you called 50-50 for this game gg nice sway" Then BAM VP ****ing wrecks fnatic on train. You're thinking well okay, fnatic has looked poor on train recently and it's VP's home (both are tru) I can see that. Cache should be closer. NOPE. 16-4 VP skip right over JW on their way to the finals like he did that molly. Fnatic wasn't playing bad, VP just gave them literally no chance. There were a couple close rounds where VP players 1v2'd and won it, but you know what that proves how solid all five of their players are. All have been performing excellent at this LAN and I don't expect them to stop. The best part about this team and why I love them is how just positive they are and great people they seem to be. I respect them more than probably anyone else in the scene. *family show*
**Overall Thoughts**
The Virtus.snow.plow has started down the hill and TSM stand in between it and the bottom. The VP hype train has left the station and is headed full steam towards TSM. I think you get it. But all jokes aside while I do favor VP heavily here this is still a risky match between two T1 teams who are playing great. But between VP's recent form, the map pool, and TSM's slight struggles that we've seen I can't help but feel VP is going to take this 3-1, maybe 3-0 if cbbl isn't played first.
**Risk:** low
**My odds:** 100-0 VP
**My bet:** My house on VP if odds stay under 99%, if not then icb on TSM
I hope you guys enjoyed this analysis and can benefit from it. Best of luck on your bets.
Thanks for the read
Oh yeah, **Risk:** high, **odds** 65-35 for VP, and **My bet:** Probably around 15% unless VP goes over 65, small TSM if they're under 30. Goodluck
8esport you can bet ages before and cancel if you change your mind. Not perfect but less hassle.
I thought the smart bet was TSM on those odds but I was told VP will take it. So I put low tsm on lounge and vp medium on 8esport because there % was closer to 50/50
such indecision but only chucking on really yucky skins in the mainVP I guess have the upperhand on mirage but TSM seem more linear where VP need confidence in their strats, setup or something
ement
VP vs TSM
So this is the grand finals of the Dubai LAN and the winner gets $100k USD. So yeah both teams are really going to want this. We saw TSM beat NIP 2-1 and VP beat fnatic 2-1 to get here. It's kind of funny, these teams were in the semi finals at Cologne on different sides of the bracket but both lost, now they get to play that match lol. Both teams have beaten NIP and fnatic to get here. These teams actually met about two weeks ago at PGL Season 1 in a BO5 where VP won 3-2. So let's get into maps now.
**Maps**
VP will ban D2, it's their go to and TSM's best map. But they could opt to ban cbbl as they've had bad results on it. If I were them that's what I'd do, but they'll probably ban D2.
TSM will probably ban train, but this could go to cache or cbbl, but I expect train. I only say cbbl because they did last time but VP has seemed weak there.
So we have Cache, Overpass, cbbl, Mirage, and inferno. Map by map odds -
Cache 60-40 VP, they've looked so strong on it 16-4ing fnatic and 16-7 EnVy.
Overpass 55-45 VP, they did lose it last time but these teams are pretty even on this map.
Inferno 60-40 VP, their inferno is so strong.
Mirage 55-45 for VP again, they're looking great on it.
Cbbl 60-40 for TSM, VP has looked poor on it while TSM is pretty decent on it.
D2 55-45 for TSM
So these maps strongly favor VP, both from a historical perspective and including current form.
**TSM**
TSM have had some pretty great moments so far in this tournament. They, like VP, are undefeated. Let's take a look at their wins so far.
+ 16-10 over Na'Vi on Overpass
+ 19-17 over fnatic on D2
+ 16-7 loss on D2 vs NIP on D2
16-8 win on Mirage
16-10 win on inferno
So great results, beating NIP, Na'Vi and fnatic. All great T1 teams who were playing great. Except Na'Vi, who are in a major slump and played really bad here. They are having some issues lately. And oh yeah, NIP really isn't that great anymore. They may have played great on D2 and the beginning of Mirage, but after that pause their momentum was gone and they went back to playing not so stellar. And that win over fnatic was in a BO1, but still impressive, both teams played amazing. So while these are good results they aren't as good as what I'd say VP's are at Dubai, and they seemed to struggle vs NIP pretty hard, along with a little fight from Na'Vi making it a little close. Watching that game vs fnatic gave me a lot of respect for this team, they're five great players who have great synergy.
**VP**
VP have played absolutely stellar at Dubai and without a doubt better than any other team, to me at least. Let's look at their games.
+ 16-7 vs NIP on Mirage
+ 16-7 win vs EnVy on cache
+ 16-7 loss on cbbl to fnatic
16-7 win on train
16-4 win on cache
Wow, these are some matches. They started T side on Mirage and won the half vs NIP, then locked them out the rest of the game and didn't drop a single round on CT side. Then they go on to face EnVy on cache and 15-0 them as T's on cache. W.T.F. Who could possibly do this. I think after losing pistol they just kind of let it go as they knew they'd win. Then they stomped fnatic in a BO3. fnatic are monsters on cbbl and VP kind of suck on it, so this was expected and the same result as semi's at Cologne. Que, "haha Modest you called 50-50 for this game gg nice sway" Then BAM VP ****ing wrecks fnatic on train. You're thinking well okay, fnatic has looked poor on train recently and it's VP's home (both are tru) I can see that. Cache should be closer. NOPE. 16-4 VP skip right over JW on their way to the finals like he did that molly. Fnatic wasn't playing bad, VP just gave them literally no chance. There were a couple close rounds where VP players 1v2'd and won it, but you know what that proves how solid all five of their players are. All have been performing excellent at this LAN and I don't expect them to stop. The best part about this team and why I love them is how just positive they are and great people they seem to be. I respect them more than probably anyone else in the scene. *family show*
**Overall Thoughts**
The Virtus.snow.plow has started down the hill and TSM stand in between it and the bottom. The VP hype train has left the station and is headed full steam towards TSM. I think you get it. But all jokes aside while I do favor VP heavily here this is still a risky match between two T1 teams who are playing great. But between VP's recent form, the map pool, and TSM's slight struggles that we've seen I can't help but feel VP is going to take this 3-1, maybe 3-0 if cbbl isn't played first.
**Risk:** low
**My odds:** 100-0 VP
**My bet:** My house on VP if odds stay under 99%, if not then icb on TSM
I hope you guys enjoyed this analysis and can benefit from it. Best of luck on your bets.
Thanks for the read
Oh yeah, **Risk:** high, **odds** 65-35 for VP, and **My bet:** Probably around 15% unless VP goes over 65, small TSM if they're under 30. Goodluck
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Just add everyone from the spreadsheet close to your rank and they can always choose to ignore if you try to invite to a lobby and they busy
